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Optiva - indicative 12.1p (conservative 6p)
If another deal lands then i would say 12p would be a conservative target, all dependent on what the BOD are working on of course but could easily hit 20p. aimho
@Truth - £44k seems a fairly large vote of confidence, what changed your mind after backing UOG? (“looks like the better value to here without the risk” you said recently…)
Brokers notes posted below - worth a bump for anyone newly invested...
Tennyson - NAV 8.0p
Optiva - indicative 12.1p (conservative 6p)
Thanks for posting the assessment, that's helpful, saved me some digging.
optiva note
https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1091/advance_energy_company_update_21_april_2021_-1.pdf
In January 2021, we calculated that ADV’s 50% net interest in Buffalo could be worth up to US$165m, based on a successful appraisal well and subsequent development project. With the inclusion of free cash available to the Company, this generates an indicative valuation of 12.1p per share.
https://www.advanceplc.com/media/1081/210420_recipe-for-success-2.pdf
tennyson note
Attractive valuation: Based on Carnarvon’s preliminary field development plan, Advance’s 50% stake will yield peak net production of c.19,000 bopd, with annual net cash flow of c.US$187m at US$60/bbl Brent, and over US$200m at US$65/bbl. This leads to impressive project IRRs of 106% at US$60/bbl oil. We value barrels in the ground at US$12.2/bbl, implying
net unrisked value of US$209m (12.6p/shr). After accounting for corporate adjustments and project risks (factoring in future dilution etc.) this leads to a risked Total NAV of 8.0p/shr – over 3x the current share price.
SI - 12P would be amazing1 I'm holding on to thoese long term witout a doubt, it'd be great to see that level! everything seems to be liing up with ADV, I'm impressed with all that I've heard and read about the company and the. Our patience will be rewarded
Weonin, only time will tell but I think that if you hold this for a year or two we will be higher than 8p. The two broker notes indicate 12p in case of success on Buffalo alone and I have no doubt that some of the other 4-5 deals they are looking at will also materialise in that timeframe. Accumulate and wait patiently is the name of the game for me.
On the London Stock Exchange
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ADV/advance-energy-plc/trade-recap?page=2
Where are you seeing these flags/comments? Can't see them on the trades here?
There's some odd trade flags and 'venue of publication' comments regarding these big trades... what does ECHO mean??? I've looked up and it says not to be used by firms.
Agreed SI - So much potential here, I'm in for the long haul but fi ADV gets somewhere around the 8p mark it'll be life changing for me. All the best to everyone invested
Clearly DYOR, but as mentioned before I remain of the idea that this is an incredible opportunity for patient investors and that's why I have been topping up each week. I don't care if the rig RNS comes out this week or next week or even in July, but it will come and confirm drill in Q4. From the RNS onwards investors will come in and the price will only move up thereafter, as the Buffalo CoS are impressive and the cash flow generation, especially over the first two years of production, just incredible for a small cap. Remember what is key in any successful investment is to buy into a proposition which has a great reward potential, if you can bear the risks, and to purchase at a low price. This is the opportunity set here and these don't come around often in my books.