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An utter disaster and people still talking about salvaging something. Get into something else. Two stocks moving at the moment, Bloe and Char
@sdg1970..Is that where you decided on the free ride tactic, I wonder if its the same 12m, something else to check out.. been reading brokers note, seems reasonable, no crazy COS, but I have a lot to learn :)
... luckily for me I stuck with your advice here too...but need to take that 10% as well :)
@DAI: Jeez, beeleez, MATD - I remember having a dabble on their mid-2010 drill in Mongolia. I recall they found 12m net pay and the shares rocketed. 40p - £1.20 I think I got out. I then lost it all on DES, lol. Not sure what they're doing now (MATD) though I'm out of oil stocks and have been since FOGL disappeared into RKH. Shocking stuff here btw..
You'd have to be high on crack cocaine to buy here now, and even then it night not seem like such a good idea.
@DBD, Thanks for all the points :)
I am going to have a good read again to pick up all your points.. Also noticed oil was waxy, not premium grade, and mentions of wanting to be guaranteed access, but not sure where.. Talk of improving and speeding up red tape..Maybe the seasons limiting the working window...
I actually decided to sell to protect profit today, BP... pulling people out of the embassies is not a good sign, and if Russia wants to invade Nato won't commit forces...especially after they have made their move...
I remember a poster saying they sold, because others would sell on the news, so an opportunity to buy back cheaper, think that was on He1..
@Dai
Ive come across this field. It was doing the rounds many moons back.
Quick read of the doc:
Upside:
1. Near term production if they can get the contract in place and kick off production in time. They didnt say when they expect 1st oil, only when ops for development may start. But its only 1+2 land wells with a small facilities planned for so ~ 12 months (?) or thereabouts ?
2. First (early) movers advantage
3. Upside in their licenses in addition to their base case
4. Motivated commodity buyer
5. Funds already raised for development.
6. Heron base only sp target of 10.1p is great (2x relative to now) at the oil price used.
Downside:
1. Location
2. Supply chain access (cost will be high and index is shooting up)
3. Trucking (cost, distance, capacity of storage)
4. Uptime will be impacted by item 3
5. Can they manage the development cost without it spiralling?
6. Their sp just tanked, liked a lot of things this afternoon (VIX shot up to 30 so no surprises there)
I suspect if you want in, the entry point is coming soon. It might just touch 3-3.2. But who knows.
I wont invest at the moment but might dip in a small amount as a marker and monitor (thanks for the heads up Dai). I suspect the sp might move sideways until contracts signed and ops plan kicks off. So there could other entry points. But overall i am not keen to invest due to location and challenges it comes with, i am a bit more risk averse at the moment seeing how VIX shot up to 30 this afternoon.
@DBD, let me know what you think, I am 50/50 at the moment on what I have seen
https://www.petromatadgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/MATD-20220119-Promising-outlook-for-2022.pdf
@dai
Yes please, do share.
I had a few CEO's of oil co start ups (with assets, development mainly) approaching me for seed fund last quarter, i said no to all.
@DBD, worked it out to be 1:94400..
I have been reading about an oil company in a position to start developing production this year, no rig yet, red tape slowing things, also looking for possible partner but not a needed... interested in a read?
@dai
Thanks for that, i had a quick read. Scary outcome, the guy got diluted everytime it became a shell, twice. And the dilution--
1:400, then 1: 236.
Yikes.
haha HE1 - another ramp by the CEO and everyone lose a wedge. If you bought at the spiked high and loose mid Jan you would be down 75%
Another case of ramping, CEO over promising, huge losses
@DBD
Take a look at this post on He1 "An outsiders view' poster today 01:43", thought I would mention it.. Think it could relate a little to your option 3, but maybe not, it is not quite the same, but thought it will only take a minute to read, so why not mention..
mannan, exactly the same as BPC/CEG and loads more on aim, these companies never die they just get reborn with a new name and new shareholders whilst the original lth's always get wiped out.
“Don’t think about failure just think about success” that line will haunt him forever….all his talk of the years of experience he has and yet he showed a huge lack of experience with that approach.
Good luck in whatever strategy you decide to go with but I’ll not be buying back in here….time to look for some covid hit stocks that might recover now as we might be heading out of this pandemic soon. I’m done with wildcat drillers that’s for sure.
CEB RESOURCE ...Andalas Energy ......now ..Advance Energy
failed after failed ..
DBD there could be also an element of equity, but one asset seems to require primarily vendor debt from the last RNS. Let's see, but I would expect them to RTO into a producing asset of a certain magnitude, as these guys are definitively not looking into a 500 bopd asset, which could emulate the first deals done by RRE and even with some dilution the upside from a £2mio mcap company would be significant. They clearly have to change strategy post Buffalo and I expect them to do so and also hopefully announce what 'cost cutting' measures they are taking and really push quickly forward to close another deal, enough from me and will leave other to comment, as I will retain my holding and wait even more patiently.
Its highly unlikely they will be able to bring in a debt financed deal only, for one there is very limited working capital left in the business. The question now is at what can Advance bring to the table as non-operator - while Buffalo was still a prospect or better still proven, there would have been a market cap giving access to capital, so they could bring capital as a non-operator to support development of underinvested assets - now with a market cap of single figure digits its difficult to see what could be brought.
Best case they find an accretive deal where the existing production is debt funded and they can arrange equity financing in the background directly so it is no a desperate cashcall to bucket shops. My worry is they have missed the boat here, that was possible in the aftermath of Covid with oil prices depressed but marginal non-core fields will now be cash generative and is turning from a buyers market to a sellers market.
When you didn’t think it could get any worse
"There will be new equity raise should they decide to pursue a production deal / RTO".
Typo. Bloody phone...
@SI
Agree with most of your point, but for debt financing on a producing asset they will require equity, 30-40%, in order to leverage debt for the remainder.
There will be new equity raise.l should they decide to pursue a production deal / RTO
As mentioned before this is now a shell with a MCAP of £2-2.5mio and a similar amount of cash, but at advanced stage of negotiating accretive deals. The ideal one would clearly be the production asset with debt financing as it wouldn't entail equity dilution and provide a larger re rate. So look at it as a different proposition ie very risky but conversely one with an even greater upside potential because we are at a much lower MCAP. There will be people who can take this risk and buy here, others like me who are not selling a very large amount of shares (hence reducing the free float) and others who are unbale to take the risk and probably have exited by now. But do remember that there are many who pump cash shells with no exact asset in a negotiation stage but which trade twice the cash level. DYOR