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Looking good to me.
Have signed up for carnarvon notifications.
Imo if drilling goes to plan it will be very interesting to see the sp rerated.
Hoping for at least 300% increase from current sp.
It's steps.
At the moment we have a fully funded drill, rig contracted and spud early November. We also have circa $7m in cash. We don't have the oil to sell. At this stage we have an 86% CoS of going into production.
By the middle of December we should given the 95% CoS have oil in the ground of sufficient quality/quantity to produce 20,000bopd. At this stage the CoS of going into production rises to 90.25%.
We will then attain finance to produce the oil. At this stage the CoS of going into production is 95%.
Legally binding contracts are then signed for the vessels to store the oil/production unit etc. Now we are 100% going into production.
The key point is that some investors see needing the finance to move things forward as a negative. If securing that finance also involves equity being issued then more so. But in this case, as opposed to say an explorer raising funds for an exploration drill or a nefarious CEO who raises funds but doesn't seem to get anywhere with those funds we know that the money is definitively going to make significantly more money. We will have reached the point whereby there is no debate on that outcome (barring oil going below $35.
Finance obtained in our expected near term circumstances is not a negative but value enhancing. I'm looking forward to the day when finance (debt plus equity) is announced.
Section 4.3.1 of CPR clearly mentions a 3 well development @ 49.1MM USD cost. Total capex to bring to production is $125MM (145-20; 20 being the appraisal well already funded).
Downside: Watch out for cost of rigs creeping up which generally follows oil price.
Upside: if appraisal well results are great, they might only need 2 wells which brings total capex down by 26MM.
Please read CPR and DYOR.
"And so your point is??"
What you just said
Yes it will be 20,000bopd over 3 or 4 wells, so maybe 'only' 5000bopd on this well..!
ADV are responsible for arranging the financing for the full development but they will pay 50/50 with Carnarvon not the whole lot. They will then drill the rest of the wells targeting the 20,000bopd within a year.
And so your point is??
Spot on Spike.
"@spike501 you talking nonsense. I can tell you want a lower entry. Buffalo 10 is gonna be great, even if they need to raise funds, it will be very profitable and mCap could be x5 or x10 in a few years if not earlier...."
What nonsense am I talking - this well does not deliver 20,000bopd, true or false?
To deliver 20,000bopd requires substantial further development investment, true or false?
If either of those statements are false I'll admit i'm talking nonsense.
Actually took a nice position yesterday - I'm in Jadestone, had taken a look at this before, but hadn't realised the rig goes from Skua directly here, kindly highlighted by saint-tropez.
Don't see any reason for this board to tolerate misleading stuff though, positive or negative
Whilst I agree spud impact on sp might be overrated a bit we should still sees premium I’d say anything between about 4 to 7p
The real money however is going to be at tge turn if the year when we see tge results of the drill - to be fair Leslie Peterkin has always maintained that that’s when we might see some good “investor value”
Personally I’m coming into a very nice extra windfall early November to tge tune if £20 grand; I’d seriously consider ploughing it all here if tge sp is anywhere near 5p. My only hesitancy is that I could leave that £20k where it is to gain a cool £50 k by end 2023
@spike501 you talking nonsense. I can tell you want a lower entry. Buffalo 10 is gonna be great, even if they need to raise funds, it will be very profitable and mCap could be x5 or x10 in a few years if not earlier....
Agree with you SI. 5p achievable pre-spud.
I have personal target here of 5.9p.
That's a personal milestone for my Sipp, but I think this could go well beyond 6p over the next 18 months if things go to plan.
Let’s see Oiler, I think we will break and see 5p around spud/drill. Patience needed as usual, this is just the start of our journey.
"With an 85% redevelopment that will deliver ADV with 20,000bpd only weeks out"
It won't though - this drill is to prove that a 20,000bopd development is viable, but development of that is still going to take many tens of millions of dollars that ADV are responsible for.
Unable to hold a rise?
A couple of months ago we were in 2-2.5 range. Now in 3-3.6 range.
That's 50% rise.
The next leg up will come and those who got in 2-2.5 range will be on close to 100% profit.
Mossa, all shares are "trader shares". people buy and then people sell, the only thing difference is how long the individual holds the share.
This whole differentiation between "share holders" and "Traders" is vastly over done on these BB's in my estimation. It just seems a divisive device to create unnecessary tension.
From the short time I have been here, this seems to be a traders share, low SP, lots of shares in circulation, a shame really there is a good story here, hopefully it will settle down.
surely even before drilling, our sp should be north of 5p !!