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Haha I'm by far not the longest standing holder hear but it's feels like an eternity lot of false dawns .....this does seem different
You Newbie! WHAT About AMD XXI DId like Jaco
Yep I've been heavy in this share for about 8 years from coal brickettes to gold mines and termites and have 2m plus shares and I've held for a long long time and just feel the currentet news isn't been
Yes sorry it was a general point on the T/O and not specific with ACP but I have seen elsewhere people say 'wait till production' and plenty of miners that isn't good advice - explorers do get the best assets bought up. I agree ACP is unlikely to be a target, at least not until it is producing.
On project level finance - the $39m or so capex and the IRR of the project I think make it a formality if you believe that then you should already be positioned for 'finance is around the corner'. It has taken Horizonte 3 years since they appointed their agent for finance to get the mine financed (and it isn't, yet). I think Armadale can do it around 10x faster. Of course when we know those terms you can assign a proper NPV/share value to the stock but expecting to buy after that gets announced you have to expect to buy at a higher price. So if you believe finance terms will be good, buy now.
I doubt the majors will want to tangle with large Chinese-govt backed entities already associated with ACP. Takeover talk is a perennial favourite of PI chat rooms but rarely happens. What will really drive the value creation process here is project level funding being secured, and first construction.
Notwithstanding the offer that comes to buy the company. There is always a % chance of an offer coming at any point, then you can wait for production all you want, if the company gets taken out at some multiple of the prevailing shareprice. Got to be a serious chance of that in the coming cycle for commodities, I'm not singling ACP out as a particular target here (till at least production), but majors will be looking to buy good assets all the time...
>>"If you haven’t got a 1-2 year view to hold this share you’re in the wrong share"
I agree
>>"we should be at many multiples from today’s price but this will only come once production is flowing"
I disagree
Markets are notoriously imperfect and AIM is notoriously less perfect than other markets but we CAN be at multiples from todays price well ahead of production. As others point out, this may require PR, it may require offtakes, finance complete whatever and is never guaranteed. But I firmly believe the time to take a position is early and waiting for production - you are NOT guaranteed an entry. Not below multiples of todays price.
Smurfff - most realistic and sensible view I've seen on this board.
If you haven’t got a 1-2 year view to hold this share you’re in the wrong share - put simply we should be at many multiples from today’s price but this will only come once production is flowing which is probably anywhere from 1-2 years away.
Fluctuations in price shouldn’t matter between now and then.
hahaha i was joking about being out over weekend....
"wouldnt want to be out over the weekend though could news could land anytime i guess" - Comedy Gold.
Frustration as previous comments today, PR team is beyond a joke ACP.
They predicted the ML before elections October 2020. Almost a year later.
No news flow in between other than twitter updates on commodity prices. Close to being done from the company would mean months not days or weeks.
Solicitors are uselessly slow t the best of times.
So definitely out of this over the weekend!
top up opportunity for sure - good move i believe
THe delta between the ML award and any other news is growing its certainly not followed on the back of it which is super disappointing - im sure they will come but they are not managing the media and interest in the project.
In addition the new presentation on the website wouls have expected that to be shared more widly
ML is big news it allows all next steps to take place and we have had interviews in the past on a lot less news - just not how id expect a company to interact with its investors and potential investors etc. wouldnt want to be out over the weekend though could news could land anytime i guess
That's two separate things:
- what to communicate after the event (mining licence formally awarded), and how and
- what to communicate as a process is taking place
With the ML they can't communicate the process as it is taking place because until the ML is formally confirmed it is pretty irrelevant what stage it is at - the company can't mine. With the offtakes and so forth these are obviously highly sensitive discussions under NDA and again - you can't communicate progress (except at very high level e.g. HZM saying 'offtake discussions advancing well'). With legally binding agreements you announce them when they are - legally signed.
The other point is once signed then you can shout about them, obviously. Should they have made a bigger deal of PR on the ML? Maybe but if the other news is soon and it is big news it probably doesn't matter too much. Certainly enabled another 'top up' which I took gratefully.
Yep totally agree the reciept of ML should have meant interviews and media as its big news
Feeling the frustration of not being communicated too? An example was the mining license. They had it in hand but didn’t communicate it was literally nearly at the end of the process. I think the same is happening for offtakes and finance. Better managed PR and communication would do all of us and the SP a world of good.