Alien Metals Share Price (UFO)

I have said many times look at the Fenix example they went out there found a buyer negotiated a deal to pay it back by discounting per ton and in 12months had paid it back and were siting on a profit. They have already said they have the contractors and the costing all they have to do is go to China find the buyer and away we go. Or just JV it lol.

944T

Not really worried either way, it is what it is.

Alien Metals could be a marginal producer with low capex and high production cost, reasonable annual tonnage, decent mine life, with plenty of room to grow the resource. Fabulous infrastructure and great jurisdiction, in a commodity that will be in high demand for decades with build out of the words move to electrification. This means we have huge operational leverage, and will boom and bust with iron ore price, giving volatility to the share price.

OR

We JV and have done with all the worry, take our cut for all the hard work over the last 5 years (often it takes 10), all the stresses just go away, and we crack on as a revenue and cash flow generating company and develop the rest of JV our critical and battery metals portfolio.

Not trying to talk anyone into buying or holding here, as in the main what any of us say, won’t affect the success or failure of my investment. I’m only here the sentiment and community camaraderie.

Good evening one and all.

Fenix is a great example. Look at how they have hedged as prices have moved up. Trouble is we can’t hedge yet. It’s a perfect example of where UFO should be if we had been mining a year ago. I agree!

Well said Smiller.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/bulk-buys-how-iron-ore-junior-fenix-resources-sees-a-pathway-to-a-long-term-future/

DEMAND

Those with lower grades may want higher grades to blend.

What about Fortescue's low grade iron ore?

The bad news for Fortescue is that the broker believes that the discount will widen on its low grade iron ore in the coming years.

And given how much the miner is planning to spend on its decarbonisation plans, this could have consequences for its free cash flow and ultimately its dividends.

Goldman expects Fortescue's discount to the benchmark price to be 89% in 2024, 86% in 2025, and 83% in 2026 and 2027.

PRICE

FE62% regulates and fluctuates between a range through supply and demand.

https://markets.ft.com/data/commodities/tearsheet/summary?c=Iron%20ore

AUD/FE divergence

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/215/aud-iron-ore

Higher highs and higher lows in Global Iron Ore price.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIORECRUSDM

MACRO ENVIRONMENT

Commodity prices and stagflation empirical study.

Our analysis suggests that the individual stagflationary effects of commodity prices and the dollar on non-commodity export-dependent economies have compounded each other over this period as the two variables increased in tandem. This was a break from the historical pattern, when commodity prices and dollar used to move in opposite directions, so that their individual effects on stagflation risk tended to offset each other.

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2303f.htm

FOB, C1, AISC

Old FMG study from 2015 says 12% of their cost comes from Oil price.

https://fiig.com.au/research-and-education/fiig-research-news-item/2016/11/23/fortescue---explaining-the-various-cost-and-price-metrics

C1 $20+ in 2021.

https://www.australianresourcesandinvestment.com.au/2021/10/29/fortescue-consolidates-costs-as-iron-ore-shipments-peak/

Alwyn said we can make money above $85! I believe the current average Iron ore price fluctuates could be $100. I believe JV partner will mine the ore much cheaper than our AISC. I believe JV partners will drive a hard bargain, but the Ore will get mined and Alien Metals will be transformed from a loss making business that dilutes about £2m per annum to a revenue and cash flow generating business. I have nothing more hopeful I can say than that and I have no idea what the share price will be.