RE: At least with TXP there is some hopeToday 15:39
I’m guessing TXP’s price dropped cause their share holders may have an idea of just how bad TRIN is and the acquisition wouldn’t most likely have any near-term value add options.
1) TRIN’s reserves at the 2P level have been reduced and figures have shifted into 2C level according to the oak bloke blog post. Perhaps they were overly optimistic in the past about their actual capabilities so I see this as a bad sign.
2) In the past few years, they’ve hired more and more foreign direct and indirect executives yet the company itself hasn’t developed further in output. Production continues to decline at a rate of 10% or more.
3) They have paid $8mln for Jacobin which I think is quite a bit over the original budget, why wasn’t a stop loss marker of sorts put into place? Provided those depths hadn’t been tested yet but the entire T&T region is highly mature they should have known with the ongoing geopolitical risks and other local unknowns that the value they could have realistically gotten from this endeavour would be unlikely.
4) They need to take as much upside as they can get yet they royally screwed up by getting too greedy with financial instruments in 2022. The executives should have never in my opinion allowed the company to take out such instruments. Having open-ended unlimited obligations is the worst thing they could have done. Sure they didn’t know what oil prices would have been at the time, but they could have paid for a simple put/put spread instrument to protect their down side from the very beginning. If they didn’t have the cash to cover it all they could have reduced the period of coverage or the amount of production hedged.
5) The Galeota fire incident I’m sure would have set them back as well. A lot of the T&T infrastructure is more than likely very aged. So repairing and implementing updated systems to deal with this issue would have been another factor to consider that has taken away a chunk of their cash
6) Paying to fix or investigate the cyber-attack issue would be another concern. Provided that they are an oil company and can’t seem to get anything right are we sure that since the incident they’ve been able to get top notch IT persons to secure their current data? I’d be scared about a transition of data from one company to another in case a computer virus or trojan infects the other company’s data assets.