RE: Price action progress9 May 2024 16:59
Hi GMHK - I don't really know what price to expect for Synthomer in the short term. I can't give you a number. If I had to - I could only give you a range - say 250p to say 350p. There is no calculation behind this, no chart, just a guess.
Like you I am an original (pre RI) holder of Synthomer but I buy shares only on a long-term basis. I have various criteria for my investments including that I hold a limited number of investments (currently 8 shares) and I invest in established technology companies e.g. in Pharma, defense, and precision instruments. Synthomer was my chemical industry choice. I chose them because I felt their planned product focus was interesting, and my very basic research indicated they were key players in several interesting continuing markets. However, and maybe like you, I underestimated the impact of the Eastman purchase - its timing, the price paid, the operational issues etc. I now consider Synthomer a "good" investment - for which I have unfortunately overpaid.
I have of course bought more shares in Synthomer through the RI and after, because I still believe in the company. I believe the shares have a large upside potential but accept that this will not happen until volumes return to the chemical sector - and if that does not happen in the next few years, Synthomer could be in trouble again. But as far as I can see the management are cognisant of the risks and have taken reasonable steps to cover them and prepare the company for the upturn. To me the risk reward outlook is favourable particularly if they can sell more non-core operations.
Lastly, as to a future (mid-term) share price - again I don't have a calculated timeframe or number ... but as an indicator ... I am expecting a wait of say 2 years (+?) - I don't see economies improving in a shorter timeframe - and a price north of £7 (back of the envelope calculations based on previous share prices, information in the RI documentation and competitor share prices - all very rough stuff) as indicators.
Regards