The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Thanks for your views casapinos ... think you’re prob correct and it’s a fair return if it goes through I just didn’t want to tie up the money that long .. but hey .. gotta work with what’s out there not what we want eh ?
As things stand it looks highly likely that the deal will complete and most estimates are for 1st half 2019. So with an SP at~�40 now the options are to sell, immediately, wait for the deal to complete and get ~$30(�21,75) and 0.839(�27.26) of a Takeda share, (currently trading at ~$21 in the US ) or choose to sell at a point between now and this time next year . Given that logic suggests that as the deal nears completion the Shire SP will tend towards the takeout price, we can assume roughly 20% uplift over a year.(always assuming that non of the many variables change over much in that period).Knowing my maximum profit is 20% above the current SP(or about 30% based on my average) I will watch the Shire SP closely.The uplift is unlikely to follow a steady upward trend , of 2% per month rather it will move sharply as each hurdle is cleared, the primary one IMV being the Takeda shareholder vote. Therefore that will likely be my decision moment , if the news suggests its tight I will probably take profits(if still available) and run .If the Shire Sp starts to fall back preceding the vote I will bail. otherwise I might sit tight 'till a few days before the deal completes , selling at �45+, hopefully.
Thank you Bloggsy.- understood!
You can hold the shares in an isa but not in foreign currency so there would be Fx conversion by your broker is my understanding .. the fx rate prob between .5 -1.5 % depending on the amount being converted .. I’m not 100 % that all brokers will allow trading on foreign shares within their isa but they do exist
I hold my Shire shares within an ISA. Are there any problems in holding stocks(within an ISA) not listed in UK and how difficult will it be to sell them post takeover? Advice/Comments would be much appreciated- provided I can understand them!- I am a comparative tiro!!
Still many risks (shareholder approval, currency risks, Takeda SP risk, regulatory etc) and it wont complete for another 9 months. Having said that, a 20% gap is rather large. I would have expected �42 ish maybe. But it may be months before you see �45, even into 2019. But be patient as that is a fab return.
I�ll take a look at that m8. I�ve had my eye on sirius minerals which looks a fabulous long term bet.
I hope we see 45 by next week. Not sure why sp is not reacting to it.
I was hoping to get 44/45 .. what’s the thoughts ?
But isn’t takeda SP up 4% on the day ?
Caveman 1066, very good. Think I need to invest in the company that makes the nets to catch all the meatballs
Beware the broker, yes I do. Want to get my little profit and buy Abcam which I have a few of (takeover going on) and GlaxoSmithKline. Abcam have extremely good figures and supply reagents to pharma companies.
"but raining meatballs and a ready supply of cheese sound like an investment opportunity!" [grin]
�Deal to be completed first half of 2019 � is the likeliest explanation for the current share price i think we all just want to move on from shire
caveman - I covered all those possibilities and more under the heading "global events!!!" but raining meatballs and a ready supply of cheese sound like an investment opportunity!
4,200 close IMO
@caspinos, you missed out a meteor hitting the earth, its raining meatballs and the moon being made of cheese ! :) Most likely one I can think of is that its too far into the future for peoples comfort, therefore the discovery of cheese on the moon will scupper the deal. [Wink]
@caspinos, you missed out a meteor hitting the earth, its raining meatballs and the moon being made of cheese ! :) Most likely one I can think of is that its too far into the future for peoples comfort, therefore the discovery of cheese on the moon will scupper the deal. [Wink]
plus gov. or EU may not agree the deal... We should climb anyway as we just had the proper company valuation :-)
correction - the Takeda board might Be OK with the deal (and the effect on their bonuses!) but they need 75% of the shareholders in favour , and as they will own only 50% of the new(but larger) company that is not a given.
Lots of reasons, the Takeda board might not approve the deal , the Tak SP might collapse leaving the deal in jeopardy, major global events might intervene, exchange rates Yen: $ :Euro, might swing wildly affecting the value and perhaps finally many people might see that the larger Shire shareholder might not fancy owning shares in a japanese company trading on a US market, so will sell into profit (as i will)
Could some one explain why the sp is still low. I saw at the start of the day that buys were going through in the region of 41 , 42, and big buys, so why is the price still low.
http://fortune.com/2018/05/08/takeda-buys-shire-62-billion-pharma/
Incredible discount and still the possibility of an all cash bid from the US. I’ve been adding.