The market value of Afren (AFR) is down by a third since it suspended chief executive Osman Shahenshah and chief operating officer Shahid Ullah in July. Unfortunately, Afren’s delayed half-year report came a day after news that the beleaguered oil and gas group had suspended associate directors Iain Wright and Galib Virani as part of its ongoing investigation into the unauthorised payments allegedly received by Messrs Shahenshah and Ullah.
If the boardroom drama wasn’t bad enough, Afren also revealed that its interim operating profits had nearly halved to $165m (£99m). The fall-away was primarily due to a reduced share of production from the flagship Ebok field in Nigeria. Afren’s total working-interest production came in at 33,488 barrels of oil per day (bopd) – a 25 per cent reduction on the 2013 interim rate. Afren did receive an extra $4 for every barrel of oil it sold during the period, but comparable operating cash flows were still down by 37 per cent to $354m.
To top it off, the group has also been forced to suspend work on the Barda Rash oil field in Kurdistan in reaction to the parlous security situation in the region. As a result, management has reduced its full-year guidance to between 32,000 and 36,000 bopd - from an initial forecast of 40,000 bopd.
AFREN (AFR) ORD PRICE: 97p MARKET VALUE: £1.1bn TOUCH: 96-97p 12-MONTH HIGH: 171p LOW: 90p DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL PE RATIO: 3 NET ASSET VALUE: 177¢* NET DEBT: 41% Half-year to 30 June Turnover ($m) Pre-tax profit ($m) Earnings per share (¢) Dividend per share (p) 2013 797 260 5.8 nil 2014 565 133 14.6 nil % change -29 -49 +152 - Ex-div:-
£1 = $1.66. *Includes intangible assets of $1.08bn, or 98¢ a share.
Following the recent sell-off, Afren's stock trades at a 43 per cent discount to Canaccord Genuity’s risked central book value of 170p a share. They’re also 28 per cent adrift of their implied value, based on historic earnings multiples. However, it may be some time before Afren resolves its unpredictable corporate governance issues, so investors would be well advised to keep their powder dry on this one. Hold.
I havn't read the quote 'uninvestible', which is hardly 'sitting on the fence'!! However, 'respected' City analysts are not noted for 'going out on a limb', and I suspect the ' market sentiment' card is at play here.It does not bode well when a co., allegedly, will be pursuing CEO and COO thru' the Courts for repayment of $10's M. The BOD has stated the irregularities do not affect 'operations', which is the 'tour de force' of the sp. I think I'm trying to talk myself into further buys. lol. GL
Wise words indeed. With the share price heading back to 91p as I type this share is only for those willing to see big paper losses, with the wherewithall to hang on until the current uncertainty is eliminated and the balls to sell if uncertainty turns into bad news e.g. the machinations that have been uncovered actually pose a threat to the company's economic interests. After all the FT quoted a respected analyst stating this company is "uninvestable". I hope he doesn't know something I don't know.
The 'evil twin' of Keynes;s comment is WB's ''Buy when everyone is selling''. He refers to 'quality', 'value' stocks, and imho. AFR falls in this cat. Yes, sentiment is ruling the price, and todays' fall is over the ft story. However, if the story is true, AFR BOD's will be 4 less in a few weeks time!! This, for a Q and V co. is not good. You're maxed out, and I think you will do well. We may have to wait though for rns on positive ramping up of oil production, and not shenanigans in the board room. As far as CFD goes, AFR must be near to NAV? A bit risky, and I am hmmming and ahhhing.GL
Don't get me wrong - I'm maxed out on this share and also GKP. My view being that people have overvalued "safe" domestic i.e. US/UK/Eur shares and undervalued "scary" emerging market shares such as these. It is an opinion that's all and I hope I'll win on the balance of probability. I'm wary of your calculations not because they lack logic but rather this share is currently priced on sentiment not underlying asset values. If you're considering owning on margin i.e. CFD I would be cautious. To quote Keynes - the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! Good luck to us both...
I bought a very small holding and having read the potential think that once all the corporate governance issue is out of the way these could prove to be quite a good investment. Why a small holding? I believe the share price could be volatile over the next few months and will look to add more on the dips.
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