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Hayward Tyler Group Share Chat (HAYT)


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flundra
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:43.00
RE: Been telling you.................
20 Jul '17
I’ve been mulling over the possible reasons for the SP declining over recent days, away from the merger price. Might it indicate increasing doubt over the approaching merger proceeding? That could perhaps be because (good) financial figures might be leaking, or suspected, boosting the No vote? Or the prospect of a MC inspired counter bid receding? Or it might reflect lack of real news, and suspicion that’s because bad news is being suppressed, or concern the ship is rudderless. I suspect the prevailing market view will be pessimistic because many interpret the delayed refinancing as difficulty refinancing. A board shake up is inevitable if merger doesn’t happen, meaning more volatility.

PS I’m tempted to hold post-merger, for the reason you state, and because I like what I’ve seen of AVG so far anyway, even though right now (in the nicest possible way) I wish they’d b*gger off! I’d research AVG properly before selling, although have lost some confidence in ELB (who might get a board role). Generally he’s done a great job at HAYT over the years, but has dropped the ball this year imo.
 
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:43.00
View Thread (2)
RE: Been telling you.................
19 Jul '17
Flundra - I don't know if prior to the vote the company will be obligated to state its trading position, I would hope so for transparency but I fear we won't hear anything until the next trading statement.

You make an important point regarding deferred revenue and this should boost figures for the current trading period.

We haven't heard much about new orders recently, but like you I suspect we are well on course to meeting targets and improving the company's financial position

Let us not forget even if the deal succeeds we will later benefit when the improved trading position is eventually released to the market. Now is the time to accumulate and vote against, but if resistance is not enough then hold and reap the rewards of a combined AVG HTG entity
Schrodingerscats
Posts: 59
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
Been telling you..............
18 Jul '17
Traded out. Trading clln with next share being watched. Gla.
chanjael
Posts: 154
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
RE: Been telling you.................
17 Jul '17
spell check!! Meant Wanglii
chanjael
Posts: 154
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
RE: Been telling you.................
17 Jul '17
Wangle, I'm history on this blog my friend. Popped in to see how things were but I sold out at a shade under 48p. To be fair I bought in at 41/42p so not too shabby. Oh, for what it could have been though . . . . GLA
flundra
Posts: 543
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
RE: Been telling you.................
17 Jul '17
One frustration here is absence of financial news.

We haven’t really had any news about cashflow since 31 March, ie nearly 4 months ago. The AR was very positive re FY 2018, eg improving sector conditions, record order book, low capex. Also the principal reason for low revenue in 2017 was explained by ELB as a cash flow issue, ie the orders expected to be completed in H2 2017 hadn’t gone away but were just “shifted to the right”, so those orders should now be being completed with the cash from them flowing in.

So now here we are nearly 4 months on. The news about cash in 2018 can only be good can’t it? Anyone else suspicious not to have heard anything?

I guess what must be disclosed atm depends on the applicable rules re mergers and what the bod wants to tell us. No surprise perhaps that a majority bod, wanting this merger to go through, is lying low. Not sure what to do about this, short of going to Luton with my shovel and electrodes...
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
RE: Been telling you.................
16 Jul '17
If HAYT fall to 37p and AVG remain at this level it will be a bargain for anyone buying in here assuming the vote succeeds. What is more likely to happen is AVG will track this lower and vice versa or rise in tandem up until the shareholder vote because the ratios have been declared. I don't see any reason why there would be a discount to AVG shares accounting for the proposed takeover ratio. The question is are people buying at this price looking to vote in favour or reject? If MC and associates are planning on declaring his hand with a counter offer that would be hugely beneficial for holders. Although I am disappointed HAYT board members have sat on their hands all this time, having not effectively pursued a refinancing deal with the bank, I do still believe value of my share holding will rise post merger. The risk element attached to this stock is largely a result of mounting debt due over the short term, our continued delay in repaying the due £2.4m and a stubbornly low cash-flow position. As part of the enlarged group the value of HTG must surely rise. There will be an immediate boost in shareholder value if this reasoning is sound. £15m spent on the centre of excellence! Now an extra £9m will see AVG take control of all assets, recurring revenues and customers and future profitable cash-flow. I may buy more. Certainly won't be selling on fear.
graham-wales
Posts: 32,805
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
RE: Been telling you.................
16 Jul '17
Yep sold up wanted the company to continue, bod sold out cheap no doubt for a position on the new board.
wanglii
Posts: 94
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
Been telling you...................
14 Jul '17
I follow this board with great interest. In fairness I have correctly predicted the share offer price (to within 0.4p I believe) and more importantly I have been suggesting for many months that we would be bought out for a song. A disgrace too but when did morality enter the equation when profits are concerned? My shares have now been sold (at a reasonably healthy profit sorry). I notice GW and Chanjael have gone very quiet on here and I hope that they too have sold whilst it was in the early 50's as I did. As prev stated I bought AVG at 223 and will retain until they hit 255-270. My advice would be don't wait around for the inevitable but instead sell and come back in November as matters settle at HAYT around 37p.DYOR and GLA
the_shareminator
Posts: 10,792
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:44.00
RE: Bid
14 Jul '17
dannatt - We won't ever know about the alternatives if the bid succeeds. Like flundra I agree refinancing would still be on the table, we began delaying the repayment of loans before we received an official offer so presumably the bank were comfortable extending discussions with HAYT. It was only later that AVG began their due diligence in the offer period although it may have begun earlier, it's difficult to know.

I would point out there is no chance of AVG "wiping out the debt". They have other pies in the oven which will require heavy investment in the coming months and years. I would expect if the deal is successful, they will repay the £2.4m and potentially secure a refinancing of debt, but will opt to retain the vast majority of its cash. I agree being a part of a larger entity we could have a more secure future but by no means will shareholders here be richly rewarded for supporting this company over the years. We are being bought out on the cheap. The future combined value may act as a ceiling especially given the uncertain trading performance AVG reported. HAYT had a much stronger second half in terms of operations by contrast.

Flundra - I'm still here but I'm not at my trading platform until 19th so I can't comment in too much detail. But I'm largely in agreement with your posts. I would add this deal if successful will save the disgraced ELB (in terms of sentiment) by projecting him into a position on an enlarged board of AVG directors, enlarging the HAYT group under new leadership and dealing with the outstanding loans. Ofcourse this would all come at the expense of shareholders but when has that ever stopped unscrupulous directors? The best thing we can hope for is a counter offer but failing that, this deal needs to fall through. Shareholders should
not be cowed into thinking plan A put forward is our best option when it only suits certain individuals and persons with an interest in AVG. Keep up the posts, enjoy reading here :)




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