The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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I will not let you down just it’s not worth the time to playing with parasitic tics.
But I just got the urge to have a scratch!!!
Gatwick gusher rules!!!!! That should get the green /nimbys tree huggers going.
PMSL
The Turkey announcement was 23 July 2020.
It wasn't a co-incidence that they were still suggesting HH-2z could be salvaged as a producer in June and the first OGA (as it was then) monthly production figures with significant water cuts were soon to be published - 9% water cut in May, released early September and 24% water cut in June released early October.
From the 30 June 2020 Interim Report (ie when UKOG already knew HH-1 was producing 24% water) about HH-2z:-
'A number of options are being reviewed for the future use of HH-2z, including stimulation to return it into long-term production, sidetracking the well to a different subsurface location and possibly converting it into a future water re-injection well to implement pressure support and further reduce future operating costs (as foreseen in the Horse Hill FDP)'
as for HH-1 in June (when UKOG knew the water cut was averaging 24%) things were all hunky dory apparently, this also from the interim report:-
'Post period a higher capacity and energy efficient linear rod pump was installed on HH-1, leading to increased production from the Portland interval. As of 29 June 2020, 113,143 bbl in total has been produced from Horse Hill'
Except the average daily production was dropping fast - April (first month 'post period') 243bopd, May 177bopd plus 18bwpd, June 158bopd plus 49bwpd.
The only other 'news' about HH-1 was this:-
Post-period, the Company also plans a significant intervention in HH-1 specifically designed to further improve flow into the wellbore. Together with a full reperforation of the entire Portland section using a different type of perforating gun than prior operations, a new , simpler production tubing completion will be installed. The new completion will permit the downhole pump to be installed below the Portland interval to significantly improve pump efficiency.'
Which lead to speculation that the reperforation of the whole section would improve production massively, and the deeper pump might be in the Kimmeridge - both BS.
On 16 July UKOG announced the completion of buying the PW production kit - I posted (remember still not knowing about the water ingress at HH-1):-
'The main issue though is that by buying this kit UKOG are admitting that this is the production set up at HH for quite a long time.'
Only nearly s.four year
I believe https://www.bahamasair.com/ were in discussions with SS at one stage as they were expecting millions of millionaires to be buying properties on the islands. Top of the list were:
ajbennett
Anton13579
argus1
baits
Bcarm
bigdaddyian
billy101203
bornagain
Caddyman
Capdevila11
caristom
charge1962
danpoe353
DavidWK
dazzle71
Desree
Doose
downbutnotout
elle_valexpert
freeasabird
Heid
HH1AN2
Insidious
InvestingGenius
leewayne
mannnan
MJFMSG
moneymunch
morefondle
Mullins58
northfork
ocelot
Ozzy52
Pboo
richar
rodanjt
ShareFlyer
Shls3834
Sonmoon
spud_u_like
SRBS
Sting69
Stockraiser
TheReverand
TollesburyStu
Trish63
TrollHunter2
Tymers
walrus
wizard125
Some have probably died by now but plenty of new ones to take their places.
I note the discussion around HH and its valuation and apparent potential.
If HH is really worth anything significant and that new drilling could be rewarding; I have to ask; Why did Sanderson 'roll the dice' (his words ) in Türkiye and NOT invest in HH?
Millions blown on a gamble when he supposedly had a sure fire winner with HH.
Maybe he knows that HH is not so great Afterall.
You're working the grift hard these days Steve, need more money ?
It looks as if the UK economy may have "turned a corner" (Rishi Sunak) - time for UKOG's share price to do the same!
Remember this classic tweet:-
'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM
Jul 5, 2022
JUMPING FOR JOY IN JUNE: The govt backs our Portland Port energy project … The govt backs our gas appraisal project at Loxley … PLUS encouraging oil seep in Turkey and new seismic plan at Horse Hill. And now for July!'
Government backing?
Encouraging oil seep in Turkey - oops
and seismic plan for HH - erm wait for PPP
or this classic as the testing was bombing
'UKOG@UKOGlistedonAIM
Oct 16, 2017
Broadford Bridge Oil Pouring Part One'
and not forgetting there was a part 2
This was in the RNS:-
'Broadford Bridge-1z ("BB-1z") continues to flow light sweet oil and gas from the Kimmeridge Limestones'
This is in the testing report for the 16 day test from 6/10/17 tp 22/10/17:-
The well was pumped over a 16-day period and in the middle of this period after recovery of 70 bbl from the well, hydrocarbons started to be produced back along with the spent acid and brine. The initial spot samples showed an oil-cut of between 2% and 20% at instantaneous rates up to 370 bfpd. Following shut down of the pump, the well continued to produce gas at sufficient rate to light the flare and continued for a period in excess of 30 minutes before depleting. As pumping continued, ultimately recovering a further 46 bbl fluid from the well, both the oil cut and the strength of the gas flare declined. At the end of pumping, with 116 bbl recovered, the oil cut was around 1% with no gas flare and increasing periods required for pressure build-up'
'The final returned fluids were analysed with pH 5.4, 123,000 ppm chlorides with 1% oil cut'
So the 'sweet light oil' being poured was from the approx one barrel of oil produced in the 16 day test that was underway when the oil pouring was tweeted.
This was also in the RNS:-
'Flow continues to clean up, demonstrating an increasing oil cut, together with sustained periods of associated gas flaring. The shrouded flare stack has been in daily operation, exhibiting a clean burn.'
What a surprise that they didn't give any details or update on the test when it ended. Then a month later, probably realising the game was up:-
RNS 15/11/17 - '£10 Million Financing and Commencement of BB-1z Optimised Flow Testing'
Must be a life style company as they say these days They have never been challenged for continual under performance and continue to take salaries- no shame or honour here and to some extent we are to blame for allowing it to happen.
“certainly sounds bullish”, i’d say sounds like bull ****e.
ukog have been mentioning fawley since the beginning of the project in 2022, but it wasn’t until six months ago ukog actually managed to get a meeting with exxon, and that was only after joining in march 2023 the solent cluster which exxon is a founder member.
so exxon don’t seem that keen to me.
UKOG are definitely crooked, but they seem to get away with anything…
'Countdown to bankruptcy begins' would have been more accurate.
In its tweet "the countdown to lift off begins" of 05/12/23, UKOG specifically mentioned positive discussions with Sumitomo and Exxon.
Sumitomo is interesting and certainly appears to be prepared to participate in projects alongside smaller companies.
That certainly sounds bullish. Does it mean discussions are progressing satisfactorily "with several significant potential international investors with regard to their participation in the Company's hydrogen storage project" (RNS of 01/02/24)?
There is no way of telling, the comment is left open to interpretation.
major **** up by me. ignore the thread "all quiet on all fronts".
So the 152,796,721 shares were admitted to trading yesterday - which is what UKOG said in the RNS on 2 May.
Yet I posted on 2 May:-
'Finally a tranche of today's announced conversion appear to have been sold on Monday - 32,796,721 shares (the last 7 digits the same) at a price of 0.026p.
Perhaps UKOG could explain how shares supposedly admitted to trading next week look as though they were sold on Monday?'
'Monday' was 29 April. The conversion of 152,796,721 was at 0.0305p, these sold for 0.026p,
UK OIL & GAS PLC
62,087,925
ORDINARY SHARES OF GBP0.000001 EACH, FULLY PAID
(BS3D4G5)(GB00BS3D4G58)
Looks like the shares admitted to trading yesterday may have been for a loan reduction, or were they? We will just have to wait to find out. Yet another nail in the coffin of the BoD as far as I'm concerned. I just don't trust them or anything they say.
"Application has been made for EBT Shares, numbering 62,087,925 ordinary shares in total, to be admitted to trading on AIM ("Admission"). Admission is expected to take place at 8.00 a.m. on or around 10 May 2024."
Sneaky buggers. Will have to keep an eye on them.
UK OIL & GAS PLC
152,796,721
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/aim-notice-09-05-2024/16461848
ORDINARY SHARES OF GBP0.000001 EACH, FULLY PAID
(BS3D4G5)(GB00BS3D4G58)
What happens when the 'family silver' turns out to be electroplated junk?
If one of UKOG's past expectations had come true even that wouldn't justify blindly believing that something they are claiming with no detailed backup - like every previous claim - was likely to come true this time.
Even the Loxley CPR which is based on minimal data has errors that significantly increase the risk of failure or at best a find that is not commercial - otherwise UKOG has avoided any examination of their projects or detailed forecasts of the financial benefit of the results of their activities - if successful.
Perhaps that's why a company with an income stream dependent on issuing ever cheaper shares just to help pay the salaries, let alone do anything, and appears to have no way of doing anything now without farming out half the family silver has such a low cap.
Ocelot & Logic
Sorry you cannot use them in
the same sentence, or even room!
There is no logic in your last line.
Here's a complete list of previous write-downs to UKOG's "assets":
2018 BB-1 "unable to be used for production" £9.25m
2018 "Holmwood operator abandoned the site" £1.21m
2020 Horse Hill "impairment charge of £7.89 million"
2020 "HH-1 should be impaired by £9.35 million"
2021 "HH-1 should be impaired by £1.46 million"
2021 Isle of Wight write-off £946k
2022 "HH-1 should be impaired by £2.9 million"
Total: £33m.
Yet to be disclosed: Turkey
If drill testing is ever carried out on HH-3 or Loxley the same pattern will be repeated.
Market cap: £1m
Book net assets at 30/09/23: £32.687m
Unless valuations are backed up by full details UKOG are prepared to publish then it's very likely that there is a flaw in the valuation.
UKOG claim the £19.3 million intangible valuation (money spent on HH) is supported by a valuation based on 4 further wells being drilled - what are the assumptions, all successful? what costs to drill? what flow rates? water injection works? - wouldn't it be nice if UKOG CPR'd HH to justify that, and the valuation they carry for HH-1 which has risen this year (from £0.8mm to £1.4mm) despite using a lower OP ($78 then flat $75 after 2031 vs last year's $81 then flat $81 after 2031), but possibly resulting from using a more favourable discount rate (about 25% lower). With over a year of testing and 4 years of production surely there's enough data for a CPR - they had a Kimmeridge report done in 2019 (only mentioned as a footnote to justify contingent resources in the Kimmeridge) based on the testing - after that any Kimmeridge work at HH appeared to be stopped.
To claim that any estimate by UKOG, with a record of exaggeration and failure of potentially transformational. or national significance projects that clearly weren't, is reliable is absurd. The fact the 'successful' well out of 2 (HH-1) was 'worth' £0.8mm last year and this £1.4mm, but 4 new wells are worth £19.3mm after the cost of drilling new wells has been accounted for suggests there's no risking, a favourable view of possible production - and probably the super low discount rate - at least a CPR would have some indication of the sensitivity of the valuation to different inputs and pi could make their own judgement of what's likely.
If UKOG want to be believed put the calculations to the test of a CPR, otherwise it's just ramper fodder.