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Hi WiganW
Can't find any numbers tw produce that I don't like, especially since there last announcement, which clearly indicates they expect continued growth. Of course they could be wrong, but since such a large gap exists between supply and demand, I am sure tw will sell everything they can build for many years to come.
Just noticed late trades far more than there ever used to be and much more buys than sells, (same for psn but more sells than buys for bdev). Doesn't ever seem to effect next day opening prices though.
BoL
Hi Nigel, my point is that you can’t look at eps in isolation as you also need to check if there have been any changes to shareholder equity, such as increased debt and new issuances. Also, Wimps justification for maintaining special shareholder distributions depends on selling more houses, using plots already owned. Market reserving judgement in case market slows and Wimps won’t be able to increase sales, and by implication can’t continue with special distributions.
Hi WiganW
I know there is no direct relation between Sp and Eps. What I was inferring was if you double profit this justifies doubling Sp. Don't know how this can be manipulated, Sp known and fixed Eps known and fixed (in accounts). The small dip in EpsG Y/e 2017 was I think due to one off provision for lease hold,
Underlying business still growing (in 2017), but with brokers forecasts predicting 26.6% increase in Eps this year (before Strategy RNS) I think 230 in a years time is conservative.
The reason for my optimism is that I believe all builders are hugely undervalued because of Brexit, and this will eventually resolve itself - don't know how long it will take though.
Worst possible case - No Brexit deal, but I think this will effect other sectors more than builders - so why are builders taking the biggest hit.
BoL
Hi Nigel, re your post regarding eps growth. First of all there is no direct correlation between eps and the SP, in fact eps is easily manipulated higher as the underlying business is deteriorating. Also, note that for the accounts closing in 2018 Wimps eps actually fell. So by your reckoning (method) you should be predicting a fall in Wimps SP, not a rise as you always do regardless of the underlying metrics.
hello nige i agree with a lot of your points and whilst i am underwater now you only make an actual loss if you actually sell and who would sell at these crazy low prices unless it is a forced sell we only differ on our price targets mine being a conservative 200-205p come end of may 2019 and yours being about 25p higher of about 230 but i have no doubt that there will be a lot of ups and downs along the way there
I've always been lucky but this keeps following me about . Have you seem PSN 0.616 and carillion rose 291% what a joke this is, never mind :))
Nige Hi,
I sincerely hope we can claw our way out of this downward turn next week before I puull the rest of my hair out lol.
Someone told me that Alpha man has been eliminated and is no longer, think he has gone back to his old porters job lol.
Keep well and lets look forward to a good week.
ATB
Tom :-)))
Hi Bamps
Wot have you done to the system? You are the only person who can buy at 9p, everybody else 181.1.
Could you buy 100,000 for me?
BoL
Just a little story from one of the sites I used to run, 2 men came for a job interview I said to the first one can you make tea he said he could, can you drive a fork lift, he replied why how big is the tea pot. He then said where do I make the tea is it in that shed, I replied shed that's your hod. I asked the other one what his name was , Paddy Malone , I said can you spell it, he stormed out saying I didn't know this was going to be an exam stuff your job.:))
Hi Bamps
Even Bash might buy some at 9, = 200% yield.
System in total collapse - price 181.1 now but at top of page 178.25. Have to update from ADVFN, cos can' trust this site.
BoL
Hi dividendchaser
I see no reason why Sp should not follow Eps and Brokers consensus forecast for 2018 Eps growth is 26.6%, so even if sp remains equally undervalues as today, Sp should be todays price (LSE says 178, ADVFN says 181?) + 26.6% so on 21/06/19 around 228. This does not include the capital market day update so is 228+, and expecting a surge after Interims 31/07/18.
Going to sell bkgh and sge on Monday to invest in builders bringing down my average prices. Done nicely with both of them (over 60% up on remaining shares and nice big lump on completed deals).
Hi Bamps
Still rewriting my system - down to 76% builder 23% everything else, but when I sell sge heading back towards 80%.
If by mid July not much change in Sp, I will think of using some of my Hsbc credit facility.
BoL
Why does it keep showing 9.00 on the price, if it stays like I will be piling in . What's the yield on that :))
Hi Nige. This sites been hopeless lately since they put these intrusive pop up adverts in the middle of the posts. I don't think me and you will ever agree on the best way to invest but each to their own. My HSBC bank manager reckons I'm high risk investor, I don't know how he would rate me if I invested in one stock . By the way my Londonmetric shares in my isa still paying me the tax credit back. I'm not sure how the tax works now on Reits property shares. I do agree with you that Tw must have looked at all the scenarios before issuing the divi plan and is sustainable. Enjoy the rest of the week end
Hi HeresHopin
You make good points. Historically most Ftse100 coys Per around 15, builders 13 ie 2 points behind, because of cyclical nature, but now around 8 (cos of Brexit). In a previous post I said I thought 12 would be a reasonable per for builders hence 50% undervalued.
I don't agree builders are cyclical any more. The downturns in previous cycles were caused by increases in interest rates, banking crisis or economic downturns. Can't see interest rates increasing much in the foreseeable (not controlled by Govt any more) while another baking crisis improbable after safeguards created. Leaving economic downturn. This is dependant entirely on the mess Govt makes of Brexit Deal - so not very promising.
However, this won't have much effect until housing supply catches up with demand and despite what Govt says this won't happen for a long time. After 10 years of consistent growth, I expect another 10+ years of growth before supply catches up with demand. Don't think you can class an industry as cyclical if the cycle is 20 years+.
Hi Dividendchaser
Psn laid out a long term dividend plan about 5 years ago (like tw capital markets day) and have exceeded their targets. This does not mean to say tw will also exceed their targets, but I am sure they have researched this carefully, and until they are proved wrong, I am happy to go along with their predictions.
No concerns over the company when it holds so much Cash.
Hi Bamps
You have lost no money unless you sell, and why would anyone sell at a loss when getting 10%+ divis. If I had to put all my money in 1 company I would go for psn, second choice tw, followed by bwy and bdev.
BoL
Btw Anybody have trouble signing in here yesterday?
thanks for your concern bamps i have a modest 3 bedroom buy to let property in manchester which i am getting 650 per month rental income no wife or ex wifes and children to worry about obviously my investment in taylor wimpey is much greater and having all your eggs in one basket is a big risk but i have a nature that loves taking risk i did not forsee the low of 178 last week and i am sure many other people were surprised by this i have to add whist i am not a great drinker i had to drown my sorrows by mixing absolut vodka and budweiser most days last week so while i am underwater now as will be a lot of people i see upside in this up to about 200p maybe 205p going into special ex dividend date may 2019 and do not think we will revisit the 170s again obviously it is going to be a rough ride getting there
Agreed BAMPS, I never have more than 10% in any one share, although my income is all TAKEN from my investments so I need to be relatively risk averse.
Hi divichaser .I couldn't do what you do having Tw as your only investment, your taking a huge risk doing that whatever the stock. I don't know your circumstances but as a BB mate I would have a rethink. My wife has 60% of her isa in a unit trust and I have 20% that takes care of most of the variations of the shares. All the best :))
heres hopin i agree with some of the things you say and i feel you bring a balance to the debate which is much needed there was a lot of euphoria following the capital markets day presentation and the share price went up about 10pence to about a peak of 205p a few days after if you factor in the dividend of 10.4p the share price is now 14p lower than the peak of 205p clearly the market does not believe the yield of about ten pent is sustainable the yield now is the biggest in the ftse 100 i am one of the few posters to mention the sustainability of the dividend clearly something has to give as any yield of over 8 per cent in any ftse 100 company flags up concerns for the company in question clearly i would like the share price to increase as tw is my only investment but i believe there is limited upside to this maybe even just 200p and that would be going into special ex dividend day may 2019 obviously there are going to be a lot of dips on the way there as experienced last week
Hi HeresHopin
Bkgh and crst both LSE so not comparable to National Builders. Don't even watch mcs - can't remember why I rejected them. The main point is builders were already hugely undervalued before this drop. Some sort of sanity should return after tw interims 31/07/18.
BoL
The Dow has had 8 straight drops and it was well documented that the US would increase interest rates and mentioned that another 2 rises may occur this year. It appears to have had a knock on effect here plus the vote in the Commons yesterday still left a no deal Brexit as a real possibility - the double whammy may have had an effect on sentiment.
Surely we must have hit the bottom today but unfortunately don't see our SP rising above 2.00 any time soon.
Can't see the autumn budget helping either with more tax rises expected to fund NHS and God only knows what will happen when the Govt gets its act together and starts producing it's various reviews and interfering in housing - thought May was taking personal responsibility or is it Raab.
TW not to bad today bellway and bovis over 4% down PSN and Barratts over 3% I think today's drop is because the market is well down again and interest rates could raise in August the market is fracturing this in but if they do put IR up could go down another 3% not good times at the mo could be a lot of people bailing out