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Rio Tinto Share Chat (RIO)



Share Price: 3,653.00Bid: 3,653.00Ask: 3,653.50Change: 28.50 (+0.79%)Riser - Rio Tinto
Spread: 0.50Spread as %: 0.01%Open: 3,648.00High: 3,684.00Low: 3,634.00Yesterday’s Close: 3,624.50


Share Discussion for Rio Tinto


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Trueblog
Posts: 1
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,501.50
Back of an envelope
2 Dec '17
Something I posted on iii yesterday

While everything is quiet just doing a back of envelope calculation

2016 Underlying Earnings 5.1B, 70 % returned as Div/buyback -->134p

2017 1st half 3.9B UE (IOP 68, currently average 71 for year to date and looking stable despite China Winter pollution curbs.)

That gives UE for the whole year of 7.8B, i.e. 55% increase.

At a 70% Div payout that would be 207P (an all time record for Rio I think, by some margin.)

at current SP that would be a full year yield of 5.9%!
at a more reasonable 4.8% (similar to the trailing yield) that would imply a sp of 4300p?

And that's not accounting for divestment of the 2.7B coal business.

That seems pretty good, but is this realistic? Provided the IOP holds up seems like a good bet?

So seems like a 20% discount for uncertainty at present

I realise that markets are forward looking while dividends are historic, and furthermore the forecasting of div's is highly speculative.

But it seems to me that a lot of downside is priced in to the current sp (i.e. a fall in IOP, currency etc.) while there is at least a reasonable indiction that there has been a structural change in the IO market favouring higher grades. As such I wonder if most of the risk is actually now to the upside, while at the same time the current SP is supported by at least a medium term prospect of very healthy 5%+ dividends and a return of 2-2.7B from the asset disposals.

It seems to me the current sp is factoring in an IOP of around $55-$60

It must be fairly unusual to have this sort of asymmetric risk in a high yield (albeit cyclical) stock?

All DYOR IMO of course!

BW

TB
 
OillSheik
Posts: 233
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,699.00
What price?
14 Nov '17
Hmmmm what price please ?
confluence
Posts: 130
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,791.50
RE: .
7 Nov '17
I agree Lawmrmyer, though 38 seems to be a resistance point -hopefully it pushes through!
Lawrmyer
Posts: 753
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,800.50
.
7 Nov '17
Really strong performance from rio lately! Would be great to see this push over £40
Hawkey47
Posts: 3,546
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,709.50
Being taken to court.
18 Oct '17
Not great news and usually no smoke without fire.

However these things usually get sorted out with some kind of deal.

Onwards and upwards.

Hawkey
Hawkey47
Posts: 3,546
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,718.00
Results
17 Oct '17
Looking pretty good for this quarter but a bit of production downgrade going forward.
driftking27
Posts: 1,246
Observation
Opinion:Hold
Price:3,500.00
RE: You tried, Drift
22 Sep '17
Sunset not sure what your on about, cause noted a good point to sell as it has drifted to 34's since then, only just up to 3500p.. haha
arnietwo
Posts: 99
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,624.50
RE: Dividend Dates
13 Sep '17
Int Div payment date is 21st
Sept
Hawkey47
Posts: 3,546
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,759.50
Dividend Dates
3 Sep '17
Anyone know when these are please.

Thanks
sunset777
Posts: 1,978
Off Topic
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:3,756.00
RE: Moving up
31 Aug '17
Yes, this could reach broker's target.




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