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Although Oct would also be ok with myself as I have 2 other shares which I hope will rise substantially in the near future which will allow me to invest at those low levels before the herd arrive. GLA
Agree, a lot of guesswork here and people making up their own timelines, which is ok, but please do not present them as when they are opinions at best. What we do know as fact is that the rig is employed currently doing a planned sidetrack job that will take "minimum of 4 weeks". After which she will be contracted to Equinor (Stat) for the first of the 4 wells (Verbier being the second of 4). The rest is guesswork. Also - Not sure why some are saying 2-3weeks to mobilise between jobs (the West Phoenix could pull anchors, move,, lay anchors in a week or so, weather permitting IMO. There is also nothing that I can see to indicate that the first drill for Stat will take 80days, or anywhere near that. So on that basis, then we could still see Verbier apprasal drill (not exploration as some have stated) starting mid to late Aug. Also someone stated "£3-£4 SP estimated if the appraisal comes back with the top end ROIP estimates in Verbier" - IMO you can double that and then some, because that means that the discovery will be developed by Equinor, and further appraisl on other areas of interest, including Meribel and Cortina will be drilled 2019 also IMO only.
I agree with JAS78. Statoil/Equinor always planned the four well program to be 4-5 months in total starting in q3 according to the RNS (which is the only thing you should go by as that's from the company which makes the decisions). If Norway and Verbier would be already 120 days/4 months combined (80+40) they would not leave enough time for drill 3 and 4 on the UKCS without getting into full winter. So I assume the 80 days (if that figure actually comes from Statoil - I have not seen it being mentioned in an updated rns from them directly only some news articles) is a theoretical figure and believe sometime in August will be the beginning of Verbier appraisal. In regards to the share price - it will come down to the appraisal result and as the number of barrels of oil can vary up to a factor 4 to 5 so will be the share price. Anywhere between GBP3-12 is realistic in case of a successful appraisal program. I think the NPV in the JOG management presentation is spot on and is aligned with analyst opinions and I will stick with the experts in that case. So fingers crossed for a successful drill that is all that counts 4-6 weeks sooner or later doesn't matter in this case...and don't forget how exciting the Cortina prospect will become in case of a Verbier success plus the 3D seismic on top of that...they really found black gold in that Trap Oil desk when they bought them out and went through the assets...
This opening Norway drill will only take (up to) 80 days if Stat Oil decide further investigation is required after initial results Verbier is still pencilled in for August as it stands
They are drilling to appraise the original discovery, to determine the size of discovery i.e. 25 mbbls to 125 mbbls. If they find more oil and confirm 125 mbbls of recoverable oil, then this can rise easily to �3-4 per share and might be more due to positive sentiment. as this will also de-risk other prospects
........"still can see �4-5 on oil discovery"............... ............oil has already been discovered, boom.boom.
Drill is at least 3-4 months away due to Norway drill that will take 80 days. I think, drill in Norway will commence in next 2/3 weeks and will reach TD around mid sept and then 2-3 weeks rig mob to Verbier that make Verbier spud around early to mid Oct. Not a good news for short term traders, but won’t make difference for long term holders... still can see £4-5 on oil discovery
Would expect this t possible drift back in share price with drill now not expected till sept as no some have already sold