Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Started this thread on Tuesday at 21:23 with one liner and article from P&J and its still going! Is this a record? 😂
Lots of vacuous ‘ramping’ nonsense on here. Or total bullshit. Amounts to the same thing though.
BLUECLYDE
"In terms of getting to 100k production; I am invested because if they can produce 17K as they state this should generate hugely positive cash flow and it looks like the Spirit deal opens the door to 40k a day production in the next couple of years. If the oil price holds up and they can get to 40k a day the cash flow from that will be insane and it will pretty much be up to the company how aggressive they want to be to achieve that figure. Being debt free really gives them a great chance to instantly utilise the cash flow as soon as they get the oil flowing imo."
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The abridged version is: You have not go a clue!
In terms of getting to 100k production; I am invested because if they can produce 17K as they state this should generate hugely positive cash flow and it looks like the Spirit deal opens the door to 40k a day production in the next couple of years. If the oil price holds up and they can get to 40k a day the cash flow from that will be insane and it will pretty much be up to the company how aggressive they want to be to achieve that figure. Being debt free really gives them a great chance to instantly utilise the cash flow as soon as they get the oil flowing imo.
BLUECLYDE
"if it can get to up to over 100,000 barrels a day which I see no reason why it cant then it will be throwing off that much cash I am unsure there will be something big enough to take it out and we probably wont want to sell. just my opinion."
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Here is another question for you to duck!
What timescale do you see the "over 100,000 barrels a day" taking place?
extratrader,
A twist I hadn't considered.
That may be a longshot, but could actually produce the best bidding war.
Big question though is quite which Co or consortium would come out of the woodwork to counter it?
Alternatively, your suggestion could itself be the counter bidder.
An interesting scenario.
There is also a US Co keeping an eye on what is happening here, so I am ever hopeful of a decent price, no matter when!
Hi malrees,
…."imo the only shareholder holder who will have to agree initially with a to bid is Kerogen."
I'm inclined to agree with you, FWLIW, but there's an interesting wrinkle : what if there's an approach (single or joint) from any of Sinopec, CNPC, CNOOC or Sinochem Group.....
Even if the price were otherwise 'full' - and uncontested - and Kerogen , quite reasonably, supported it , I imagine such a bid might not go through....
ATB
I was in Encore too at the time but it is a completely different beast to here. Encore drilled Catcher in 2010, it only started producing oil in 2018 and buried Premier Oil in a mountain of debt. interestingly enough Catcher is now doing 85k barrels a day.
Hurricane are about to start producing at 17k barrels a day with possibly hundreds of millions of barrels to continue producing from. The huge thing they have is the fact they have no debt so cash can quickly snow ball to fund drilling and production if all goes well and the oil can be produced as expected.
For me there is more than a decent chance this can get to £5 a share if oil holds its current levels and drilling meets expectations. if it can get to up to over 100,000 barrels a day which I see no reason why it cant then it will be throwing off that much cash I am unsure there will be something big enough to take it out and we probably wont want to sell. just my opinion.
I respect the views of those on this board who think we can gradually increase reserves with more drilling and hence increase the share price while staying independent. I believed this for a while, but then eventually reminded myself of a substantial investment I had in Encore. By 2011 when the TO by Premier happened, most shareholders had already done very well. Alan Booth did imo a brilliant job, much as RT does here, but eventually the price was disappointing. Many in the City expected a higher bid (indeed one house tried unsuccessfully to construct one), but the price was the price. I need the share price here to double to do as well from Encore and I think I'll get it or I would have sold by now.
£5 - £10 Per Share
Oh bother. 2nd para. '...which leaves GLA and Whirlwind.'
Medre. Hit the send button too soon again!
Although you've already done some good research, the story's a lot more complicated. Some people seem to be of the opinion that Hurricane may be subject to a takeover. Personally I disagree with that, and the evidence points to such a thing being unlikely to happen. The join-up with Spirit makes it yet more unlikely.
From the word go, Hurricane has made it clear that its Rona Ridge assets will be up for sale when it comes to FFD. And the assets is what a major will want to buy. They don't want to buy Alistair Stobie, the Hurricane logo, or the photocopying machines. Essentially Spirit (aka Centrica) has 'grabbed' the GWA, as money is not just simply available for initial drilling, but further future sums have been mentioned for GWA FFD, subject to FID's. So a major has missed the boat there. Which leaves GWA and Whirlwind. Still up for grabs.
In other words, I personally think takeover talk is just that. Talk: without foundation.
The fact that Hurricane hasn't yet mentioned a CPR for Warwick doesn't mean they won't commission one. In fact as I posted early, I believe it's inconceivable that they won't do that.
Blueclyde,
"on the other hand saying that Hurricane wont be around to produce another CPR. As such how to you possibly agree to any sort of take over without knowing the true potential?"
You're new here, so although you've alrea
I'm unconvinced that a further CPR will happen.
Once we have data from both projects as 2019 moves on, we will see whether or not majors are interested.
The TO value will depend entirely on any successes and with the 'right' results we will see imo a result by end 2019.
I suggest that the 'right' result has to include excellent flows from GWA and going to plan in the EPS on Lancaster.
In meantime I'm far from convinced that we won't see completely unforeseen interests emerging, this is explo while prices are high after all!
Out of interest what take over price do people think would be acceptable balancing future reserves prospects and cash flow. I guess that's why we are ultimately invested here the scope for large reserves upgrades leading to large production figures. Bearing in mind that once if becomes a producer you aren't going to give away a cash cow if it keeps hitting and flowing oil despite the lack of a CPR report.
Blueclyde
imo the only shareholder holder who will have to agree initially with a to bid is Kerogen.
If good enough for them, most will be happy I think and accept.
The fields (if drilled successfully) would naturally lead to a new CPR but given the time to produce such a document and the possible availability of data in a) the CPR, b) what the company publishes following the drill and c) how the EPS performs.
Such info in the round may give people the confidence to move but not likely until later in year and possibly before any revised CPR ever sees the light of day.
Indeed but the argument seems to be that if we get positive results from the three well drilling campaign coming up these aren't going to be considered into an updated 2C and yet on the other hand saying that Hurricane wont be around to produce another CPR. As such how to you possibly agree to any sort of take over without knowing the true potential?
'You are alluding to the fact that Hurricane will be bought out some time next year.'
It's not a fact until it happens!
You’re missing the point too.
My point though as stated by various RNS's is that the CPR figure is influenced by each well. Where your argument falls down is that it is possible the 2C figure could be revised downwards if Lancaster wells don't meet expectations. We wouldn't need an official CPR if Lancaster is dry.
It pointless arguing about this as we have three wells coming up on the field so I expect we will know soon enough the data they reveal.
You are alluding to the fact that Hurricane will be bought out some time next year. Can you share your thoughts on this in terms of price ect you have in mind.
Some interesting points being raised in this thread.
Ricfle,
'As Hurricane have not indicated that they will commission a further CPR'
Maybe not indicated such so far. However it is inconceivable that Warwick will not be the subject of a CPR once the two wells there have been drilled. In fact I feel it is most likely that this will be compiled once the three (including Lincoln) have been drilled, becouse it's probable that with sensors down one well while another is being DST tested, the GWA 'all one field' hypothesis may go some way to being proved or otherwise.
However, that may very possibly be the last CPR we'll see for quite a long time. There will come a point where updated reserve / resource figures will come from the company's own figures without recourse to a third party. In other words, the company becomes considered its own 'competent person'. A CPR is not a requirement for every new field discovered, let alone for each further appraisal which may result in the figures increasing or otherwise. If thet were the case, the oil industry would only progress at snail's-pace. Instead a CPR is simply an 'informational tool' directly related to attracting investment.
I tend to agree with our new poster 'Blueclyde' that we'll see changes in reserves figures as more wells are drilled. Remember the phrase Dr T used? "Big fields have a habit of getting bigget!"
BLUECLYDE
"Perhaps you could explain then why each drilling campaign on Lancaster resulted in updated 2C figures"
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The three wells between the 2013 CPR and the 2017 CPR on Lancaster redefined the OWC, the water saturation, confirmed an aquifer drive, among other factors leading to an increases in the 2C figures.
The 2017 CPR for Lincoln states that it an analogy of Lancaster, so the same factors have been taken into account. The horizontal well on Lincoln will not be anywhere near the OWC, which is specific to Lincoln.
You should also note that the "2C official figure" only changes when a CPR is published. I very much doubt Hurricane will be in existence long enough after the 3 GWA drills to commission a CPR in any case.
Now would you like to explain how you think it will increase the 2C figure?
Just to clarify that the GWA drilling campaign is totally independent from the Lancaster EPS. Confirmed by HUR.
GLA.
I think you’re missing the point of the CPR.