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WHY does the Empire Energy boss make more and louder marketing than the boss of Falcon for the Falcon/TBN well test results? WHY is POQ so quiet???
PS -- don't miss the part in Alex's interview where he talks about his recent travels to gas conferences in the States, and how everyone he meets is saying great things about the SSH1 flow results -- (which bodes well for an EQT level of buyer interest in Falcon down the line).
MANY THANKS dprussky -- as Alex's comments from the 10 minute mark to the end of the interview about Brian and the SSH1 well are probably the most positive comments about the SSH1 and the future strength of the Beetaloo to date!!!
Alex has nothing but praise for how the SSH1 well, with it's 5.5 inch casing and slick water frack design is performing. Alex even commented about the decline rate being an extremely low decline rate -- which the recent Sentinel shot seems to be indicating too. Worth listening to again -- anytime I get nervous about our bird's future prospects. GLA
Around the middle to the end. AU talking about Tambo results and BS investments really positive. https://www.raasgroup.com/live/asxeeg-empire-energy-group-raas-interview-8-april-2024/
WillowGrove you said it very succinctly in my opinion. I think you hit the nail on the head or in my parlance pinned the tail on the donkey! Just for fun checkout the media article from years ago that Falcon hunts a major payday for investors in the Irish Times. Just google it. Compare where we where are to today. What a contrast with this guy. It would be interesting to have an audit performed to see what the insiders actually own compared to what they have disclosed. Regardless this leprechaun has no scruples and is a lousy poker player in my opinion as he has turned over his cards. Of the $5million left in the kitty $2.1 has been allocated to our investor friendly CEO. for all of his years of service. The BOD should be sued for lack of fiduciary duty in my humble opinion
Yes, flare appears to be larger, it measures approx 20m more in diameter than the flare from March, possibly a good sign.
Bigger or just a better picture?
Flare April 7
Https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84089&lng=133.65215&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-04-07T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-04-07T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Flare 13 March
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84089&lng=133.65215&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-03-13T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-03-13T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Much bigger!
Flare looks great, and seems to be larger in diameter than previous images???
I hear you Oleo. While a seller may have what they spent over the years in the back of their mind a buyer will only care about the horizon and what's to come. If oil and gas was still a thriving industry and not in wind down mode then maybe Falcon could do better but the reality is there is likely 20-30 years left in oil and gas at any significant level (as it will go on at a reduced level for way longer) and any buyers will know that Falcon can't unlock the value in the asset and the longer we have to give up stakes in drills thr value reduces. While share price isn't necessarily a good guage of value in this instance, it is what the market values the company at whether you like it or not and any purchaser will reference it as a jumping off point in any sale. If we book significant gas to our reserves that will help. It's just my opinion at the end of the day and certainly not worth too much contemplation from anyone to be honest. I just enjoy all the machinations on this forum and throwing mine in the ring. have been on both sides of a few deals in my time but every deal is different and what you really want in any deal is competitive tension between two interested parties. No doubt what the falcon board will be aiming for when the decide to execute their exit plan..
" I'd say it will be bought within 18 months for between 500m and 1bn and there may or may not be one more small raise before then. "
If somebody overtakes FOG for 500 million $, this would be a grand theft for me. I estimate that during all the years FOG has invested more than 500 m $ and even more true when you calculate the present value of the in the past invested money in the Beetalloo.
For example YPF goes all in now in Argentina to produce shale gas/oil:
"Argentina M&A Opportunity! YPF plans to offload a significant part of its conventional upstream business, enabling it to focus on its Vaca Muerta assets. The company's conventional production is around 135,000 bbl/d oil and 380 MMcf/d gas - this is a potentially transformational opportunity for the country’s small to mid-size E&Ps.
Welligence has done a deep dive on the divestment program. In our report, we analyze the following..."
There are people, companies who see a good value for shale gas/oil. It would be stupidity on the one side and a grand theft on the other side when FOG gets overtaken for small pocket money.
Frack,
Once the options expire worthless they're gone though. So another round to replace them wouldn't affect that I don't believe.
Excellent post frackme -- and most likely the correct scenario for Falcon over the next 18 months!!
The board are limited to 10% of the free float so they are about half way there. Hard to justify to your shareholders issuing many more options though when a share price is falling. Fastest way to get a vote of no confidence. We are at an interesting intersection. Real value is being created with these flow rates and will further increase with the results of the next 2 wells but if the share price stays static or declines it will make the route to more options very risky. I don't think you'll see the board issuing any more options this year unless the share price increases significantly. After all it's their fiduciary responsibility to create value for the shareholders, hard to justify it even if it's happening when the share price goes backwards. It's walking a tightrope. I'd say we'll sell in the next 18 months especially if the flow rates are good in the next two wells. Falcon hasn't the resources to unlock the real value and any purchaser will want to pick the company up cheap and not be paying anywhere close to the NPV that the empire article is putting out. I'd say it will be bought within 18 months for between 500m and 1bn and there may or may not be one more small raise before then.
This is the thing. They can just issue more options to replace any that expire....and more.
Frackme -- since we are currently trading just above 7P -- hopefully (LOL) we don't see 20 million of new options being granted at this year's AGM in July -- with a 2028 expiry???
Well the grant price is between 8 and 15 so they are only valuable above those prices and they you have to pay CGT on anything above that price. When they lapse if you haven't exercised they are gone. So they are worthless below the exercise price and they are worthless after the lapse date so if I was a beating man which I am because I'm invested in Falcon I'd say it would be safe to assume they don't want to lose the 20m at 8p that lapse in 2026 so I'd say you'll see a sale before then
I see what you mean. I assume when these options are exercised we will get an RNS(RNSs) , so gives a bit of a time scale as to how they might want to maximise the extracted value having made their options purchases.
Atb,
Northern
If you want the best indicator of the minimum price we will sell for and an indicative timeline. Check out note 9 on page 12 on the last set of published financial statements on their website.
https://falconoilandgas.com/download/falcon-financial-statements-30-september-2023/
I don't know many boards who would let 60m of share options lapse before extracting the value.
I think personally that your figure is cheap. If you go back in time and look at POQ's valuations charts this is way too cheap for wells that are flow as good as the best in the states. I think much higher....this guy will to quote him " extract the maximum out of a buyer" ...keep in mind his options....just my opinion...Camelot
I assume it will be difficult to find a buyer who is willing to pay the 10 fold share price. But I also think that overtaking FOG for 1 US$, 1 british Pound is too cheap. And thats the reason I think it is POQs job to show more activities for increasing FOGs share price. Otherwise I see the risk that somebody could overtake FOG with a too low share price.
Your right bloobird, I think i had a senior moment there.
Origin768
I don't think it works like that. Each individual acre is only 22% owned by FOG ... they can't just chop bits off and sell to a third party. If that WAS the case then FOG could just pick the best blocks to sell.
Yes, I agree. The more things gear up towards production, the more expensive our 22.5% becomes, which is why the opt out was a smart move for Falcon, with the cards we hold, and we avoid diluting, or reducing our percentage.
I hope this won't be the case, but could POQ consider selling part of our acreage or sell individual blocks of 72,000 acres?
If so, the price per acre would be hefty, Aus is possibly the place most big companies would choose to be in the world at this moment!
Northern, while a $1.50 US price range is not totally out of the upper range on a sale, it is worth keeping in mind that there is no cash flow and no infrastructure in place -- all of which will be very expensive for any buyer of Falcon's 22.5% interest.
Any buyer of Falcon's 22.5% interest will have to have a very large cash reserve in order to cover their share of what will be very expensive wells in the first couple of years, plus their share of an expensive gas processing plant, gathering pipelines to the processing plant etc. etc. -- all long before any cash flow starts to offset some of the forward costs.
Camelot -- you may want to hope that POQ hasn't been reading all your posts -- as he might sell for 5 cents -- just to see "how you like them apples" -- LOL.
On a separate note -- Tamboran's share price took a small hit today in Aussieland, but still holding up better than Falcon (but then again everything holds up better than Falcon -- sheesh). Tamboran could be down as those investors start taking into account the fact that the rest of the Pilot Production wells will cost Tamboran a great deal more now -- since Falcon's move to let Tamboran and BS shoulder 95% of the costs going forward.
Tamboran shares could also be down a bit as those Aussie investors start to take into account the reality that Riddle is going to be diluting Tamboran by a massive amount when the listing in the US finally gets completed. Even Falcon needs to see that listing in the US happen for Tamboran fairly soon -- in order for Tamboran to match the over $100 million in US funds that BS has raised to cover his share of the Pilot Program.