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No way am I wasting my time and money now, I don't see any point now as the questions I wanted to ask are irrelevant for this year.
Question is how much of a punishment will the market inflict on us today ? I bet AB wont attend this afternoon either !
So are you not going now krakenoil? This is really like ground hog day! Same shite different day as you wrote
I honestly was looking forward to todays update and the AGM, how bloody wrong we all were ! Misery continues
Wheres pelle? I know i have broken my promise somewhat but this was a dogs breakfast. Really enough is enough. Tine to go AB. This is just like Therese. Cant see the writing on the Wall or people Drawing their fingers over their throats
Wont be wasting my time going this afternoon now, don't see the point now. same old shite different day ! We are no further along than we were last year to be honest, the BOD wont give anything away after that dismal update. Its as if they don't want the Mcap increasing from current levels. Maybe that's the plan so AB can keep accumulating at these levels.
Balls !
I'm with L3 on many of these issues.
On production, the expectation is that Kraken has improved over the last 2 months, the hope is that Magnus is moving above 18K but the fear is that the legacy fields are declining at a faster rate than has been guided. While average production may be up on the 67.7K for the first two months, we know most of the maintenance activities occur later in the year. Enquest has all the info so any revision to full year guidance would be more significant than the absolute YTD production number.
On debt, as L3 points out, there is a Kraken deferral ($55m) so any repayment over the year could be lumpy. I would not hang my hat on an absolute value for the YTD number but I suspect Enquest may add some commentary around it.
Hi L3
Lets see what we get tomorrow, you always so many detail questions:-)
Need to visit the AGM.
Think Kraken done fairly well last weeks also close to 40k.
For me it feels we climed the hill now surely and now its just a matter of how fast we can run down.
And where company want to be in 3-5 years vision and where to allocate the money in future.
Your right share price tomorrow is irrelevant if holding for long run, but its nice feeling get a possitive momentun on that as well. Specially after this last half year.
Good luck tomorrow
Pelle,
Production estimate: no clue, but if you want a number i will say 69.9K bopd. i would want to know what happened in the last 4 weeks with Armada Kraken / Kraken. we know it can produce 45K on a good day, but in the last month it was not producing at this rate day in day out.
questions:
1) What is the water cut on kraken from the first three DCs?
2) Magnus: is it producing over 21k boepd?
3) Alma/Galia: what is going on?
Net debt: not clear how much progress will have been made. ENQ might have had to pay down "payables" by a lot, and had Capex from Kraken, so, that might have constrained net debt reduction in the first 4 months. if enq were to provide a figure in the $1600sM, then it will have done surprisingly well.
this was last year's update in May:
"At 30 April 2018, cash and available bank facilities amounted to $204.8 million.
The Group's improving cash flow generation capacity is enabling the early cancellation of $50 million
of the Group's credit facility by the end of May, with the term facility reducing from $1,125 million to $1,075 million. Upon cancellation, the Group's cash and available bank facilities will therefore reduce
by $50 million.
The Group has hedged c.7.5 MMbbls of oil for 2018 at an average price of c.$62/bbl."
questions:
1) how many MMbbls are hedged in the Q2, Q3, Q4? At what floor price?
2) guidance on net debt reduction.
3) by when does the waterfall arrangement for Magnus will have fully repapid $100M?
SP tomorrow: irrelevant. as long as production s up and net debt is being paid down the SP will at some point move up. irrelevant if that happens tomorrow.
the interesting thing with AGMs is that you can guess whether there will be useful answers or not by the ceo, cfo and coo, at the start of the meeting.
GLA
If we break 23.5p and hold into close along with Brent holding around today’s lows, should give us another good leg up next week when we start seeing inventories decline and Brent rising
PMO was up by 8p last week on the results day so am hoping SP would touch 25p easily and close at 24.90p :-) If any buy ratings from Brokers next week then bye bye to 21p and 30p soon!
Production 71.3k Debt reduction to $1.7b personally not enough. No to deramp but we will end at 21.5p the sell on news will be no different. GL at the AGM everyone and can someone ask projected debt reduction and FCF year end please.
28p. The worm has officially turned..
Enquestrians,
Production - 69,250
Net debt - Leave it to the clever ones
Closing Price - A lot closer to my average . . .pleeeeease. (That'll be a rise in case you hadn't guessed).
Loving the milkshake comment but hope none required.
Enjoy the AGM
All the best to all true holders for tomorrow.
DD
Hi all I predict that net debt down to 1670, production 70k and sp 25
Prod Jan-April: 71 500
Net debt: 1690
Share closing price: 23,9
Any guesses tomorrow?
Mine
Prod Jan-April: 72k
Net debt: 1700
Share closing price: 24,75p