The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
This is one of those extremely long-term and well run companies that, like JCB, prove that old-school things (that people actually do always need and want) can be done very profitably in the UK.
Results look excellent to me in the circumstances. Hike in the divi shows confidence. I was nearly stop lossed out of this one but luckily it just held. I can see a recovery from here, This was 2000p at one point but is definitely oversold. Buy!
Up and down like a yoyo
Strong price rise after a weak update. What's behind the sudden jump?
Nice rise today into the all important Xmas period. CHH has joined the Santa Claus rally it seems and a decent trading statement could help drive further gains.
Decent set of interim results given the very challenging macro-economic background. Strong revenue growth and customer demand, but predictably margins were slightly down due to increased labour and energy costs. Price rises have been implemented to offset. These pressures are something the majority of manufacturing businesses are facing. With its high gross margins, strong brand and product, vertical integration and long history of innovation, Churchill will be better-placed than most to survive and eventually thrive. Shares of Churchill tucked away in my SIPP and happy to hold for the long-term.
Morning all. Maybe energy costs will weigh on this as well ass shipping etc. I havent traded this which is a pity as it was £20 Aat one stage. I like the company but frustrated to see paper gains wither away. A PW would sink this lower obviously so RR has to be weighed here.
Are you a holder or a browser/potential buyer of CHH? It's probably quiet for a good reason. This is not a 'racy' get rich/get poor quick share for the traders or whisper mongers. Hopefully, a bit of a hidden gem for buy-and-hold investors... we'll see though.
I've been waiting patiently for a buy in opportunity, having thought the price and valuation had gotten ahead of itself during latter part of 2021. However, I've just initiated a new position in CHH due to recent share price falls. If Buffett invested in UK small caps, Churchill is exactly the kind of company he would like - easy to understand, high returns/profits, conservatively managed and with steady growth prospects. I reckon this is also a Nick Train kind of company due to its longevity and strong brand. In the last trading update, revenues have basically returned to their pre-pandemic levels, and the company is investing in growth and innovation for the long-term with good sales growth in the European market. Inflation may dampen margins a little, but this is a vertically integrated company that sources its own raw material, manufactures, markets and distributes its own product - so will be in much better shape than the majority.
Sept 21 is far to long without any posts..
...maybe someone will update.
Good luck all
" I am expecting a bounce off the 1975 resistance level, and then there is quad witching on the 17th of this month. "
Maybe I should expand on this expection. IMO, ( this is just an opinion, I am so ****e on predictions. I have considered trading contrary to my beliefs) .
I expect the markets to recover from the 17th Sept, through October and November, barring any unforeseen bad news, so CHH may break the 1975 - 2000 resistance, the next quad witching is 17th Dec, so the markets should recover till then. But when the FED eventually have the balls to taper QE is anyones guess. But it could be January 22.
I am tempted to buy more near the 17th Sept if there is a retrace. I know this is against a balanced portfolio, I assume there are exceptions to this rule. Warren here I come.
Good luck, Alex
Hi Fallingknife, I bought these Mar 2005 at 231.5, CHH has risen 18.9 x since then and I am overwieght 2.4 x my average share holding.
I am expecting a general market pullback or correction by end of December, So am looking to take profits from a few overwieght shares in my portfolio.
Looking at CHH I am really reluctant to sell some to balance my position and taking the 10% CGT hit, because since 2005 this share has usually been 30% undervalued and has continually grown for long term holders, which the Roper family are who own 10% between three family members who also would wish to see continued growth creation.
My delemma is, am I attached to this share and being emotionally influenced by my gains, and therefore should take profit or should I hold on to a 'well run gold mine' ?
I am expecting a bounce off the 1975 resistance level, and then there is quad witching on the 17th of this month.
Delemma, delemma. Best of luck Alex
bump :)
I've no idea, but the share price rally (almost doubling from the lows) may have got ahead of itself. Based on no real positive news of earnings, other than talk of resilience and a strong platform for future growth. There's a lot to like about this business, and I'd like to buy for the long-term, but the unbroken rally combined with a wide bid/offer spread makes me want to wait for a better entry point.
Hi all, I have written a new article on Churchill China for my website - analysis of recent results, financial position and whether Churchill passes as a quality business. Enjoy! https://www.thetwentiestrader.com/post/churchill-china-annual-report-and-investment-case
Now that we are emerging from Covid I think CHH can recover to maybe 2000p. There must be a lot of pent-up demand for its products. Furthermore digital channels are surely being explored and expanded. PMP seems to be doing well also so some peer franking of the business.
would have been a good short Aidan along with the whole market! I expect the divi will be cancelled. I sold some at 1895 but should have soled more on the way down. Still love the company and may buy more actually if the virus stops progressing in China.Could be a good bellweather for a turnaround.
Wanted to short this today but can't due to stock market borrowing. Since guidance that results will come in higher than expectations price has risen to PE of 27. I reckon if EPS comes in at under 85p you will most likely see a fall here
but at least ahead of expectations. Is it enough for investors to dine out on though?
handed my behind on a plate. My insurance top slicing as I feared CHH has peaked was timed too soon. There is a nice pattern of buying which means my remaining holding is blossoming. There might be a trading statement tomorrow so some advance positioning is understandable.
Morning CJ, thanks for your comments. I hope I am wrong too as it means my remaining 80% will go up in value. We just had a buy at full ask so it is possible that CHH will now rise in advance of the results. I really like the company but I saw my PMP shares almost double then later had the ignominy of selling at a loss. I don't want to be caught out again. If we get a rise to between 1900p and 2000p pre-results then I will sell another percentage.
Hate to say I hope your wrong - but I will, however I understand the sentiment !
Interims were T/O up 17%, Profit up 30% and cash generated up 41% - with Dudson designs not yet contributing materially.
Against that they do have a high PE ratio and low dividend % with the price having nearly doubled in the year 2019.
It's a growing business at a deserved premium, but there is no room for a slip up - I would buy them back if the price does fall very far....
as I don't want to be caught out by a market correction or a weaker trading statement around the 10th of January. More so the overall market than Churchill but I have been very pleased with my investment here and don;t mind leaving some for the next guy.
Thanks for the tip CJ. I probably spread myself too thinly in trading. Always chasing the rainbow. Not sold these but have bought the dips as I have confidence in the shares. You only need one bad quarter though to lose 25%. Well someone or some fund has paid 1870p which is an all-time high so things are going swimmingly. I might sell say 20% coming up to the New Year as perhaps an excellent q4 is built into the price. And this is a crucial trading period. Great to see it nudge above 1800p again on the bid.
Thanks Knife, and I have to admit I thought it would be shortly before results next year that they might hit £18. Not usually a full year trading statement until 1st week of Jan.
Purely peoples own way of running things - but what I have done with a share like this where the overall longer term trajectory seems heavily weighted to going upwards,
is build a holding your happy to keep for longer term say 2500 shares or whatever,
then I have bought a few 'extra' when I thought it was low - say 500 shares.
Then sold these 500 when it has gained say £1. (as it's ups & downs are exaggerated)
I have done this 4 times with this share in the last 2 years - avoiding the disappointment of having sold and missed out when the price carries on higher, but also been happy to bank a small profit of say £500, and wait to see if another opportunity arises.
Of course if your a millionaire just ignore this and hold them!