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London South East Natural Resources Briefing webcast: #Emmerson #Alba #Condor Gold #Gold analysis
Angus Energy in talks to buy 'transformational' gas asset in North England


Columbus Energy Share Chat (CERP)



Share Price: 2.525Bid: 2.50Ask: 2.55Change: 0.00 (0.00%)No Movement on Columbus Energy
Spread: 0.05Spread as %: 2.00%Open: 2.525High: 2.525Low: 2.525Yesterday’s Close: 2.525


Share Discussion for Columbus Energy




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Dazbrad
Posts: 2,963
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
Definition of working out SWP: Popping several, or more, of the supposed 12 at around say 50-150m barrels, after money generated from the initial well(s) that you mention. Don't forget, an aspiration of £500m mcap isn't based on just th one shallow well, but on success of SWP as a whole(whatever that may be). The progression of which will develop at an increasing rate as one success affords the next. So given that as a rough guide to my personal definition, what would you then say?
 
SoupChicken
Posts: 213
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
Daz, can you define what you mean by "work out". I would say a very , very good result for SWP would be 150 bbls-d in the first well. But sorry to say even that best case scenario that will not get you close to a 500 MC company in 3 years, even if you drill a few of these a year and we assume (wrongly) that each has a 100% CoS.

So yes you are also being delusional with SWP.
LGO-fan
Posts: 2,910
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
good post
Dazbrad
Posts: 2,963
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
SC - So in the event that SWP does works out well for CERP, what would you make of LKs aspirations to become a £500m mcap company then?
Dazbrad
Posts: 2,963
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
SC - Thats a reduction of 10%, from the 100% increase that LK has helped us gain, is a slight retrace....we already know about declines so a 10% drop isn't anything to get suprised about IMO. You can call it hiding if you like, but if you read just 1 post back you would realise that I accept that it's not as simple as just oil prices....So definetly not hiding as you describe.

Ramper?!?!......Are you able to demonstrate where I have ever ramped before, or was that just a tactic to falsely portray me, or anyone like me, as an investor in denial?

As for the £500m mcap, on the basis that SWP pulls off as I would like, then absolutely. If we don't pull it off, then I can't see it happening without a stroke of luck elsewhere?
SoupChicken
Posts: 213
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
Daz, production dropped by over 10% . If that is described as "slight" then I don't even want to see a "moderate" reduction.

Leo has missed this target by a country mile. Implying he missed this deliberately because oil prices were not favourable, is nonsense. And it is something I can't understand about rampers. It is your money and your investment, you only hurt yourself by hiding.

Do you agree he will miss his "500 million MC" in 5 years by an even larger margin, given that after 2 years it now stands at 23.5 ?
Dazbrad
Posts: 2,963
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
LLL - Perhaps if Ritson didn't take a gamble on his drilling campaign where the drill piece broke, and inevitably screwed the company in doing so, he too could have enjoyed the rewards that such a mistake would have otherwise allowed him. But he didn't and lost out.....along with shareholders back then.

Yes, workovers on a continuous basis has a cost, but when compared to Ritsons 6bopd from a $500k shallow well, times 3 that were completed on his partially finished final campaign, then I'd hands down prefer LKs method, which made cash generative increases that Ritsons cash depleting method simply couldn't.

I think Garnheims last post details part of the reason that production has dropped slightly. To be fair, I agree that cash restraints do play a part, but unlike Ritson, LK has purchased extra assets, presumably to have to not rely on Goudron so heavily, but which cash spent, could see us with 4 near free fields, or 5 fields for $4.5m with Predator paying the costs to provide us with more oil....with the chance to see if C02 on TI is the answer to possibly unlocking Goudrons production too.

I hear what you say, but do nothing with Goudron, and as history has already told us, declines will otherwise shaft us. Catch22, we can't just sell Goudron with nowhere else to go, but we can certainly expand our footprint whilst preparing for a sell in the background. I think we all see the curse of Goudron, Inc LK, but doing nothing is not IMO a solution.
LayLadyLay
Posts: 3,012
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
Daz - "LK is already producing oil, which has actually increased once he took over."

It's true that production has increased since the last days of Ritson but there's something people overlook when they proclaim that LK has increased production. Goudron requires constnt well workovers to keep the oil flowing. Stop doing workovers or minimise them to save costs and production soon falls off a cliff. In the final year of Ritson he was unable to carry out much of this well maintenance because BNP-Paribas were in control of finances and they only allowed minimal well interventions to keep the oil flowing sufficiently for them to recoup the money that LGO owed them. Given the funds that LK has at his disposal I believe that Ritson would be more than able to achieve the current production numbers.

LK hasn't worked any miracles and he has struggled to reach the production targets that were hinted at when he first arrived. He has funds available but is currently in cash conservation mode and is limiting the number of rigs being used for workovers as they cost real hard cash to operate. So he balances cost against production so as to maintain his claim of being operationally cash flow positive.

Note what he says in this latest RNS and you can see how he managed to hit his 1000 bopd target at the end of December.

" Lower production was due to significantly reduced well work activity. A single workover rig was utilised continuously in Q1 2019 compared to up to 4 units simultaneously in Q4 2018"

When LK talks of cash flow positive you have to remember that this is at the operational level. Overall the cash balance in Q1 reduced by US$540,000 from the start of the quarter despite generating cash from operations.There is a quarterly cash defecit that has to be bridged to avoid an inevitable future funds raising exercise of some sort, be it placing, loan or via some other mechanism, all of which are likely to impact on shareholder value. LK seems to be hoping that the SWP will provide that boost to production that will bridge the gap. It may well prove to be successful but as in all things of an exploratory nature the chances of success has to be viewed in the context of industry norms.

I think CERP is sailing close to the wind but that's just my opinion. SWP is an unknown and until one or more drills have been carried out we can only speculate on whether or not SWP is going to be transformational or not. I hope that talk of a possible acquisition outside of T&T is a viable option and not just a diversion. CERP may fly high but has to be careful not to fly too close to the sun or it may suffer the same fate as Icarus. GLA.
Dazbrad
Posts: 2,963
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
RE: KOOT
19 Apr '19
Pete - Hi. Only a very minor correction to the line "start producing oil you knob"........"start producing 'more' oil you knob", because as it stands, LK is already producing oil, which has actually increased once he took over.....I would hate for our resident Mr Uber Positive Ross to pick you up on that mistake!
pikeypete
Posts: 748
Opinion:No Opinion
Price:2.825
KOOT
19 Apr '19
start producing oil you knob ,,, getting tired of your to morrow ,,, ritson was really bad are you next in line




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