Hardman & Co Research: Arbuthnot Banking Group (ARBB): 2020 results in line; 2021 outlook: strong recovery

Hardman & Co Research: 2020 results in line; 2021 outlook: strong recovery

The key highlights from the FY'20 results were a small loss (as expected), with breakeven excluding deal costs. Margin pressure (from base-rate cuts) and a £2m rise in impairments, despite there being zero higher-risk Stage 2/3 property exposures over 80% LTV (2019 over £30m), were the main drivers. The 2021 outlook is for i) a strong recovery, driven by loan volume growth, ii) less pain from excess liquidity, iii) profits generated by Asset Alliance after acquisition (completed end-March, which will also see a £10m equity uplift, as it is being bought below book), iv) a gain on the sale of Tay mortgages, v) forecast lower impairments, and vi) a dividend from STB.

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