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Jolly Ranch Reserves Report

28 Apr 2011 07:00

RNS Number : 5788F
Nighthawk Energy plc
28 April 2011
 



 

 

 

NIGHTHAWK ENERGY PLC

("Nighthawk" or "the Company")

 

Jolly Ranch Reserves Report

 

Nighthawk, the US focused hydrocarbon development and production company (AIM: HAWK and OTCQX: NHEGY), announces the conclusions of the Gaffney, Cline and Associates ("GCA") Reserves and Resource Report on the Jolly Ranch Project, in which the Company holds a 50% working interest.

 

Highlights

 

·; 2P Reserves only assigned to the two wells projected, on the basis of production to date, to recover greater than 20,000 bbl (gross)

·; 3P Reserves attributed over limited areal extent of just five wells (c. 200 acres of the project's 410,000 acres)

·; Reserves assessment based on Decline Curve Analysis method and derivation of "type curves"

·; Reserves currently based only on two discrete intervals in the Cherokee formation

·; Well portfolio needs expanding to establish Contingent Resources numbers and provide a true reflection of project's value

·; Report highlights additional work required in order to determine the optimal commercial completion technique

 

Reserves

The declaration of Proved Reserves by GCA has been limited to wells that are projected to recover 20,000 barrels or more. The declaration is based on Decline Curve Analysis, assigning reserves as defined by the SPE Petroleum Resources Management System ("PRMS"). Therefore, proved reserves have only been attributed, at this stage, for two wells with continuous production from the Cherokee formation, namely the Craig 4-4 and Craig 16-32.

 

Furthermore, it should be noted that these reserves are limited to discrete interbedded Cherokee intervals within these wells. Other horizons, especially within the Atoka formation, have been excluded due to the current lack of adequate production data or the absence of data in the case of uncompleted horizons. The current and future work programme will focus on determining the correct method and optimum target within these other horizons to build value.

 

All of the reserves quoted below are gross, representing 100% of the working interest in the project.

 

Proved Reserves

The Craig 4-4 is completed in two Cherokee horizons; the Tebo between 6,644 ft and 6,664 ft and the Tebo 'B', between 6,705 ft and 6,711 ft. The Craig 16-32 is completed in the Cherokee 'A' between 6,526 ft and 6,530 ft.

 

The following table shows the predicted Estimated Ultimate Recovery for these wells from initial production, cumulative production, and Proved reserves as at 19 March 2011. The decline curve analysis uses an exponential decline for Proved reserves.

 

Well

Estimated Ultimate Recovery (Decline Curve Analysis) (Mbbl)

Cumulative Production 19 Mar 2011 (Mbbl)

Reserves (Proved) Mbbl

Craig 4-4

28

24

4

Craig 16-32

33

13

20

Total

61

37

24

 

Probable Reserves

Incremental Probable reserves have been estimated utilising a hyperbolic decline curve analysis for the Craig 16-32 well.

 

Well

Estimated Ultimate Recovery (Decline Curve Analysis) (Mbbl)

Cumulative Production 19 Mar 2011 (Mbbl)

Reserves (Mbbl)

Proved

Probable

Craig 16-32

64

13

20

31

 

Possible Reserves

Incremental Possible reserves are given for wells that are on the current recompletion programme and focus only on the Cherokee formations.

 

Well

Possible Initial Production Rate (BOPD)

Possible Reserves (Mbbl)

Craig 7-34

45

17

 

Craig 15-34

45

17

 

John Craig 7-2

100

39

 

Total

73

 

 

Total Reserves

Total reserves can therefore be attributed to five wells; two at the Proved level, one of which also contributes at the Probable level, and a further three at the Possible level.

 

The total reserves as at 19 March 2011 are as follows:

 

Reserves

Liquids (Mbbl)

1P

24

 

2P

55

 

3P

128

 

 

The above reserves are based on five wells utilising Nighthawk's operational spacing of 40-acre drainage per well, thus the effective coverage is approximately 200 acres out of the overall gross project acreage of approximately 410,000 acres, around 0.05% of the total held acreage. In order to award additional reserves, further continuous production from other wells and formations will be required.

 

Resource Assessment

Inclusion of Contingent and Prospective Resources requires working interest lands to be developed and further wells to be drilled, which are likely to be both vertical and horizontal. Future production is estimated based on the projected recovery from the decline curves of analogous wells derived from the results of pilot projects.

 

The Jolly Ranch Cherokee/Atoka shale oil project is in the early stages of development and is still in the process of determining the optimum completion and stimulation technique and the optimum intervals on which to apply these techniques. Given the low number of wells drilled to date compared to the potential development programme, the current set of wells with estimated ultimate recovery of 20,000 barrels or more (considered to be the economic minimum) is too small to extrapolate across the wider project area with statistical confidence.

 

In addition, as directly analogous plays are rare, the type curves are unique to each play and it will take more wells to fully develop confident projections of ultimate recovery.

 

Additional recompletions and further drilling/stimulation have to be undertaken to increase and confirm the body of knowledge such that it can be consistently and prudently applied to a wider area. As such, it would be misleading to generate a resource estimate at this time without more wells with successful completions as well as further production track record.

 

Regional Activity

Available results indicate other operators in the county have targeted the Cherokee 'A' unit with encouraging results. Great Plains Field vertical wells, approximately four miles south east of the Company's John Craig 7-2 well, have cumulative production exceeding 60,000 bbl in the Cherokee 'A' per well.

 

In addition, Newfield Exploration Company recently drilled the Mosher 1-1H, approximately five miles to the North East of the Craig Ranch area, and completed the Cherokee 'A' unit through a horizontal lateral. Due to the confidential nature of the well, little information has been released, but it is reported on the online Colorado State Oil and Gas Information System that the well produced approximately 10,000 barrels of oil over the last six months of 2010. This is encouraging and further evaluation will be needed as production increases and data becomes available.

 

Tim Heeley, CEO of Nighthawk, commented:

 

"Although as expected these initial reserve numbers are low this merely reflects the fact we are in the early days of developing the Jolly Ranch shale project.

 

"The GCA report underlines the potential value and highlights the additional work required in order to determine the optimal commercial completion and stimulation techniques for the project's Cherokee and Atoka shale acreage.

 

"Drilling by other companies in the area, plus continued leasing activity, helps reinforce our strategy and we will continue to execute our work programme in a logical fashion to achieve our strategic goals."

 

 

Tim Heeley B.Eng (Hons), a member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, Fellow of the Geological Society of London and a Chartered Energy Engineer, who is CEO of Nighthawk and has over 15 years of experience in the hydrocarbons industry, has approved the technical information contained in this announcement.

 

 

Nighthawk Energy plc

Tim Heeley, CEO

Michael Thomsen, Executive Chairman

 

020 3405 1982

+1 720 344 5154

Westhouse Securities Limited

Tim Feather

Matthew Johnson

020 7601 6100

tim.feather@westhousesecurities.com

matthew.johnson@westhousesecurities.com

Matrix Corporate Capital LLP

James Pope

020 3206 7000

james.pope@matrixgroup.co.uk

Financial Dynamics

Ben Brewerton

Ed Westropp

 

020 7831 3113

ben.brewerton@fd.com

edward.westropp@fd.com

 

Notes

Nighthawk aims to unlock and establish value in the Pennsylvanian Cherokee and Atoka formations, an unconventional shale oil play. As such, the Company's focus is not on identifying conventional structures and trapping mechanisms but on finding the solution to completing and stimulating wells in the shale and inter-bedded formations.

 

Unconventional resources, such as shale oil, exist in petroleum accumulations that are pervasive throughout a large area and that are not significantly affected by hydrodynamic influences (also called "continuous-type deposits"). Typically, such accumulations require specialised extraction technology such as fracturing programmes.

 

For these petroleum accumulations that are not significantly affected by hydrodynamic influences, reliance on continuous water contacts and pressure gradient analysis to interpret the extent of recoverable petroleum may not be possible. Consequently there is typically a need for increased sampling density to assess uncertainty of in-place volumes, variations in quality of reservoir and hydrocarbons, and their detailed spatial distribution to support detailed design of specialised extraction programmes.

 

Similar to improved recovery projects applied to conventional reservoirs, successful pilots or operating projects in the subject reservoir or successful projects in analogous reservoirs are required to establish a distribution of recovery efficiencies for non-conventional accumulations.

 

Gaffney, Cline & Associates has undertaken a study on behalf of the Company of the Jolly Ranch acreage in Southeastern Colorado based on the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) (approved by the Society of Petroleum Engineers, World Petroleum Council, American Association of Petroleum Geologists, and the Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers in March 2007), which includes definitions for reserves and resources.

 

The Jolly Ranch project is in the early stages of its pilot development. While the Company has stated its determination to unlock the potential of the unconventional oil shale units, GCA is bound by the requirements of the PRMS in reviewing the project at this stage, and as such the estimated volumes reflect the current status of the wells and the incomplete current work programme of recompletions and completions.

 

Glossary of technical terms

 

1P Reserves

Proved Reserves

2P Reserves

Summation of Proved and Probable Reserves

3P Reserves

Summation of Proved, Probable and Possible Reserves

BOPD

Barrels of oil per day

Contingent Resources

Those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but the applied project(s) are not yet considered mature enough for commercial development due to one or more contingencies. Contingent Resources may include, for example, projects for which there are currently no viable markets, or where commercial recovery is dependent on technology under development, or where evaluation of the accumulation is insufficient to clearly assess commerciality. Contingent Resources are further categorised in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be subclassified based on project maturity and/or characterised by their economic status.

Decline Curve Analysis

A method for estimating reserves and predicting production in oil reservoirs and oil fields. The decline curve shows how oil and gas production rates decrease over time.

EUR

Estimated Ultimate Recovery, which is not a resources category, but a term which may be applied to any accumulation or group of accumulations (discovered or undiscovered) to define those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable under defined technical and commercial conditions plus those quantities already produced (total of recoverable resources).

Mbbl

thousand barrels of oil

OIIP

Oil Initially In Place

Possible Reserves

Those additional reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data suggest are less likely to be recoverable than Probable Reserves. The total quantities ultimately recovered from the project have a low probability to exceed the sum of Proved plus Probable plus Possible (3P) Reserves, which is equivalent to the high estimate scenario. In this context, when probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 10% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the 3P estimate.

Probable Reserves

Those additional Reserves which analysis of geoscience and engineering data indicate are less likely to be recovered than Proved Reserves but more certain to be recovered than Possible Reserves. It is equally likely that actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater than or less than the sum of the estimated Proved plus Probable Reserves (2P). In this context, when probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50% probability that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the 2P estimate.

Proved Reserves

Those quantities of petroleum, which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under defined economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. If deterministic methods are used, the term reasonable certainty is intended to express a high degree of confidence that the quantities will be recovered. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.

Prospective Resources

Those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations.

Reserves

Those quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions. Reserves must further satisfy four criteria: they must be discovered, recoverable, commercial, and remaining (as of the evaluation date) based on the development project(s) applied. Reserves are further categorised in accordance with the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on project maturity and/or characterised by development and production status

 

 

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
 
END
 
 
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