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Q3 Net Asset Value

27 Oct 2008 07:00

RNS Number : 6911G
Fabian Romania Limited
27 October 2008
Β 

ο»Ώ

27Β OctoberΒ 2008

Fabian Romania Limited (FAB.LN)

Net asset value as at 30Β SeptemberΒ 2008

Fabian Romania LimitedΒ ("Fabian"),Β theΒ AIM listedΒ dedicatedΒ investor in theΒ BucharestΒ and wider Romanian real estate marketΒ announces its Net Asset Value ("NAV") as at 30Β SeptemberΒ 2008.

FabianΒ seeks to generate attractive total returns for its shareholders through a portfolio of income producing buildings,Β co-development residential,Β office,Β logistics and retail projects,Β with experienced partners and land investments. Fabian receives investment advice from Fabian Capital Limited,Β an independent investment management firm that specialises in Romanian real estate investment advice (Fabian Capital Limited does not carry out any regulated activities in theΒ UK).

Β 

Highlights

AtΒ 30Β SeptemberΒ 2008Β theΒ NAV per shareΒ ofΒ FabianΒ asΒ determinedΒ in accordance with its Articles of AssociationΒ was €1.665Β per shareΒ (30Β JuneΒ 2008: €1.667),Β aΒ decreaseΒ ofΒ 0.1Β per cent.Β inΒ theΒ thirdΒ quarter of 2008, practically unchanged from the 31 December 2007Β NAV of €1.666Β andΒ an increaseΒ ofΒ 3.6Β per cent.Β inΒ theΒ last twelve monthsΒ (30Β SeptemberΒ 2007: €1.607).Β 
Adjusting the current NAV for the estimated future development profitsΒ of €0.553Β perΒ share indicates a potential future NAV ("Development Profit NAV" or "DPNAV")Β of €2.218Β per shareΒ (30Β JuneΒ 2008: €2.319),Β aΒ decreaseΒ ofΒ 4.4Β per cent.Β inΒ theΒ thirdΒ quarter of 2008,Β anΒ increaseΒ ofΒ 1.7Β per cent.Β for the year to date (31 December 2007: €2.180)Β and an increaseΒ of 3.5 per cent. in the last twelve months (30 September 2007: €2.142).
The Romanian property market, like other world markets, is now experiencing the effects of the worldwide credit crunch. Accordingly, there have been no investment transactions for valuers,Β DTZ Echinox ("DTZ"), to provide evidence upon which to base the valuation yields for open market valuationsΒ of properties.Β Therefore there can be no certainty that the yields used in determining the above NAV accurately reflect the current open market.
In calculating the NAV the development projects are included using the value of the land prior to the start of construction, to which the cost of the construction work in progress less any advance payments received is added. Any change in the valuation of the project as determined by DTZ is reflected in the estimated future profitability of the project to be realised on completion. The net value of the company's holdings in development land not yet subject to constructionΒ fell €0.3Β millionΒ orΒ 3.3Β perΒ cent.Β over the quarter.
The value ofΒ Fabian'sΒ office portfolio,Β comprisingΒ 33.3 per cent.Β of the company's net assets as at 30 SeptemberΒ 2008, was marked downΒ byΒ 2.6Β per cent.Β during the period, resulting in a fallΒ in valueΒ of €1.8Β million. TheΒ negativeΒ impact of rising yields was partially offset by a combination of higher actual rents for several buildings as a result of new leases signed during the period as well as higher forecast reversionary rents for other leases.Β 
In other assets and liabilities, the company benefited fromΒ theΒ recognition of a loan receivable of €2.6 million from a joint venture.Β 
The reduction in the DPNAV reflects higher forecast exit yields on office projects and recognition of actual costs post commencement of construction of Lakeview.
Annual rental income fromΒ Fabian'sΒ office portfolio increased 3.2 per cent.Β during the quarter. New leases were signed with existing tenants atΒ Cascades and Baneasa Business CentreΒ resulting in rental income growthΒ ofΒ 4.3 per cent. and 4.8 per cent.Β respectively.Β 
As a result of the on-going strength of the Bucharest officeΒ lettingΒ market and despite new leases being signed at higher rents, DTZ now forecast that the company's portfolio of income producing office buildings are now 17.0 per cent. under rented compared to 11.3 perΒ cent.Β as at 30 June 2008.Β 
In line with other countries, the availability of bank credit inΒ RomaniaΒ has now become more difficult. Whilst Romanian GDP grew at an annualised rate of 8.8 per cent in the first half, a number of economists now forecast GDP growth for 2009 of around 4.0 per cent. In the light of an impending slowdown in growth and given current financial market instability, there is less certainty as to the future level ofΒ BucharestΒ office rents for the foreseeable future.
Projects continue to be structured and financed to drive returns albeit in a prudent manner.Β During SeptemberΒ  2008,Β aΒ bankΒ facility for the Romana office development projectΒ was agreed with Bank of Cyprus for both a construction and an investment loan. An initial drawdown is expected in the fourth quarter to repay part of the equity invested to date. Maximum gearing on the construction loan is 83Β per cent. of costs while the investment loan is 75 per cent. of the open market valueΒ once construction is complete for a further term of 17 years.Β Construction on the Romana office development project is progressing on schedule and practical completion is expected in the second quarter of 2010.
In August 2008Β the InvestkreditΒ BankΒ loanΒ secured onΒ the Cascades office buildingΒ wasΒ successfullyΒ refinancedΒ  withΒ a facility ofΒ up to €13.875Β millionΒ fromΒ Bank of Cyprus. 68 per cent of the available facility has been drawn down to date with the remaining 32 per cent.Β available for drawdownΒ in the future.
The maturity profile of the investment loans averages over 10 years. The outstanding project debts requiring refinancing in the near future are the land loan of €2.9 million on the Timisoara residential project, which is expected to be rolled over in December 2008, and on completion of the acquisition of the CubicΒ Centre, expected in the first quarter of 2009, the developer's existing bank loan of €31 million will either be rolled over with the existing lender or will need to be externally refinanced.
Sales at the New Town residential scheme were slow in the third quarter but now total 285 forward sales. The first phase (315 units) is nearing build completion, anticipated in March 2009,Β withΒ over 85Β per cent.Β of this phase already forward sold. Sufficient sales in total have now been achieved to enable full drawdown of the construction loan banking facility.
The strategy to develop residential projects in westernΒ RomaniaΒ has been changed to reduce operational and financial risk. Rather than launch theΒ residential schemes inΒ Timisoara,Β OradeaΒ and Satu MareΒ in the current market, the decisionΒ has been takenΒ toΒ delayΒ commencementΒ until residentialΒ marketΒ conditions areΒ moreΒ  favourable.Β The opportunity willΒ nowΒ be taken toΒ amend the building consents, whenΒ obtained,Β to reflect an increasedΒ number of construction phasesΒ onΒ each scheme thereby reducing risk further and increase the available range of financing options.

Β Β 

Net AssetsΒ of €1.665Β per shareΒ 

Fabian'sΒ NAV as at 30Β SeptemberΒ 2008 is €1.665Β per share,Β aΒ decreaseΒ ofΒ 0.1Β per cent. from theΒ secondΒ quarter's NAV of €1.667Β perΒ share.Β 

TheΒ published NAV has been calculated consistently in accordance with Fabian's Articles of Association. TheΒ income producingΒ buildingsΒ are valuedΒ based on values as determined by DTZ using estimated market yields. However, in the current market conditions and with a lack of evidence of transactions to provide a comparison, there can be no certainty that the yields used for the valuations will accurately reflect the open market value of the buildings. The development projects are included using the value of the land prior to the start of construction, to which the cost of the construction work in progress less any advance payments received is added. Any change in the valuation of the projectΒ as determined by DTZΒ is reflected in the estimatedΒ futureΒ profitability of the project to be realised on completion.

An analysis of Fabian's NAV by project isΒ summarised below:

30 September 2008

Fabians' share of Market ValueΒ 

Net debt

Net WorthΒ 

Net Equity Invested **

€m

€m

€m

€m

Cascades

18.3

(9.5)

8.8

2.6

Banu

17.5

(8.7)

8.8

2.9

Baneasa Business Centre

28.2

(19.2)

9.0

3.9

Evo

5.2

(3.7)

1.6

1.3

Sub-total

69.2

(41.0)

28.2

10.7

Lakeview *^

16.4

(7.2)

9.2

5.3

Romana

3.2

0.0

3.2

2.9

Cubic CentreΒ 

12.5

0.0

12.5

12.5

New Town * ^

26.6

(11.8)

14.9

5.8

TimisoaraΒ * ^

5.7

(2.6)

3.1

1.7

OradeaΒ +

2.2

(0.1)

2.1

2.0

Satu Mare +

0.8

(0.1)

0.7

1.2

Net cash

8.0

Other assets / (liabilities) **

2.8

Total

136.6

(62.8)

84.6

42.0

Shares (#)

50,831,130Β 

NAVPS (€)

1.665

MovementΒ in Q3 2008

-0.1%

* represents Fabian Romania Limited's share of the development

** Net equity invested comprises the original acquisition equity less amounts repaid through refinancing

^ includes development WIP less advance payments from customers

+ Net debt represents deferred acquisition costs

Β Β Future DevelopmentΒ Profit of €0.553Β perΒ share

In order to provide transparency toΒ Fabian'sΒ shareholders as to the potential level of such future development profits that may accrue,Β anΒ estimateΒ ofΒ theseΒ future development profitsΒ is given below.Β TheΒ calculations are based onΒ theΒ DTZΒ siteΒ valuationsΒ referred to above,Β at 30Β SeptemberΒ 2008Β which includeΒ estimates of these development profits. These estimates by their very nature are forecasts,Β relying on future events and accordingly are subject to uncertainty. Shareholders may then choose to discount these profits to estimate their net present value in today's terms based on current market conditions.

The forecast development profit figures are stated gross and do not include all costs that may be incurred by Fabian over the course of the projects (in particular transaction fees and any carried interest payable to the investment manager). The implied share of future development profit figures for the New Town,Β Timisoara, Oradea and Satu MareΒ residential schemes and theΒ Cubic Centre,Β Lakeview,Β and Romana office schemes,Β based onΒ Fabian's calculations using DTZ's estimates,Β isΒ givenΒ in the table below:

Project

Β 

Β 

Implied Fabian Share of future Development Profit (€m)Β 

Final Year of development *

Lakeview

3.2

2009

Cubic Centre

4.0

2009

New Town

8.5

2010

Romana

1.4

2010

Timisoara

6.0

2011

Satu Mare

1.5

2011

Oradea

Β 

Β 

3.5

Β 2012

NAV contribution (€m)

28.1

NAVPS constribution (€)

0.553

* Fabian estimates (based on DTZ valuations)

Adding these forecast development profits of €28.1Β million or €0.553Β per share to the NAV produces what the Directors have called the DPNAVΒ of €2.218Β per share. ThisΒ represents aΒ decreaseΒ ofΒ 4.4Β perΒ cent.Β fromΒ 30Β JuneΒ 2008 DPNAVΒ of €2.319.

Β 

Mark HoldsworthΒ and Jan-Olof HanssonΒ 

Fabian Capital Limited

27Β OctoberΒ 2008

The directors of Fabian Romania Limited accept responsibility for the information contained in this announcement. To the best of the knowledge and belief of the directors of the Company (who have taken all reasonable care to ensure that such is the case) the information contained in this announcement is in accordance with the facts and does not omit anything likely to affect the import of such information.

Contacts:Β 

Fabian Capital Limited

Mark Holdsworth

Tel: +44 20 7499 9988

Monument PRΒ - Financial Public Relations to Fabian

TobyΒ Moore

Tel: +44Β 845 355 1178

Deloitte Corporate Finance - Nominated Adviser to Fabian

James Lewis

Tel: +44 20 7936 3000

KBC Peel Hunt - Joint Broker to Fabian

Capel Irwin

Tel: +44 20 7418 8900

Shore Capital Stockbrokers Limited - Joint Broker to Fabian

Dru DanfordΒ 

Tel: +44 20 7408 4090

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
Β 
END
Β 
Β 
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