Honing Q126 forecasts

WPM’s Q126 financial results are scheduled for release on 7 May. To date, production from Vale (pertaining to Salobo, Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay) and from Artemis (pertaining to Blackwater) has been broadly in line with our expectations. However, metals prices have fallen by c 7% since our last note, driven by forced liquidations since the start of the Iran war, which has caused us to reduce our Q126 EPS forecast by a barely material 6.5% to US$1.234/share and our FY26 EPS forecast by 10.3% to US$5.029/share. In this respect, we observe that we are now at the more conservative end of the market range. Note that, if current metals prices prevail into next year, our FY27 EPS forecast rises from that shown below to US$6.46/share.