Member Info for zooter

Todays fall is not the result of any negative news. Imo there are therefore a few possible reasons. Firstly, one of the HOIL major shareholders may be off loading shares, but this is unlikely as news of dividends is likely to be announced before the end of April and the largest trade today was only 44, 365. Secondly, there has been considerable volume in the last couple of weeks and the mms could be acquiring more shares. Todays drop would therefore have hit stop losses of several short term traders. Thirdly, there may be some large buy orders at lower levels and the mms want to fill them, again by taking out stops. The main thing is that the fundamentals are still very strong and forcasted to get stronger, dividends are likely to be announced soon, and HOIL will be in the ftse 250, with effect from 24th March. Demand from larger institutions should therefore increase.

Major Shareholder Lansdowne Partners sold 14.69m shares prior to 31 December 2013, reducing their shareholding to a mere 13.80m shares. This accounts for the drop in sp at the end of last year to c150p. Probably not their best investment decision to date as the sell off was prior to indication of SUSTAINED dividend payments. These are likely to be announced in the full year results towards the end of April, and imo might be in excess of 10p per share, based on estimated net profits. Aberforth Partners acquired 3.03m shares in January and JP Morgan added 2.98m. The most likely reason for the recent sp increase, as new large investors buy in on the anticipation of sustained dividends. Future earnings and dividends should take the sp up to more realistic levels and hopefully 250p should be achievable in the near future.

Hoil did pay a special dividend of £1 per share a few years back, following the disposal of assets in Uganda. That was a one off following the sale. TB is indicating sustained dividend payments following excellent production levels, which will attract large institutions. Hopefully these will produce yields of 5-10%. Considering the future potential HOIL must be a fantastic buying opportunity at these low levels. It is beyond most people why the sp was pushed down to these low levels, but there has been a lot of increased buying at these levels.

UBS came up with a great opening line to its short note on Heritage Oil (LON:HOIL) on Friday morning as it claimed “markets move in mysterious ways”. Quite so. But if your job is to demystify the random walk of share prices, then it’s probably best to make a stab at an explanation. And actually, I’m being a little unfair as analyst Daniel Ekstein and the UBS oil team are at a loss to explain the ‘counter intuitive’ movement of Heritage’s share price since and generally upbeat trading statement last month – as are we all. It revealed that production in Nigeria had hit a record and that its local associate there could benefit from a significant reduction in tax rates. Putting its price target up 20p a share to 220p, and repeating its buy, UBS said: “Visibility on some potential 'quick wins' has added confidence to the near term production outlook.”

Could you please forward that message on to the Market Makers. They appear to be the only ones on the planet who don't agree.

Cheers MuD for the info about the shorters. Watching the sp over the last few weeks has been like watching our beloved team. Full of potential but going backwards. At the end of the day it is the fundamentals that are paramount not the day to day sp, which is determined by buy and sell orders fed into robots. Manipulation is easy if you have the funds and knowhow. The big boys always want bargains and built in profits. Their orders will always be at basement prices. If you look at all Brokers recommendations there is always a vast range. There will usually be a hidden agenda. Would anyone trust a Broker. Although the sp may go down further, this must be a great top up opportunity.

Since the positive Interim Management Statement on 19th November the sp has fallen approximately 37p. As the fall would appear to be unsubstantiated it is imo the result of shorters or the mms. The price at the moment is incredibly cheap but it could still go down further. A great time to top up at these levels especially if you consider the upside next year. Perhaps Manudave has some information on shorters. GL

Two very large trades today at 13.41 and 13.42 of 250,000 each, but only recorded after closing. Both BUYS at 157.25 and 157.30 respectively. Hopefully all can see now why the price is being kept artificially low by the MMs. All part of stock market games, especially as the sp never changed. The imbalance between buys and sells should in theory be reflected in the sp but that is why these were only recorded after the close. We should see soon at what levels the next big orders are. Nothing to worry about for long term investors. GL

The 100,000 trade at 10.04 today did not have any impact on the share price. Recorded as a BUY at 160p. These large orders at lower prices appear to be getting filled slowly but surely.

Yesterdays trade was definately a BUY @ price of 171.95, based on the closing mid price of 170. Also if you check Digital Look today it shows another delayed trade at 16.50 - 219, 237 shares @ 170.95, recorded as a sell. I would question this, in view of the fact it was not recorded by the London Stock Exchange and the close mid price was 166.25. There were however 2 trades of 200, 000 each at 10.04 and 10.24, both at prices of 171.00. One was recorded as unknown and the other as a buy. Having checked the prices at the time of the trades they were imo both buys. Just another example of how the market work. On 24th June a SELL of 800, 000 shares was recorded @ a price of 131.25. The share price went down 4.9p on the day. We discovered two days later that the transaction was actually a BUY, by one of the major share holders Capital Group. As it is all in the name of promoting liquidity, it seems to be working as there were 866, 907 shares traded today. How far it goes down is upto the mms.

Was a good trade but always a bit concerning why it was only recorded after closing. A single trade like that would have had an impact on the sp, which it did not. Another few BUYS today of 50, 000 each and another two of 30, 000, and yet the sp is knocked a little more. Difficult in real time to determine the reason, but my take is that the mm's have larger orders at lower prices which they are trying to fill. Might see the sp drifting south for a while. Next news will only be in the new year, but should be a few brokers recommendations in the meantime, which may have a short term impact. Still expect news next year to be positive, with regards to production and revenue, so looking now at a medium term investment. GLA

Looks good so far even with very little volume. Interim Management Statement was supposed to be out by the end of today but may have been delayed. Just been checking recent information regarding Major Shareholders, if anyone is interested. Fideuram Asset Management (Ireland) Ltd acquired an additional 2,987,310 shares in October, which probably accounts for the sp increase. They also acquired over 1.3m shares in September. Always good to know when some of the big institutions are buying.

The last trade at 16.35 is a "UT" an uncrossing trade that can generally be ignored. It matches the best bids and best offers. When all crossed volume has been matched, then an Uncrossing Trade Price can be determined. The two largest trades today were 100,000 each at 08.34 and were recorded as a Buy and a Sell. The buy and sell information is however not very reliable and does not always give a true picture of actual trades. The only factual information is the total share volume at the end of the day but sometimes this does not include after hours trades.

The price drop is frustrating and illogical but not altogether surprising. The Mms have been walking down the price over the last 2 to 3 weeks for no obvious reason and despite very low volumes. The recent drop would appear to be hitting some stop losses and frustrating some traders. There may be some large orders at lower prices, but who knows the true agenda. Everybody and their dogs know that the sp is currently undervalued but when will the market reflect this is another question. Results should be out this week, so a good time to top up at these low levels.

Half year results due soon. Some big speculation so perhaps we can anticipate some promising figures. If in line with expectations or better we should see a decent rise in sp. Still undervalued if the forcasts are correct.

Looks like a simple market maker tree shake. Big drops in two days, on very little volumes. Today there were 234, 525 SELLS and 188, 760 BUYS but yet the price dropped more than 10%. Most likely they have orders from one or more larger investors who wish to buy at lower levels. They may hit some stop losses and panic some more into selling. The drop has been triggered by the downgrade by Numis Securities and as usual the mms have capitalised on this and created the fall. From the very low volumes traded, should be nothing to worry about for long term investors but could still move lower.

Morning all. The duplication appears to be correct. I checked through the Investigate website and TB acquired the additional 500,000 shares in April 2011 at a price of 48p (Director/Shareholding). This ties in with the difference between the number of share owned by TB and AE. Makes more sense that there are, as you say, approx 100m shares out there to trade and not 20m. Looks like we will all have to sit back and wait now until the OML figures come out next year, unless they have some other unexpected announcement before that.

I believe the 84.5m shares owned by Albion Energy and the 85m shares owned by TB are seperate and between them they own approximately two thirds of the company. As you say 3 other investors own about 58m and the other 3 directors just over 3m shares. Unless my mathematics is worse than l thought, this equates to just over 230m shares. I agree with you that he is not really linked to the square mile but l am sure he is very well connected and a shrewd business man. Time will tell, but the sp does appear to be well under valued. GL

The sp is trading well below its true value but l don't believe its anything to worry about. The market has a tendancy to make the small investors question what they are doing and panic when they don't need to. Don't forget that a few months ago the share price was down to 115p and most of us were worried about our investments and questioning whether we had invested in another dud company. We will never know the true reason why the sp reached such unrealistic lows but the shrewd investors would have been buying. Likewise now the sp appears to be well below what it should be but all we need to do is wait. The company started buying its own shares back from April 2011 as it believed the shares were undervalued. They bought back almost 35,000,000 shares which are held in Treasury at varying prices starting from 250p. Although you mention that the square mile are reluctant to invest, over 230 million shares are already held by four large investors and the directors, and they have had these holdings for several years now. There has been no indication that any of them are reducing their holdings. The future potential is immense, especially since the aquisition in Nigeria and becoming an oil producer. From an investors point of view there appears to be little downside but a considerable upside The future sp is reliant mainly on Mr Goodluck getting his act together in Nigeria, and if he does the only way is UP. So Good Luck Goodluck, we are all behind you.

No good news so far. Slightly more buyers than sellers and very little volume. Not clear why the share price still going down. MM's seem to want to keep the price down for some reason.