The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Eventual outcome very well known in advance.
I wonder who were those holders ending up with any shares of no value and even what was the reason for buying these last days..
Re: "...Optimistic for a favourable outcome in the coming weeks and months…good luck to all holding!..."
Lol, Despite constant reminders by BoD (as quoted below) of impending 100% shareholders wipeout in each RNS.
AMGO is just following NSF' footsteps.
Whoever buys here will need all the luck in a world to get out of this without scars later on..
---------- Market Update --------
The Board recognises the very low likelihood of a successful conclusion to any discussions arising because of this Agreement but is pursuing the Agreement in line with its duties under the Companies Act to consider the interests of all stakeholders, including creditors, shareholders and employees. Under the Fallback Solution of Amigo's Scheme of Arrangement (the orderly wind down of the Amigo Loans Ltd business), there is no expected residual value for shareholders.
Whether "cracking a quid" event happens - depends on factual results later today, it might go backward too.
Everyone' opinion is merely a guesswork at best or worse - having an agenda of affecting opinion (for their own benefit).
Catching a falling knife is quite common outcome for those who try to time the market,
it's a game with average negative outcome anyway.
GL.
PCF' 2022FY results shown further equity drain with 14m loss.
Assetmatch last auction couldn't match any trades only mentioning some bets at 0.75p (pointing to yet another sp decline)
Re: ...maybe opens up for BUR's asset recovery people...
Dream on, IMF transactions are untouchable.
Re: @Emerald51 ...Is there any value at all in the actual BRAND...
There's no sufficient assets to cover other liabilities, there are creditors other than current shareholders, e.g. employees, suppliers, lenders, taxation, etc.
Any value CINE still has - belongs to them (brands, goodwill, equipment, cash balances, debitors/invoices to receive payments on, etc.) and not to shareholders,
as described in multiple RNS's - there's no whatsoever excess left belonging to existing shareholders/equity owners, not a chance.
It's "going to the moon" story being sold to naive and inexperienced. same old same old..
Sp history:
Aug-2017: 700p+
Aug-2018: 300p+
Aug-2019: 240p+
Aug-2020: 60p+
Aug-2021: 60p+
Aug-2022: 20p+
Feb-2023: 5p+
Apr-2023: 1p+
today: 0.3p+
Aug-2023: null/wipeout
It might help NIM but it also helps delinquencies and defaults because suddenly monthly payments are becoming unbearable especially considering recessionary environment and consequently lower income if not unemployment (as well as higher slice of income allocated to necessities because of inflation).
It's obvious that sp is sometimes diving well below your range' lower bound of 25p (by at least 20%) over last year, therefore these boundaries are rather wishful thinking (and it might get worse after release of next results).
And then just peacefully wait until (a) maturity of gov debt then receive money (t-3 days) and on (b) day of maturity of bur issue ISIN: XS1391063424 transfer these money to close principal/face value..
Perhaps I understand this redemption in a wrong way but this "Notice of Early Redemption of Bonds due 2024" has strange conditions:
....being the higher of (i) 100 per cent. of the principal amount of the Bonds and (ii) the principal amount of the Bonds multiplied by the price, as reported to the Issuer and the Trustee by the Financial Adviser, at which the Gross Redemption Yield on the Bonds on the Make-Whole Reference Date (being 7 July 2023) is equal to the Gross Redemption Yield (determined by reference to the middle market price) at 11.00 a.m. (London time) on the Make-Whole Reference Date of the Reference Bond (the 2.75 per cent. Treasury Stock due 2024), plus 1.00 per cent., all as determined by the Financial Adviser....
To me it seems that clause (i) prevails, therefore it's economically irrational redemption since instead of paying money now you can just put these money into relevant gov debt instruments (in appropriate currency).
Topofthecharts
debt more than tripled, interest rate increased materially,
there's equity loss of 75% since 2019.
it will take at least 2-3 years before (and if) they somehow can hit $3b net profits (+ some growth %) even theoretically
(and at least a year or two still suffering net loss, third year probably slightly above break-even).
required return these days given bank rate and risk premium is above 15% (for NPV discounting purposes).
This is not so much about shorting (although this category may benefit the situation) but simply fundamentals.
Yet for some strange reasons this is already priced today like there's 100% success rate and no risks.
@lti: ...Businesses are taxed ALREADY on profits...
Moreover in at currently inflationary environment it's nominal gain
(or income for individuals or profits for businesses) what's being taxed, not a real one,
therefore more taxes collected despite the fact what people actually getting poorer.
so gov always wins no matter how disruptive politics is.
Empirically while base interest rates are in single digit range - one percentage point increase in risk-free rate can drop cashflow (and sp) valuations by 20%-40% (obviously adjusting for slightly increased risks premiums and profit growth percentages), banking sector in these bank rate range has some advantage (via NIM) therefore drops are normally lower.
Once central bank rate gets into ..teens range - NPV base cashflow valuation drop is lower but there's worse impact on risk component of discount factor due to defaults/impairments (effect on economy) and slowdown of profit growth element.
The fact it's still not slipping below 41p is rather quite good result..
Nothing new really, all as expected, the question is why is it even currently trading, main quotes:
> Given the level of existing debt that is expected to be released under the Plan, the Proposed Restructuring does not provide for any recovery for holders of Cineworld's existing equity interests.
> Any administration order would not affect the status or rights of any of the Group's employees.
> Cineworld further confirms that the Listing and the Admission to Trading are expected to be cancelled at 8.00 a.m. on the business day following the actual appointment of administrators in respect of Cineworld Group plc.
Obviously apart of obvious bit: inventory buildup (multiples of unsold stock vs 2021 and 2022) and rapidly depleting cash position vs debt accumulation? (e.g. acid test results deterioration because of current assets vs current liabilities balance).