Desmond45, 'May as well jump ship and make a quick buck in Q3 during WN EWT where the gas is nailed on than waiting for ANGS to attempt saltfleetby works in may 2020'. The gas at WN is far from nailed on yet and that fact was mentioned in the quote I just posted from the RNS 27.06.2019.
The bargain buy is Angus now, not UJO.
Saltfleetby has minimum 10BCF to optimistic 18BCF that are proven reserves and they will generate cash for Angus when the gas is reconnected to the grid. Angus is now 1/6th the market cap. of UJO. UJO and partners need to drill many more wells as the money from this one well may only generate a couple of hundred boed for UJO. Not a lot for a £32 million market cap.
Desmond45, '189bcf + potential oil/condensate at WN' is over a massive licence area PEDL 183 which UJO has a small 16.65% interest in. These are contingent, not proven reserves.
"We believe that speculating on the nature and size of a commercial development is premature at this stage, but early signs are encouraging. Firstly, the West Newton A-2 well must be completed and tested to gauge the productive potential for oil or gas from the Kirkham Abbey reservoir.
"Secondly, following the testing of the West Newton A-2 well, additional drilling at a new site (West Newton B) will be undertaken to establish the areal extent and continuity of the reservoir formation."
Originally PEDL 05, Saltfleetby had 114 BCF
Any suspicions of a suspension of trading may send the shorters panicking to close. If it happens on Monday at 7am, all will be locked in until the terms have been agreed.
Shareholders will always end up the worst off in these situations as they are back of the queue. Still, England probably winning the World Cup cricket final is something today is something to cheer up about. Tune in on Channel4.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEYFsqR0bIk
Yes, holding these for the long term is very risky as they could go private and shareholders offered just 1p a share like Flybe. There is still scope for a few profitable trades before then, hopefully. 5p to 7p would be nice.
If the bondholders want a better deal, it will be for their benefit, not the equity shareholders. It should bounce at some point just like Flybe and Debenhams did, Flybe quite a few times.
Those that bought in at 5p on Friday, might see a bounce tomorrow or the shares may go down more. Watching with interest.
'Thomas Cook's £750 million rescue deal with Chinese group Fosun is hanging in the balance after bondholders hired heavyweight advisers to face off with the company.
Sources said bondholders had appointed advisers from US investment bank Houlihan Lokey, lawyers from Milbank and set up a committee ahead of crunch negotiations with the 178-year-old travel firm and its lending banks.'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-7244451/Thomas-Cook-rescue-deal-knife-edge-bondholders-hire-advisers-face-off.html
I haven't got any shares, I did buy at 10p and sold at 17p. Now wondering if it is worth a trade again. Very risky now but those shorts do have to close sooner or later.
Can somebody explain how after Debenhams are no longer trading on the stock market, why there are still 9.5% still short, are those shorts trapped and the hedge funds locked out?
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B126KH97/
TCG Plc would become Thomas Cook Ltd. No shares on the stock market, just like Debenhams now. I don't like it any more. They are protecting the company's employees, suppliers, pensions but at the expense of shareholders. Sounds more like Debenhams now.
Tour Operator to go private and Airline a subsidiary of TCG PLC with option to go private also. If that happens, what is left for the PLC? This interview really throws some doubt on the Thomas Cook name continuing and none of this was in the RNS.
The concerning part of that video is that they say that Fosun would take the tour operator private. Shareholders would then have to take whatever Fosun offered for the shares as they would already have control.
They look happy don't they. I expect Fosun will wipe the smiles of their faces when they take control of the Tour Operator and replace the BOD with Chinese nationals.
Sten said single digit share price dilution (1p to 9p). Well, it's already at 5p
2 mins, 50 secs in
https://vimeo.com/347634615/c40e52777e
Recent comment from Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-12/thomas-cook-rescue-leaves-investors-in-the-cold
After the recapitalisation, the company has to be worth more than £82.6 million at present, doesn't it?
Let's say £300 million, then all depends on how many extra shares will be added to make the market cap. to be £300 million.
So, for £300 million, 6 billion shares at 5p, 3 billion shares at 10p, 12 billion shares at 2.5p.
Just my thoughts and probably of no consequence, but after the dilution the company has to be valued accordingly with debt significantly reduced and cash injection - not valued as if about to go bust.
'Under the proposal, the Group is targeting an injection of £750 million of new money which would provide sufficient liquidity to trade over the Winter 2019/20 season and the financial flexibility to invest in the business for the future. At completion, the new money would comprise a capital injection and new financing facilities. '
This money is coming from Fosun AND Thomas Cook's core lending banks, not just Fosun.
'The recapitalisation proposal will require a reorganisation of the ownership of the Tour Operator and Airline businesses which is expected to result in Fosun owning a significant controlling stake in the Group Tour Operator and a significant minority interest in the Group Airline.'
Fosun would have majority ownership (over 50%) of the Tour Operator and ?% of the airline.
'The proposal envisages that a significant amount of the Group's external bank and bond debt will be converted into equity'
How much of the debt is a 'significant amount'?
'Existing shareholders will be significantly diluted as part of the recapitalisation. However, shareholders may be given the opportunity to participate in the recapitalisation by way of investment alongside Fosun and converting financial creditors on terms to be agreed.'
Here we have a carrot being dangled for exisiting shareholders MAY be allowed to buy more shares on the same terms as Fosun.
£750 million injection of cash + a significan % of debt for equity swap. After all that, how much will TCG be valued at considering most of the debt will be gone and cash to provide 'sufficient liquidity to trade over the Winter 2019/20 season and the financial flexibility to invest in the business for the future'? That is the question, what would be a realistic new market cap. for TCG then?
'The rate of 1,100 bbl/d produced through an 1/4 inch choke significantly exceeded the Company's target rate of 325 bbl/d,' says that after all the expert's predictions, this was either well underestimated for the entire licence area, or they just got extremely lucky, like Horse Hill.