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Stop pondering … do what I did … Buy some more :):)
No, this is a joke, do what you like, I bought more but my risk taking is high, and Eve is now risky. Each to their own.
HITS, to add to the therms debate, the number of therms in the gas depends on gas quality … and that is why NGG measures Calorific Value along with Energy at point of entry - see
https://mip-prd-web.azurewebsites.net/DataItemViewer/ViewReportDataItem
HITS, Are you saying that Angus has been using the wrong calculations?
Here, https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
Page 49, devide therms with MMSCFD and see what you get.
I don’t think is wrong. If you think that is wrong, then you better inform Angus.
WG, the references you are sighting are from June 2021 when the orders were being placed.
It appears that some time after that the compressor capacities (unless Angus got it wrong in their response to IQ, which I don’t think so) were changed to 10 MMSCFD - see IQ’s on website. Extract here
“Hi, can the existing compressors be upgraded to produce more gas if needed. Thankyou. Asked on 1 July 2022
We left space for a third compressor in order to handle any potential pressure drop in the two existing wells. If the sidetrack pressure keeps the average across the three high, then we could use the third compressor to increase flow rates. All of the units were sized around 10mmscfd (the target production after side-track) but were build with a degree of redundancy and subject to risk assessment we could increase flow beyond that amount. That assessment will be easier to do once we have steady flow”
… And this is what I would expect for the design - 100% redundancy.
We can pump more than 10 MMSCFD with one compressor.
WG, the compressors are all designed for 10 MMSCFD + margin above (normally 10/20%, I don’t know what Angus used but GL confirmed that they can go above 10)
They are all designed for 10 MMSCFD design case and that is why is only one installed. We are already flowing above 5 MMSCFD (5.38 as of two days ago)
Wildtiger, I love money, that is why I invest/trade.
May I ask if you own EVE shares? You don’t have to answer.
Yesterday, as per the TR-1, AR bought 1,014,868 shares and paid a healthy sum of £4,068.
Obviously he believes in the survival of EVE and he is expecting a return.
Today I followed him in adding some more.
Kept my promise to add more if AR buys more. Bought a few more this morning.
AR added very substantial amounts - 0.5%
What does he know that Wyn doesn’t?
Herbert, very well said. Let’s hope today’s SP dip was the last one and is crawling back up from here.
Serif, you could be right. Today’s volume at 19.6 mil … and is not 10AM yet … is quite significant. Sellers must be dying out now as a move back up. Fingers crossed.
Herbert, I agree with you. Is just damn frustrating watching the SP falling this low when by all norms it should have been going up. The question is why is the SP not following the norms and go up (some were predicting 4.5p on spud announcement)?
DRB/HITS,
For therms per MMSCFD refer to the CPR report, Page 49 - values used by Angus and Hedge (Mercuria), simply divide therms by MMSCFD for each month. Else, what will you be using? American?
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
5.5 MMSCFD satisfies full hedge commitments from now onwards.
Yes, there is the deferred July/August hedged amounts. But these are deferred to Q1/Q2 next year.
The deferred amount equals to an additional 34.49 MMSCFD per month (103.47/3). This takes the hedge amount for Q1/Q2 next year to 195.45 MMSCFD per month.
This is still covered by the 5.5 MMSCFD from B2&A4 wells and still make some money, except except for Q2 where the hedged price drops to 37.55p and more or less breaks even Do the calcs.
Yes, 5.5 MMSCFD brings in revenue for Angus, quite a bit for Q4 this year, not so much in Q1/Q2 next year, but quite a bit from there onwards.
Any additional flow revenues from sidetrack is all to Angus. Even 2 MMSCFD is £2 mil per month at 300p, but ofcourse is going to be more than 2 MMSCFD.
Gold mine.
We are debating who is selling — but does it really matter?
The fact is the SP is dropping when it should have been going up. Would the SP be dropping if sentiment was good? Ofcourse not, there would have been buyers to absorb the sales and drive the SP up.
IMO, it does not matter who is selling. The fact is the SP is dropping due to lack of sentiment - why is this? Why is sentiment so poor?
The sentiment here has been destroyed. The 2.50p bid is just blown away. Bid now 2.40p.
I blame SO’s poor PR qualities for this. Also, the last “prudent” £1 mil loan arrangement which sent a very bad signal to the markets - £1 mil should have been already available from Wressle receipts. Where is all that money gone?
I admit that big guys like BGF will sometimes change strategy and sell at a huge loss. I witness this myself with MPL, L&G invested £millions over the years and then with the SP substantially diminished, after they participated in a placing yet again, they sold at gigantic loss decimating the SP. I doubt it if they even got 10% of their money back. Yes. Institutions selling at a loss can happen. Their TR-1 filing though has been timely.
To come back to EOG. We have about 960 million shares and 1% is 9.6 million.
So warrants exercised will not come close to needing a TR-1 if they are less than 9.6 mil (1%).
Last BGF filing indicated their holding as of 2 September, 57 million left. So they need to sell at least 9.6 million shares to need to file again. Using IG’s chart I calculated that since 5 Sept, we traded 156 million shares, many times more than the 9.6 million needed for a filing. We have seen no TR-1 in almost 3 weeks. Bare in mind that in their last filing they crossed the threshold on the 2 Sep (Fri) and filed on the 5 SEp (Mon).
I believe that in all likelihood people selling now are mainly PI’s who got their shares at the last placing. They see the SP dropping and sell to lock in profits. IMO.
If it was BGF selling then we would have had a TR-1 … we didn’t.
In my opinion sellers now are PIs who got their shares at the 1.80p placing, they saw BGF selling above 3p, they then saw the SP falling below 3p and failing to go up … they sell to lock in some profit as they say their profit shrinking.
SP dropping attracts further sells.
DRB, is a lot better than than 700k per month.
Oct22 to Jun23 are the most heavily hedged months (1.75 mil therms).
During these heavily hedged months, just the flow from the two wells (B2&A4) stabilising at 5.5 MMSCFD will pay the hedge and give Angus in excess of £1.2 mil in a month at 300p/therm.
Even if the sidetrack fails to achieve its target of 5 MMSCFD and achieves only 2 MMSCFD say, then this is another £2mil for Angus at 300p/therm. Ofcourse 5 MMSCFD is another £5 mil at 300p/therm.
This is a revenue of £3 to £6 mil + per month during hedge …. This is BIG.
Herbert, I don’t take offence, my calcs below are 100% correct :)
You see, what people forget is the fact that Angus gets a cut out of the hedged flow. For example, the October hedge is set at 52.05p. So, in simple terms, if it is 300p per therm, the hedge gets 247.95 and Angus gets 52.05p per therm.
Ofcourse, there is the hedged volume, to explain this, let’s keep it simple and make the hedged volume 100 MMSCFD per month, 1.08 mil therms, using 10,800 therms per MMSCFD as used by Angus in their calculation. Let’s also say the hedge is set at 50p, as a hypothetical case to explain what is happening here in simple terms.
In this example, for Angus to meet hedge requirement for the month (i.e. 100 MMSCFD) only needs to produce 0.9 mil therms or 83.333 MMSCFD in a month to break even.
If Angus meets the hedged volume in a month, then Angus pays the hedge and takes a cut. In this example, if Angus produced exactly 100 MMSCFD (1.08 mil therms) then
The Hedge gets 1.08 x (£3-£0.5) mil = £2.7 mil
Angus gets 1.08 x £0.5 mil = £0.54 mil
The essence of it is we can produce less than the hedge (up to a certain amount, in the above hypothetical example down to 83.333 MMSCFD and make a profit (at 83.333 is break even, below is a loss) - Not many realise this.
When Angus produces exactly the same amount as the hedge amount, Angus definitely (100%) makes a profit.
When the hedge amount is exceeded the profits multiply … Happy Days.