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https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-comment-on-saa-snws-and-acrl/
https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-comment-on-saa-snws-and-acrl/
Agreed - the future looks bright for SAA, especially judging by recent results.
The question that those who are prepared to hold for the longer term have to ask themselves is: is the share price going to appreciate more significantly in the months and years ahead with VM or with the current board?
However the proposed merger plays out, the SAA share price should continue appreciating from here.
As is frequently the way with negotiations, an improved offer is likely in the days ahead. The initial commitment of £24 million at a price of 200p shows the level VM is prepared to deal at.
The move has likely been months in the planning. VM has been on the board since March last year and will have spoken to the largest shareholders to gauge their opinion on her proposal. If she didn't have their approval then she wouldn't have bought nearly 10% of the company at 200p. So even if the SAA directors aren't keen, it's likely that the largest shareholders are.
Whether or not it's a good deal for SAA shareholders will depend on their time horizon and belief in VM and her team's capabilities. Those with a short time horizon might feel frustrated that ADVT isn't bidding 250p and be disappointed with the initial proposed merger terms. But those prepared to take a longer term view and who have done some research into VM's history might entertain the possibility of much stronger growth via optimisation and acquisition over time. VM has certainly shown herself more than capable of doing this in the past having generated 10 baggers with Computer Software Group and Advanced Computer Software.
Worth checking out Vin Murria's history.
She generated significant value for her last 2 LSE ventures - both did a 10x. She plans to employ the same strategy here.
Hindy86 - yes, currently holding both and keen to see how it plays out.
VM clearly sees value and plenty of upside from £2 at SAA. Sure it’s above the current price, but she’ll be buying at that level because she sees it going significantly higher from there and presumably can’t easily get hold of a 9.8% stake at a lower price.
Clearly there is now speculation as to the possibility of a bid from ADVT. It’s understandable that they’re interested given the momentum at SAA with trading ahead statements in both the Nov and Dec updates. Chartwise it`s looking positive as well with the price hitting a new yearly high on massive volume after a long consolidation.
Short term volatility to be expected here, but with the company firing on all cylinders and Vin Murria prepared to buy a 10% stake above the market price, things are certainly looking rosy.
“AdvancedAdvt – which is run by entrepreneur Vin Murria – said buying 12m shares was ‘a good investment opportunity’.
It will fuel speculation that Murria, 60, is looking to buy M&C Saatchi as it recovers from an accounting scandal in 2019.”
“Murria is now overseeing a 22.3 per cent stake in the group worth £51million.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-10372969/Tech-mogul-Vin-Murria-snaps-9-8-stake-M-C-Saatchi-24m.html
ADVT has snapped up 9.82% of SAA at 200p.
Vin Murria knows her onions.
https://investegate.co.uk/advancedadvt-limited--advt-/rns/acquisition-of-shareholding-in-m-c-saatchi-plc/202201050947285080X/
The most recent results statement certainly sounded promising with regards a potential deal:
“as we head towards 2022, we have a robust and growing pipeline of what we believe are businesses that closely match our target characteristics.”
Interesting to note that the CRUX UK Special Situations Fund has recently been buying at the current level. The fund manager Richard Penny has done well with his fund ranked 4th out of 239 over 12 months. He bought into KIST at IPO at 100p (now 412p) and reckons that ADVT presents a similar opportunity to invest in proven management with a track record of success and skin in the game.
Vin Murria has invested £17.5 million of her own cash at 100p, so she is heavily aligned with shareholders and will be working hard to get the right deal. The downside is limited since the company is awash with cash (97p) at the last results. The potential upside on the other hand is significant with VM having previously driven two 10-baggers in the quoted software space.
Malcy - “my riposte to that is that AA does not have a reputation for overpaying in making many acquisitions in the past and I’m not expecting that to change now. Whatever the gas price if the deal economics are right I would expect it to be good for shareholders”
“EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Dutch TTF nat gas benchmark jumped to a settlement all-time high of almost €147 per MWh. Perhaps even worse for consumers is the fact January 2023 contract jumped >€90 per MWh today. The market is saying that next winter will be a repetion of this winter”
https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1472986014985633795?s=21
Calcs on Twitter certainly highlight the massive daily profits at the current price:
https://twitter.com/sierra117_jon/status/1471517165152964616?s=21
Now at 123
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VnEnHFFj
Looking forward to the next acquisition. Could certainly be a catalyst for a significant move higher.
"To find something that is significantly below North Sea averages, there are things out there. And we've looked at a couple of things, and we still continue to look. I think we're involved in about three negotiations right now on other assets." - 11:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNfZg4m6HBM
“Following the discounted cash flow method, we obtain a valuation of 607p. Using the EBITDA multiple, the valuation would be 882p.”
https://moram.eu/kistos/