Member Info for wwguk

Gina's $50m draw-down will signal the completion of the stage 2 deal, that will make all the funding in escrow (the initial $500m bond raising and $400m New CB) and the funding in the RCF overdraft facility become available.

From the SM website, we can see that at 16 July 2019, unexercised share options for TS are as follows:

Mr Thomas Staley,
options: 1,552,497
vesting: Vested
Exercise price (pence): 29.0
EXPIRY DATE: 20-Jan-25

Q1: Does this mean that TS can buy 1,552,497 shares with a price 29p per share at any time before 20-Jan-25 when the share price is above 29p?

Based on the RNS on 28 June 2019, Thomas Staley has also got 841,195 shares on JOE Award and 5,535,135 shares as option for nil cost.

Q2 and Q3: The 1,552,497 unexercised share option at a cost and the 841,195 plus 5,535,135 option at nil cost seem to be separated ones, are they? Is it possible for them to get additional options (under different conditions) at every year's AGM?

Thomas Staley currently has 1,187,139 shares, only very small part of which were purchased using his own money.
This seems to be true for most directors. The only person did so is the board chair. It would be great if CF, TS, and many other directors would have brought or will buy more shares using their own money.
The large amount of nil cost options may explain why the directors rarely purchase the company shares from the market. Q4: Are such option practices (i.e., small portion option at an discounted cost (subject to share price performance) and much larger portion at nil cost (subject to other performance measures)) normal for companies in the development stage?

taufour: "Hi. Just to add some context, that trade is labelled NPFT which stands for "Non Price Forming Transaction". Whatever that means."

Non-price forming transactions flag: Transactions where the exchange of financial instruments is determined by factors other than the current market valuation of the financial instrument as listed under Article 13.
https://mifidiidictionary.citihub.com/flags/

Although on the Minute and Hour charts, you cannot see this price had ever happened, the Shooting Star candlestick formation did appear on the Day chart, which is viewed as a bearish reversal candlestick pattern that typically occurs at the top of uptrends (i.e., the same pattern appeared when Capital stopped selling just a few days before the 30 April announcement). Maybe, this spark came a bit too early on some less substantial rumor relating to the bond selling process/progress ; However, if the rumor is getting real indicating substantial progress in next week/weeks, a real pop over 21p may happen in normal transactions.

In short, in shaft sinking, the permanent winders may be used for loading the bucket for people/equipment/rock pieces; while the temporary ones for SBR, i.e., opposite to Myo's initial guess?

Thanks, Myo, for the info.
Still not so sure how these two are used for; but also lazy to the documents.
Just making an intuitively guess (Myo, if wrong, please correct it):
The permanent winder of the service shaft is used to hoist the bucket for workers and equipment; while the one at production shaft is for loading polyhalite. The loads of the buckets are must be much lighter than the SBR.
However, unlike the fast moving speed of the bucket for hoisting polyhalite, the SBR moves very slowly through a rope. The rope might not be winded on the temporary winder directly; the load of the SBR could be be leveraged using some mechanical devices (e.g. pulleys), Therefore, the temporary winder does not have to be as heavy duty and powerful as the permanent one.

GK, thanks, it worked.
Scotman, the stage 2 launch target was me (i.e., the "before the end of April" target was met on the last day).
Hope these new "prior to end of Sep" target for the bonds and the "completed / closed by end Sep target for the RCF (and actually the closing of the whole stage 2) will be achieved well before (or at least a few days before) the end of the month.

GK, which call is it?

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Where to do the registration?

Myo, thanks for noticing the updated videos, and your detailed explanations on the videos.

Yes, All good.....all very good....

Based on the article on proactiveinvestors, the steps and their corresponding timeline for launching the SM bonds might be
1) finalising the bond offering document (July)
2) completion of the revolving credit facility paperwork (July)
3) the receipt of a public rating from the rating agencies (July)
4) roadshow – where they promote the bond to institutional investors (ahead of the August holidays)
5) complete the issuance with the bond purchasers/II investors (before the end of September).
So, this will more likely be done in August or September. I.e., it is unlikely to be completed in July, the slight drop in SP may be due to the disappointment on an early bond issuance expectation.

It seems to me that the restriction on the type(s) of the $500m senior debt that has to be raised to unlock the $2.5b RCF has been widened: from previous h.y.bonds or equity like funding to now another acceptable debt financing.
Although it seems that SM has started its preparation of the raising in the form of h.y.bonds, given the widening of the restriction, SM may switch to raise the Initial $500m in other debt forms acceptable by JPM. Are bank loans from those that had already committed (as we knew upto $1.5b in the very initial stage 2 plan) acceptable?
If yes, if such debt also acceptable for the subsequent tranches (that are used to return the draw down from the RCF )?

Myo, from the presentation, we can see that unlike the production shaft that has only a permanent winder, the service shaft has a permanent winder house and a temporary winder house. Both the winder houses are under construction. Given that the installation of the permanent winder has already commenced (well before the temporary winder), why SM still needs the temporary winder for the service shaft?

mail12: "yes two 4.31/ 4.33 pm"

What do these two RNS mean?
Is it correct that
- Some of the new CB has already converted (i.e., those Sirius Minerals Plc 2027 Convertible Bond)?
- while the old CB left till this year are still left unconverted?

dadean and JRC1000, you are right. I have not tried to be accurate to compute the sp based on a hypothetical £1b profit.
I simply focused on the topic hearding: (near, or within next 5 year) Future possible SP. Given both CF and Davis has recently talked about getting into FTSE100 (possibly within next 5 years), I give my projection simply on the MC needed to get into FTSE100. Given the share count doubled twice in stage 1 and 2, the share price expectation, of course, went down, based on the same MC projection, a £2 per share price projection made before stage 1 would become 50p after stage 2, which is still very good, but not as speculative as before.

SheepOfWallSt: "...if Sirius is making a billion in profit when it eventually happens that should be roughly the share Price valuation? ..."

One billion in profit might be achieved in 2025 after SM reaching the 10mtpa production capability in 2024. SM should be in FTSE100, or top 50 in FTSE100.
There was a recent article that mentioned the further SP. It says that a 10 bagger becomes less likely; while a 3 to 4 baggers might be more likely. If it is a four bagger of the current price, the SP would be 60p.

The total share count, including the convertibles into shares at their conversion price, would be a bit more than 10 billion.
When SM get into FTSE100 (with £4b MC), its share price would be around £0.4; When SM get into the top 50 of FTSE100 (with a £8b MC), it share price could be 80p. One pound per share party looks very remote. Therefore, it is more practice to try to lower your average and get more shares if you want to reach a specific goal: e.g., if you want £1m worth of sxx shares, you need to get around 2m shares with an average price below 25p; rather than hold 0.5m shares and hope the SP will rise to £2. The above speculation is based on the assumption that the stage 2 will be successfully closed, the mine will be built and the produced Poly4 will be sold, which all look very promising.

AlanG, despite your high ranking on the http://pumpedordumped.com/rampchecker/rampcheckbytidm.php?search=sxx
list, unlike quite many here who placed a very big bet on SM, you seems to be a very conservative investor: with a sizable investment in properties, and kept a small sxx investment (relative to your overall investment) for a very long time, without adding sxx significantly even at the current sp price. Many here must have thought you have also made a big bet on sxx.

Due to the switch from AMC to DMC and the use SBR (to dig the deep shafts), SM gets the job on the shafts six months ahead to reach the first polyhalite.

Now, Strabag has announced that they have secured 1 billion Euro of funding from SM for the whole MTS.
They will get "Start of construction for Drivers 2 + 3 in late June 2019". I.e., almost immediately from Now!
This bring the job on Drivers 2 + 3 around Six Months ahead of schedule, as these were not on the 2019 milestone as seen on the SM recent presentation at 2019 AGM, and such job was initially planned to be started in 2020.

This is only made possible, due to the switch from Bank loan tranches that are specific to project tasks to market oriented funding that SM can use for whatever tasks flexibly. SM must have made new payment to Strabag recently and Strabag is confidence that stage 2 will be a success to secure all the needed funding for the MTS.

Cranleigh: "A forecast share price somewhere between 4p and 46p, ..... And also totally baseless and useless.

Cranleigh, Alistair Strang's analysis has his basis: the 13p is at the long term uptrend line since 2010; if it breaks, the uptrend is broken. The 4p scenario is based on a reversed head-and-shoulder pattern, once the 13p support line is broken, the effect of a reversed head-and-shoulder pattern would become more likely to happen. He has a computational method that incorporates his extensive knowledge on computer trading algorithms to help him analyse the chart patterns/trends.

See the quotation in his article:
"Our own thinking is of reversal coming to 13p anytime soon, along with a bounce at such a point. The red uptrend dates back to 2010 and should prove perfectly capable for traders to pile in, with the belief such a long-term uptrend must provoke a rebound. ... And before you know it, you've got a classic head and shoulders formation, one which points at reversal to 4p eventually."

The 13p is just slightly below the 15p placement price at which big IIs brought a large number of SM shares. 15p is considered as a good price (i.e., a good bargain) by big IIs. It is lower than the cost per share (i.e., raised money per share). Based on all the info we currently get, the odds of funding success seems much higher than that of the failure.
When potential buyers know that long term uptrend line at currently at 13p has very strong support, a price near 13p would attract many such buyers, as this gives them a good bargain better than what IIs got at the placement. The 13p line will only be broken when the Senior Debt Event (as indicated by (Initial bond issuance+ a few required TorP contract revision+Gina £50m confirmed) ) would not happen by the deadline (the end of October), or any one of the three mentioned in above () would fail before the deadline. This is the very uncertainty that has kept the SP low at the moment.

Although if the 13p could not be upheld the consequence is very bad, Alistair Strang also said in the article that "At present, any rebound exceeding 22p should bring a visit to an initial 25.5p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 35p in the future. In fact, we can even compute a best case scenario at 46p, a point where we'd again stir the tea leaves."

I.e., if the 13p level is up held, then the up side is very significant!

LawrenceH: why holding up above 13p is important?

Alistair Strang, an expert on auto-trading algorithms and on stock chart analysis (from Trends and Targets) on the 30th of May 2019 has explained this.

He provided a 13p target when the SM share price should rebound, however, if stock price closes below this level, then it could drop to 4p (this technical and algorithm analysis seem to correlate to the stage 2 funding success, possibly the first critical test on the Initial h.y.bond tranche, which indicates whether stage 2 can be successfully closed or not):

see https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/when-sirius-minerals-shares-should-rebound-ii508318

I had posted this on the 17th June.

gdshaw: "Not saying they couldn't do $1bn tranches if they were so minded, but I would have thought $500m makes more sense in terms of how the RCF is structured."

gdshaw and myo, my understanding is also that $500m is a formal tranche size of the SM bond, and also the size of the RCF debt tranche. The Initial h.y.bond is of $500m, which serves as a test/challenge to seen if SM bond could be sold on the bond market. The second SM $500m bond is used to return the first $500m RCF tranche. It seems possible if SM wants to overdraft two $500m RCF tranches of debt, before raising further SM bond tranches to return to RCF. This will trigger two warning at the same, or one after another in very short time . The warning relating to the $1b limit is a harsh one, which will invoke a re-assessment of the further debt availability from RCF (even passed the assessment, further overdraft would become extremely costly, say, c.25% interest). Therefore, the normal sequence would be
0. the Initial $500m SM bond (before September 2019);
1. the first tranche of $500m debt from RCF (roughly June 2020);
2. the second $500m SM bond (roughly Nov 2020);
3. the second tranche of $500m debt from RCF (roughly June 2021);
4. the third $500m SM bond (roughly Nov 2021);
...
Only when SM takes two RCF $500m tranches in one go or one after another after the Initial $500m SM bond tranche, the second SM bond tranche could be raised at the middle of 2021 after the first poly (if the stretched first poly target is reached).