PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
bigsmoke,
31 Dec 2011 - 916m.
31 Dec 2012 - 1037m (bit of a placement I think from skim of annual reports, seemingly at good money).
31 Dec 2013 - 1057m.
31 Dec 2014 - 1062m.
31 Dec 2015 - 1073m.
31 Dec 2106 - 1213m (issued a few to buy distressed assets at peak stress in oil market it looks like)
31 Dec 2017 - 1213m.
Two things to learn, how many shares have been out there and a judgement could be made on managements competence with respect to timing, in exchange for the gifting of the few extra ones that have turned up.
Thanks for prompting me to look.
Questions for me are, will ONGC want 100% ownership of CPO-5 by buying it off AMER first. Will sale be part of a deal with GTE? Would they rather keep GTE as a partner with tons of experience in the region? Then consider OP, output, margin and p/e multiples for each bit, synergies etc. Top 2 have 20m shares each and will have 10m sterling in mind as an opener I think.
Doc,
I can think of a buyer for RH last 7m......
BigBiteNow,
Your 4 year analysis looks even more interesting from the point of view of a predator, who will have dollars, you would presume.
Convert the market cap to dollars at the time (which has moved from 1.6 to 1.3)and take the cash out (which has moved from 40m to 50/60m).
Juxt,
found the $16.343m 'trade and other receivables' in the balance sheet of the 2017 annual report.
found this in the 2018 half year;
'Trade and other receivables have increased by $12.3 million since 31 December 2017 principally due to longer payment terms associated with the Shell offtake agreement. This is however compensated for by the $7.5 million deferred income balance from Shell within Trade and other payables. After adjusting for this $7.5 million, trade and other payables have decreased by $8.4 million as result of reduced capital expenditure and timing of supplier and royalty payments'.
Regards, Wuffle.
Pp,
A 25m dollar uplift in cash at hand in H2 seems unlikely.
A 6k daily average for H2, itself an optimistic forward looking estimate but which I think just possible, would need at least a 13 dollar average oil price rise, which doesn't seem so likely.
It looks up by about 5 dollars at the half way point so would need a huge increase in q4.
More likely would be about the same as H1, 10m dollar uplift with better OP offsetting a lower output.
The exit could be very interesting though, if the OP has some legs, a rising output and a reduced cost base as Chiritza is reimbursed.
Focus,
Selling the capacity to others on a short term basis might have a disruptive effect on the delicate economic balance. Annoying tanker transport for little gain having spent money keeping the locals onside for years.
I don't think it is as straightforward as 'it is there so use it'. Might have to grow into it, but I may be wrong.
There is a big cash position here. The real assets have been down graded by rather more than the price move would suggest. 115m sterling for the prospective (huge), production (profitable) and pipeline (upgraded) looks even more stupid.
jtd,
I shortened that a bit too much and lost the clarity.
Partly I was pointing out just the oil price. Any 5 year helicopter view of Amer that casually glosses over the historically significant oil collapse isn't really going to get it right.
Then there is the distinct divergence from a point in time which was prompted by one entity, but which has clearly been amplified by the 'free money' available to others who are ambivalent about the company and along for the ride.
Very long term shareholders are blaming management when really they misread the oil price collapse. Management virtually shut down operations which seems like they didn't misread it to me but ho-hum.
The RH thing has been a lesson for me.
I am not a chartist, I have chosen a very fundamental one I think to illustrate profitability and future earnings vs market cap.and it just goes wrong. Why is it wrong? Is it permanent?
Your view of the potential upside here seems a distinct possibility.
I don't want to 'bottle' this early.
Thanks for the considered reply.
Stockable,
in response to paragraph 1 specifically, a little perspective can be had from the AMER vs oil price chart I highlighted earlier.
Should the RH holding not be taken in context of the stock on loan?
When RH has less than 10m left, won't the holders of loan stock get twitchy?
How close to that are we now?
jtd,
Agreed, into a recovering oil market also. Don't think so.
Anyone up to speed with SOCO's swoop on a producing asset in Egypt?
Ballpark scale similar to Amer overall, though I am unaware of any strategic significance or upgrade potential beyond onshore production.
Always worth keeping an eye on valuation elsewhere though with the caveat that no 2 oilfields are in any way comparable. It is notable that both they and Ophir have displayed a keenness to pick up producing assets with their cash piles lately.
The ratio displayed a distinct peak lately in the 1.5s, basically a record.
A coincidence around industrial demand or is that the point where holders of gold thought 'I might as well hang on to a bit of that instead'. The market sizes mean only plat will move very much in the exchange.
Soco similarly subdued despite being a cash rich producer. There are others.
I mention them specifically because a dividend there doesn't appear to make any difference.
Likely to be decent but temporary.
More instructive to consider the imminent expenditure as sunk and contemplate life with or without more oil.
Only seems fair to put down a marker.
3p each cash and CPO-5., under 10p for the rest.
In view of my previous post, are they right?
Anyone prepared to put a value against cash and the obviously saleable asset CPO-5 to get some indication of what you are really paying for the end game Putumayo basin.
The obvious caveats of drilling expenses and successful outcomes or otherwise notwithstanding.
Worth noting that the director buys are out of date on lse.co.uk.
Several directors were keen to top up around this price in April and the oil price has looked pretty healthy since. No one went berserk but they did appear to be of one mind that 15p was worth a punt.
Wonder what they might do when the closed period ends?