Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Fair point, NigeCo. Yet, it would be quite a serious matter, and very foolish, to mislead, never mind lie, about the reason for sale. Just wondering whether he might be paying inheritance tax on a superb London residence once owned by his parents. Having difficulty in imagining any other explanation.
I think I'm right in saying that Christopher Martin's sale represented only 24% of his holding. Draw your own conclusions.
You are quite right, RWD. The market is indeed bonkers. It happens from time to time. Hang in there!
My own feeling is that SMS would never sell out. He has forged deep and long-lasting relations with his BoD, especially perhaps Scott Spirit whom he brought from WPP. And he must have good relations with all the companies brought under the S4/Media Monks umbrella. So far as his family is concerned, SMS could simply transfer his shares to them thus reducing or even avoiding IHT and at their present value reducing substantially CGT payable. I therefore think there is no prospect whatsoever of him selling his shares to an outsider.
I think the idea that SMS would ever sell his golden share is a little far-fetched. So far as I know, he could never be forced to sell it. I also consider it highly unlikely that he would do so voluntarily. For a start, he does not need the money. More importantly, this is his baby and nothing would please him more than to build a great company, enabling him to thumb his nose at his detractors in WPP, who, I may say, seem to me to be basking in his past glories. He, on the other hand, seems to me to want "to boldly go" and conquer new summits. The important thing as an investor is not to be distracted by temporary hiccups but to come to a view as to whether there is a convincing long-term strategy in play. Does anyone honestly believe that SMS does not think long-term? Does anyone honestly believe that his BoD are not convinced by his vision? My inclination here is "Fill your boots".
Everyone must make their own decisions, of course. But many successful companies have exhibited this sort of arrested development in their early days. As I have observed already, none of the directors appear to be selling, and I rather doubt that ant of them are dopes.
US inflation rate is only 4.93% and that is S4's major market for the moment.
Nothing personal, AI, but I think that is a rather harsh judgement. You are of course entitled to your view, but I prefer to regard the present state of play as consolidatory. It seems to me that as inflation continues to be squeezed in the American economy, more improvement can be expected. And the proposed share buy-back suggests, it seems to me, quiet confidence on the part of the BoD. Overall, it looks like "Steady as she goes" to me.
I like the news re the prospective share buy-back too, NigeCo. That should give the market a little more confidence unless there is any bad news re SMS in the upcoming broadcast. Whilst I don't really expect much to happen to the SP until that takes place, I was also impressed by the list of new clients with whom there is some engagement despite there being no new whoppers as yet. I was slightly surprised to read that business in Europe was rather flat-lining given the progress of most large EU economies since the pandemic; of course our own sceptred isle continues to suffer from the Brexit-induced self-inflicted wounds currently being ignored or denied by HMG. I was talking to a Yorkshire sheep farmer last week. He is in despair and is desperate to sell up and retire. His remarks on Brexit, BoJo, Farage etc are unprintable.
Thank-you, NigeCo. So much of investing is really about instinct, isn't it? I remember looking at Hikma perhaps 20 years ago and having a good feeling about it. I try to spot winners, then buy and hold them as they grow. Having another look at Anpario this week as one of the directors bought a hefty pile of shares last week (see last w/end's FT Money).
We cannot ignore the fact that there is money to be made elsewhere just now. But, I repeat, major shareholders are not selling. There can only be one reason for that. Buyers will return here once this company starts producing divis, with or without SMS.
If you look at the top share-holders here, you will see that they each own millions of shares, especially SMS himself. None of these individuals or funds appear to be selling. I take my cue from them.
I am beginning to wonder whether SMS had been found to have had bowel cancer. He speaks of having to have further treatment. Well, a friend of mine had the same problem and lots of radiotherapy several years ago and is still with us. SMS does not sound alarmed and I rather suspect he is not bluffing. I refuse to worry.
The man has more money than he will ever need. And at the very least, there is no evidence that he has been selling.
Totally agree with your strategy from here on in, Tom. Well said. Time for cool heads.
Just as I expected with the losses being much higher than last year. I don't anticipate any significant rise until the end of H1 in 2024.
And so I think the SP may drop further yet. Myopia reigns supreme!
Going by the market's reaction the last time S4 posted an operating loss, I'm afraid I expect the SP to fall again tomorrow. No matter - I still have confidence in this company.
As ever, NigeCo, good sense, measured anticipation and optimism founded on professional forecasts. Yes, I do think increased interest rates will impact upon future profits but we all know that economies ebb and flow. It makes sense to buy and hold good companies for the longer term as John Lee and others have pointed out. I believe SMS is building a winner here and that it will prosper richly when the world economyturns the corner as it inevitably will. Advertising will never be a declining industry.
Of course SMS gets a kick out of building up S4. Why else would he do it when he has made so much wonga already? But this question is a two-sided coin. I think it is safe to assume that SMS is doing his damnedest to see that S4 does not fail. Yes, of course he has to carry the market with him in order to do so, as any business-man does, but his track record rather suggests he knows how to do so, does it not? My own opinion is that he is a lot smarter than some of the City types who are currently writing him off and do not have his record of success. That, I suspect, is why the owners of many successful businesses have been happy to join with him in this venture. These people are smart enough to know that integration takes time. Patience is key here, but I would still say "Fill your boots."