Member Info for WorldWidePleb

Well, as a shareholder who wasn't overly pleased with the company in the past - Great presentation and well done to Helge and the team.

The Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has given its approval to the formation of the Joint Venture, which was the key regulatory approval sought, and completion of the transaction is now expected to occur in the first half of July 2023.

For myself, this is due to the low sentiment. The O&G market sentiment compiled with low sentiment in the small caps - TXP is in both categories - sentiment will turn.

But without the above, there wouldn't be such a fantastic opportunity here. I like it when facts speak and the bb of a company is quite - The herd hasn't arrived.

I don't think this is on peoples radars - it doesn't show on stock screens etc, once a couple of quarters of production are booked and issues a dividend then it will garner more attention. Esp from institution if it has a divi.

In the end cash is king and a company will value itself/return value to shareholders on those metrics.

I want to ask the company at the presentation if it will buy back its own shares given the SP remains low - with the current EV/2P it make sense to buy back its own reserves/ production.

Let's say they reach the 15,000BOEPD by YE offering a 39% FCF yield- It could make itself private in 2+ years, not drill anything else and return all money at a 39% yield to shareholders for the remaining life of the asset - 10-20years + ( Given a few more producer wells)

This company isn't one with a product introduced to a market worth X amount and it wants to capture X amount and everything is up in the air ‘if, buts and maybes’. The Gas is there, the reserves are there, the buyer is there, future wells are funded from cash flow, price fixed etc - It's a gem IMO

Tuck it away, IMO you’ll be due a lot more than 70p.

Let's say they grow production and reserves at 20% for 5 years ( I think this is a conservative growth rate given they except ~ 30,000BOEPD by YE 2024) & presume they hit the -15,000BOEPD target by end of year.

The FCF yield will be 97% of current EV.

Cas-A coming online will be a significant derisk for the company.

Will be I interesting to see what Helge has to say about the coming months.

Further upside:

1. Cascadura reserves upgrade: Only a few sheets have been flow-tested. Other drills and flow tests should boost the reserve number. Cas-C, which is to be drilled in August, is the sweet spot.

2. Further wells will increase the production number significantly.

3. 20 more high-grade exploration targets

4. Balata East block: Cascadura and Royston look to extend into this block. It was traded for something like 100Bopd + asset. Colossal value add, IMO. 3D seismic already acquired - Big value add, again.

5. Cipero acreage is in the north of the Herra sands fairway – This block, I presume, is a while off drill ready, though.

Competitive advantage:

1. Fixed price gas contract, which is priced higher than current open market gas prices – Predictable revenue stream

2. The Trinidad market will take all the oil and gas the company can produce – You don’t have to find a buyer

3. Minimal Opex per well due to the enormous volume and low decline rates.

4. . Most wells in O&G produce in the 100’s and top end a 1000 bbls a well. Between the first two Cas-A wells, it’s ~ 6500BOEPD each. These were also drilled as exploration wells, not producers - Worth noting.

5. On shore, cheap to drill wells into a known formation/s

6. Proven hydrocarbon pregnant acreage.

7. Pipeline installations are paid by the NGC

8. Facilities are now installed and about ready to go.

9. Oil pipeline runs through the acreage.

Genuinely happy no one else is interested in this; I’ve been quietly adding at these prices.

As far as I can see, the causes for the delays – Government checks and permitting - are now resolved. Once the cash flow starts, the drill bit will make Orotire into a pin cushion- significant compounding growth in FCF and reserves.

Can you find any other security offering a 30% FCF yield and significant growth over the next 6 months to 1 year and onwards, with secured take-all fixed price contracts?

For myself, this is a recession-busting giveaway. Who cares about demand and gas prices here? IMO - Equity bond.

All IMO and DYOR

What metrics are you using to value TXP scored?

I won’t give a figure for myself, but I price TXP in £’s, not pence.

I see TXP as significantly undervalued vs other E&P’s, and the true value has been well north of the current depressed share price.

I use a few metrics, such as EV/BOE value per day, EV/2P reserves. Debt, interest coverage, FCF yield, political jurisdiction, tax regime, competitive advantage, growth and asset potential. On these metrics, IMV, the Cascadura acreage is world-class.

I think a few factors have created the value opportunity – The oil market has had one of its worst H1 in 15 years, and small-cap liquidity is the worst in 25 years.TXP is in both these categories, and management has missed targets. For the missed targets, it is worth considering that this is the first gas in 20 years brought online in Trinidad…

Given that the facility is now built, and the commission notice issued with guidance to the government and the local population of 2 weeks to complete, I’m expecting the first gas (Commercial) to be on-time or something close. End of this month, the beginning of next – Who knows, though? In the big scheme with the value on offer here, it isn’t significant to me now.

Consider the value of the first two wells to come online (Out of a planned 10 total for Cascadura – This been one discovery on the block.

For FCF, guidance was $14m per quarter once the 9,200 BOE from Cas-A comes online. So 2,200BOEPD current + The 9,200BOEPD = 11,400BOEPD = ~ £45m FCF (Management guidance)

EV= £150M

So FCF yield will be ~30%

That’s huge even for an unloved oil company.

They expect to increase production to 15,000 – 17,000BOEPD with no further CAPEX – Just ‘Opening the taps’ on the Cas-A wells.

FCF yield then = 39% - 45% by year-end.

Check all this for yourself. And this is a safe jurisdiction and low-decline asset!

Because of the fixed price contract and the low decline rates, I consider this, as Buffet puts it, as an ‘Equity bond.’

A company with predictable cash flows.

So by June/July, this, in my eyes, is a bond with a 30% yield with tremendous growth potential. A yield of 39%-45% by year-end… if they proceed as planned.

That’s just Cas-A

If Royston comes in this year, then who knows where that yield will stand.

With the Cas-C drills, double that and add a possible significant reserve upgrade.

Echelon’s International Oil & Gas Conference.

I watched it live but I’m sure if you Google it will return a recording.

An excellent presentation last night.

A bit disappointed to hear drilling is mid 2024- and that’s the earliest and contingent we can secure a rig.

Slow burner but great prospects. Back to the bottom drawer. Thankful to know what’s going on now.

No, Jamis, I voice apparent and logical questions that arise. Don't get childish and emotional. This isn’t dream land.

Did you believe everything the PANR management told you when they were selling their shares at the top?

I’m just amazed that no Tr-1 has popped up from Shell or BP yet!

Maybe Asher is fending off a corporate takeover as we speak!? Ah that must be the reason for no interview.

I can’t imagine the excitement in the office right now.

If they were in farm out negotiations or even approached for them, you can bet your bottom dollar it would be crowed about.

A lot of large selling volume? Big round number trades.

Is this all to try and get an exit for the last placing stock?

If they’ve just found ‘potentially’ billions of bbls of resources, surely an interview would be forthcoming.

With Asher jumping off his seat in excitement. Wild-eyed, hands waving.

Instead we get dodgy high volume trading

the day before- statistically in the extreme. Usually trades a few £100 and it trades £Million +... Then an odd update with complete silence. No interview. Like someone dosen't want questions.

Feels like someone wanted to make a cheap buck.

No interview, complete silence, as if it's just another update, not the announcing of a world class size monster field on the licence of a £4m cap company that is desperate to fund itself.

Sometimes this is like Satire. This needs looking into.

People cautious to believe the update?

Given this usually trades at so little volume.

No activity for weeks.

Yesterday it goes nova.

Lo and behold, out comes an RNS…with results from a survey.

I still think it's the placing shares selling into low volume. Then a few non confident hands following them.

London took the majority of the raise.

Zero has changed in the company outlook. You can now buy shares for the same price as 3 years ago, when exploration just began and 1/3 of the price after the Cascudura discovery re-rate.

*The twitter update was on the 08/06/23

I came across this article.

I know it's an older article (Feb), but it has a % Completed at the time, schedule.

“Touchstone remains on track to complete the Cascadura facility prior to this date to ensure production can commence as soon as NGC is in a position to receive first gas.”

Then in reply from the NGC

“Touchstone Exploration has been notified by The National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago that they expect to be ready to receive first gas from the Cascadura natural gas and associated liquids facility on or about June 30, 2023.”

It looks like the NGC pipeline was completed a while ago now. Not to sure about tested - Will have a look.

“the communication tower is approximately 80 percent complete;

the pipe racks are approximately 90 percent assembled with hydrotesting initiated, and the units are expected to arrive at the facility within the next three weeks;

on-site condensate tanks are approximately 65 percent complete;.”

The Twitter update “The liquids condensate tanks at Cascadura facility are complete”

They looked to be on track in Feb, and the NGC looks to have completed its side, so i’m cautiously optimistic that it may come together around June/July.

As always time will tell.

Article - https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/trinidad/touchstone-provides-update-on-cascadura-facility-190670

Were you caught out on the announcement?

A few quotes from TerryMC for other companies.

“Yeah the one I said was a screaming short from just above 60p.”

“Predicted the short from 170”

“Just closed short above 34p”

Are you trying to short a £10m mcap which has just signed a JV with a £Billion + company and that is injecting cash in many multiples of the current market cap?

One more quote from yourself: “epic fail”

It's actually more like 6 weeks now.

Did you miss the Longboat 🥲

Brilliant news, we secured the Cipero block.

It's in the North of the Herra sands fair way. In an interview they stated this is where the gas producing source rock is most likely.