Member Info for workingstiff

Looks positive.

The silence is unnerving. We can only hope that the major shareholders who sided with them this time around know something we don't. Something that is good for all shareholders, that is.

You would have thought Putin would put some pressure on Ugold to do the right thing - to make Russia an attractive place for inward investment.

Goldminers generally are having a tough time today

back in again. I have the resolution of a gnat

I'm gone. I'll keep an eye on it and maybe buy back in.

Ha! After all that they didn't tell us!

It's off to a brisk start this morning. i wonder if there is any insider money going into it?

2015 bonds that should have been, not 2015 shares

Rusty
On the first point we'll agree to differ. I think that last year POG would have raised a loan to buy back the 2015 CB's if they had been acting in the interests of all shareholders, but I take your point that the dilutive effect would have been greater if the 2015 shares had been allowed to mature. Maybe Pav's intention was to roll these CB's over ad infinitum, at an ever increasing conversion price, but I doubt it.

On the second point I think UGC have converted their bonds to increase their voting power at Monday's GM. If they win they get control. If they lose decisively - such that they don't think there is a realistic chance they will ever get control - then they may decide to take a stonking profit and take their predatory instincts elsewhere. That doesn't necessarily mean they will flood the market with shares. They may seek to identify a buyer. Hence my fantasy about the Norwegian sovereign fund.

Rusty
I don't think he needed to issue convertible bonds last year, and certainly not at such outrageously generous terms. The gold price was on the up, the POX hub had been built, the corner had been turned.

No, I think last year's bond issue was a gift to the major shareholders at the expense of the minor shareholders. Pav showed us his colours then. He is what he is - the least worst option at the moment. If he survives this time, at some point he will want to repay the majors who saved his bacon.

The perfect outcome would be that Pav wins well enough for UGC and co to sell up, and an ethical investor - like the Norwegian Sovereign Fund - steps in and replaces them. Over time it would then become a better, more responsibly managed company. Ah, the dreams we dream :-)

Kenj,
If he has got some of the bond converters and he gets a turnout of 90 - 95% he could win well. This vote has had a lot of publicity and it may be that the unaligned see him as the least worst bet. I suppose the options are:
1 He wins well and (after a potential sell off by the losers) the share price runs north until he does something stupid like issue more CB's.
2 He scrapes home and the uncertainty continues.
3 He loses. Then Strukov either a) takes the company private or b) reverses his company into POG. Option b would probably result in a massive share dilution as POG issues shares to "buy" UGC.

As I say, if it's option 1 I'll throw my HGM proceeds at it. If it's option 2 I'll hang on to my current holding for a while to see if Pav can reach some sort of accommodation with UGC. If it's option 3 I'll cut and run. In an environment where the gold price is rising there are other fish to fry.

With regard to whether or not POG is at fair value, given the issue of additional shares -

1 I believe the rejection of the old board at the AGM has constrained the share price since June 30th. It had rising momentum up to that point.
2 Despite the uncertainty the share price rose sharply after the H1 trading update on 23rd July. It has fallen somewhat in the last week or so. I believe this has been caused by a combination of the new share issues and uncertainty as to what will happen on Monday.
3 The shares issued so far to cover bond redemptions represent a dilution of around 17%. The closing spot price for gold on June 30th was $1785. The closing price on Friday was 2035 - an increase of around 14%. When you take the increase in the GP over the period together with the reduction of net debt and associated interest, I think this cancels out the dilution effect of new shares issued - so far.

So my conclusion is that - if Pavel wins the boardroom battle convincingly enough for the pre June 30th momentum to be gained - once people get their slide rules out they will see value here. I intend to buy more on Monday if Pav wins well.

I missed a trick today. I cashed in some HGM shares I had after the sneaky takeover there. I intended to hold the cash until Monday, ready to bump up my POG holding if the voting at the EGM went the right way. But with what has happened to gold over the last couple of days I should have parked the money in the likes of HOC, CEY and PAF first thing this morning until Friday afternoon. But I missed it.

Doh!

That means around $80m of the $125m bonds have now been converted. If nothing else this, little spat has helped to heal the wounds inflicted by the favouritism displayed by the CB issue.

"This was justified end of July resistance $2003/05...."

Get the **** out of it! You were telling us in June that Gold was going to retest $1450!

Spot gold has hit $2000, POG.L is wound like a loaded spring. All we need now is the right result Monday am.

RB

" UGC may attempt a reverse takeover of Petropavlovsk .... In a reverse takeover, a private company buys enough shares to control a publicly traded company. This type of merger enables the private company to become publicly-traded without resorting to an initial public offering."

Forgive me if I'm being dull but wouldn't that mean that Strukov would miss out on the millions he could raise in an IPO?

JRC1000 We seem to be at cross purposes. You were talking specifically about UGC, I thought you were talking about the total bond conversion announced yesterday.

In any case my doubt still stands. Even if the cash alternative for UGC's bonds was - say $50m to $60m, I still think they would have struggled to come up with it. As Rusty says below, this is a company that has always had a unique talent for making cash "disappear". There may be perfectly reasonable explanations for this - POG has always been an ambitious company, focussed on growth and the future. But they never explain.

JRC100 - Over $48m worth of bonds were converted, not $28.4m.

mdunsire

Thanks for the response, but what I really wanted to know is whether Prosperity have already or intend to convert their bonds in time for next week's vote.