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I have made my thoughts and opinions very clear over the years that I have been invested in ALK ... You would do well to spend more time reading & researching this company rather than posting same old - same old on here. Nothing personal (as I don't know you personally) but it is starting to look like your intensions may not be as straight as you claim. My one question to you is ... Are you invested here yet ???
Best post I have read on any BB all day ... Absolute class !! Couldn't have said it better myself. Volume has been noticeably higher than usual for last couple of days, yet SP has not crashed (Despite those dastardly MMs reporting nearly all trades as Sells) ... Ask yourself why SP has not collapsed below 30p when over 1.5m sells transacted over last few days plus we have a couple of negative nellies lurking ? Hmmmm ... One smells a rat and a sneaky plot me thinks !! Those who have researched and followed ALK for more than ten minutes will know that recent weakness is a reflection of oil markets and general sentiment, with more than a sprinkle of MM intervention IMO. C7 - How many times do we have to tell you that ALK will benefit from STOR activities which can be turned on And off within 30 mins of receiving an order from the Grid (Massive premium rates charged by ALK due to short notice nature of the demand) ... NOT their base load generation which has, as well you know, been pre-sold at fixed rates which in itself is profitable if it were the only sales we had, which it isn't !! Ken - have you been banned yet ? If so please can you explain what or who C7 actually is because I am struggling to understand why he/she/it cannot seem to grasp the most simple of concepts... Like when you sell electric to the Grid at very short notice the price paid by the Grid is much higher than when you sell forward a prescribed volume at a fixed contractual price !!!!! It's not rocket science ... Is it me ???
Yes, glad that you have now spotted why Baz was tearing his hair out previously when you were seeing those transactions as a negative ... Both directors came out of the dealing with a larger holding than they had before. Directors have increased their holding ... Got to be good news. ALK been dragged down with wider markets IMHO ... Nothing to be concerned about and hopefully a fruitful winter season to look forward to !
Bingo ... You hit the nail firmly and squarely on the head !! Base production I'd forward sold in order to flatten and secure our core revenue stream, STOR is a different proposition and by it's very nature is not revenue that can be 100% baked into projections but on the plus side it sells at significant premium over base !!! Any disruption to the already aging and fragile UK generation infrastructure is potentially VERY good news for companies who can step upto the plate and supply at short notice ... Now if only we knew of such a provider ???!!! Rye - You most certainly do not have things mixed up. GLA and let's hope that Drax suffers catastrophic turbine dizziness or a couple of cooling towers develop vertigo ! (LOL) BOD have their heads screwed correctly and have been guiding the ship with this exact situation in mind ... There WILL be power shortages in UK soon and ALK have built a business that is perfectly positioned to prosper as a direct result, GLA Wooly
Ahh... It would appear that you have some "previous" with regard pointing out the potential downside in a company ... You obviously are not the author of the book "How to win friends and influence people" ! Anyway, you asked a straight question, therefore I will give you a straight answer : If EDR were ever to go belly up = ALK stake in that business becomes worthless. Good news is that stake didn't cost us a penny (in fact we were paid hard cash by EDR plus we were given their shares for free) !! All we did was sign over the rights to our previously owned shale acreage. If EDR make a huge success of their chosen business the ALK are entitled to benefit from any dividends issued by EDR, plus our asset (the paper stake in EDR) will probably increase in value exponentially ... As you might expect ... ALK have effectively been given a sizable LONG position in EDR for free ! So, I guess my point is (referring to my previous post) .. Investors really need to concentrate on ALKs core competence (electricity generation) and simple ignore the fact that we also have a sizable minority share in another listed company who happen to be at the cutting edge of a soon to be HUGE o&g sector in the UK. Question for you sir - If I own a minority stake in Lloyd's ... Does that make me a banker ??? Because as I see it this is the basis fog you suggesting that you have decided not to invest in ALK, which I might add is one of the best companies on AIM in my opinion. Ken, Baz, RE76 ... Don't take the bait !
I can't help but feel that you may be making your comments and investment decisions based on a logic that is somewhat out of balance ?! Remember the 80:20 rule !!! First the 20 : You are fixating on the risks associated with shale & fracking ... Nobody is blind to the inherent risks in this relatively new industry, even our BoD saw that our extensive shale assets carried risk and the need for heavy investment, that's why they sold them for cash and the stake in EDR that you mention - lots ! Now the 80 : Fact is that ALK are now highly DE-risked in terms of that aspect of operations and the business can now continue to concentrate on our core competences which are converting gas (getting cheaper as you say) into electricity in a market where supply is shortening and demand is growing ! So, you might understand why some posters are frustrated at you highlighting the "20" as a massive risk (when it clearly is not) and brushing over the "80" when in actual fact this is what the company is ALL about now. If I offered you $1000 and said that you could keep $800 but you may have to give PART of the $200 back at some point in the future ... Would you take my money ???? Wooly has been here a long long time, I have seen highs and lows, seen posters come and go ... Balance is a good thing like you say, but be careful you don't lose yours and topple over buddy. I wish you all the best with whatever investment decisions you make, guess we all want the same result ultimately ... !! Recent retrace mirrors all global indices and unless ALK drop a placing on us, it should be viewed as a great buying opportunity ... At least that's how I am reading the current situation. Wooly reiterates target @ 46-49p GLA
Very interesting and informative interview with CEO of Greencore USA : http://youtu.be/8mhGGZ2Ylc4
Well, it would seem that the seller has managed to talk down the SP as far as this piece of news was concerned ... They don't appear to have shed too many today as volume was to say the very least 'Modest' and to my eye there was a good sprinkling of buys in among the red numbers (cheeky monkeys) !! So the question now is "Why they holding it back on low volume" ??? Something strange going on here, there are definitely orders being filled and we know Hendos are reducing / taking profit ... But who is mopping up their cast offs I wonder ? Ken - Keep your eyes out for holdings RNS and also watch the Institutional Movers and shakers data (you are keen as mustard at that) Baz - Loved your last post buddy, eloquent frustration (top drawer, nicely done) All other ALKies - Hold firm, be patient as this stock is a winner, I have been in here since 2007 and not selling yet !! Breaking News : Wooly reiterates BUY and maintains 46-49p target (Reuters and Bloomberg will start to take note of my SP targets one day, I have been fairly accurate over the years) !! Ok I am boring myself now, remember this people .... If all pork chops were perfect, we wouldn't have hot dogs !!
Somebody (My guess = Henderson) has decided to significantly reduce their position in here but doesn't want to destroy the SP. The seller appears to be quite comfortable to drop bundles at 38-39p therefore I would expect SP to remain fairly flat for some time until either they are all done or news arrives that stimulates enough buying interest to enable the seller to achieve their end game sooner than expected.... until then .... flat-liner ! Keep an eye out for opportunities to add a few more on any weakness. Cheers Wooly ;o)
You may have answered your own question in your post on Wednesday. Henderson have been our largest II for a long time and (Surprise, surprise) they had a period of steadily selling off @44-40p just prior to the latest placing @36p ... Hmmmmmm !! fair play - They put their hand in their profit ... oops, I mean "Pocket'' and took another bundle in the placing ... now they are announcing that they have reduced their voting rights by 1.3m (Voting rights - Is that code for shares held) ?? I notice that they also have a convertible loan that matures at the end of April 2015 - 12m shares @17.5p ... so that should take the edge off any rise we are likely to see when year end results are issued (I can't see Hendo's popping that little chunk in the bottom drawer - Expect to see them selling heavily into that news) !! Anyway - Guess we are stuck around here for a while until further news (Ops statement to update on production run rates or the likes). GLA - Wooly
Anyone new to this share or maybe on the sidelines wondering if they should invest, perhaps this statistic will offer some crumbs of comfort or sway you to commit to this little gem. Institutional Investor Activity : Ten (10) month period to 30th July 2014 ... Total share SOLD = 1.87m Five (5) month period to 24th July 2014... Total shares BOUGHT = 20.06m Wise man once say ... FOLLOW THE MONEY !!!! Brokers & Analysts forecasting anywhere from 50-56p (12mth horizon) ... I am a little more conservative with my target of 46-49p (8-9mth horizon). Market trades at PEx15-16 (Strong performance rewarded x18-20)... ALK 5yr ave PEx11-12 (Really) !! Conclusion = Mr Money knows where this is headed, question is... do you ?? I'll let you do the math !!! Wooly ;o)
I have said time & time again that ALK's special / magic number is x11.75 ... well here we are once again sat bang on the money assuming that earnings forecast is accurate (Well managed chaps) !! OK ... so, with that in mind and in the knowledge that we trade at a discount to the wider market I figured it was about time for me to reiterate my previous ''Wooly'' Target at 46-49p (Not quite as aggressive as our House Broker, but then again I am not paid to promote ALK, I do it because I believe in the Management & their strategies) !! IMHO +30% to be made here for those prepared to sit tight until spring statement 2015 ... What say ye ?
River & Mercantile Asset Management LLP +6.81m (Hold = 6.81m) = NEW BUYER Miton Asset Management Ltd. +4.65m (Now Hold 6.48m) = SIGNIFICANT % INCREASE Henderson Global Investors Ltd. +4.59m (Now hold : 22.55m) = SNEAKY MONKEY (Drip, Drip, Drip Selling - Discounted Placing - BUY !!!) ... Coincidence ?? Pension Services Ltd. +2.63m (Now Hold : 6.63m) = SIGNIFICANT % INCREASE GLG Partners UK Ltd. +1.38m (Now Hold : 1.38m) = NEW BUYER
I agree Baysil ... Mr Money was being a wee cheeky monkey by making room in his piggy bank so he could take his discounted bundle (Not cricket really, but that's what you can do when you are making your own rules in this game) !? Took a few more myself yesterday, I truly thought that it was bottoming out (They were refusing every bid that I made so eventually capitulated and paid his ticket price) only to see it walked back a bit more today ... Grrrrr !!! I suspect you are right in so much as there maybe orders to fill at and around the placing price ... But as you rightly say, output is only going one way this autumn, winter and spring ... Not to mention the organic growth and existing project pipeline. EPS forecast @ 3.3p this year and 4.1p next year ... What say you sir ?? Observation : ALK trades at x11.75 market trades at x16 (give or take), so With record output and a few grains of good news re: EDR we might be looking at SP @???? Sweet dreams fellow ALKies Wooly 🐏👍🐏
One for the Yorkshire massive ... Sorry its really just a poor attempt at regional humour founded on limited understanding of condiment consumption to the Eastern side of the Pennines ... I will fetch my coat !! Seriously though, recent holdings statement from Henderson Global suggests that they continue to reduce their holding in ALK (Now below 15%) and before anyone starts, yes, I fully appreciate that they are still the Big-un amongst our Institutions, however their slow but seemingly continual liquidation of their stock is undoubtedly a key reason for the SP plateau that we have experienced in here IMO. The lackluster reaction to the last company update has meant that HG have had to work hard to dispose of stock without a more pronounced dip in SP ... or am I misreading the situation and is there a NKOTB that has negotiated a deal with Hendo's in order to enable the reduction at a predetermined price somewhere around 40p give or take a bit ?? All I know is that we are trading dangerously close to 52wk lows ... driven by poor (Albeit expected) output in H1 and a seller with more to shift that there are buyers for it ... not to put to fine a point on things !! Are we ready for a top-up people ... I said... ARE WE READY FOR A TOP-UP ???!!! Y-all have a nice day !! ;o)
Don't worry Ken ... I am still here, reading the BB every day (Just taken time out from posting as had lots going on outside of investments etc.since April). Rest assured I am still holding my ALK shares tightly with one eye on adding a few more if/when Mr Money walks it back toward its magic number (5yr average PE)... alas the lack of reaction/attention following the EDR deal perhaps indicates that the news was priced in already or that the deal was leaked when we spiked on that French sector investment earlier this year ? Excuse the timing of the post, but circumstances dictate that my ramblings (or ''Rampings'') maybe long after hours for quite some time. Keep up the great work here chaps ... the more BB traffic the better as I am still utterly convinced that 90% of PI's will have never heard of ALK and yet this is the type of AIM business that many should have in their PF. As I have always said, if nothing else ALK is a great hedge against your own utility expenses ... as the lecky bill rises then so should your investment (Perverse logic) LOL !!
Welcome on board, hope that you continue to enjoy reading and also contributing on here. I have been a HUGE fan and shareholder of Alkane for a number of years, I still see there is good upside with the business and fingers crossed that IGAS et al manage to ramp up the shale hype again in order that we may capitalise on the growing interest in such assets ...we have a fair chunk of acreage tucked up our jumper !! Markets have been a tad dower in recent weeks, we could use some info on specific projects IMHO ... I spoke with ALK a few weeks back but nothing to report on here. Kenstaff often keeps the BB ticking and is a good source of research data... What do you make of UKC announcements yesterday ... More potential gas assets for us to pick up from the receiver at bargain prices maybe ???? Great to see new posters joining us in ALK, best of luck with your investments. Regards Wooly
Henderson Global ... although they still hold ca 15% of share capital. Big question is HOW MANY are they selling .... there maybe some 'Buying opportunities' on the horizon if they decide to offload lots of them. Hold tight and get ready to add more - Wooly
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Energy-boss-warns-supply-shortage/story-20809642-detail/story.html Alkane can see it ... Ofgem can see it .... when will Mr Money wake up to the fact that there is an energy crunch looming and ALK are sitting pretty ready to fill the gaps and reap the rewards ?? Another set of solid results from Alkane and half a dozen projects in the pipeline that will hopefully further strengthen our position.