Member Info for wobble24

Had a loss today. Immaterial my guess, can’t win em all I suppose…

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/104633950

Not that i would endorse this approach, but will none the less watch with interest. This case has just had its hearing concluded with what looks to be our lead prosecutor leading the charge. Will be waiting to see the outcome as to how they performed. I know nothing about the case!

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/22/25

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/evgeniya-rubinina_proud-to-have-completed-the-merits-hearing-activity-7261697860297969664-dUdI/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02879038-6A1236903

Poland deploying what looks to be a stalling tactic. Wear GRX down a bit and then settle for an amount less than the headline number. In the mean time, fees for LCM tick gradually higher with time...

For those that have a legitimate interest in learning about process in these international arbitrations, suggest you look at GRX. Yesterday they received their award from the tribunal (after an almost 2 year wait from the time of hearing). They now move to the enforcement stage of proceedings.

If it turns out to be a win it will be material:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02863593-6A1229949&v=fc9bdb61fe50ea61f8225e24ce041a0e155a9400

That we can both agree on…

What I am more skeptical of is the partner dispute. Yes the company has won in a legal sense, but recovering the cash is the tricky part here. Note this is because the dispute is with the JV partners who are slightly removed from the Slovenian government itself. Should the company recover cash out of this exercise, it’s a massive positive, but also a massive ask (in my humble opinion anyway)…

I appreciate that Kashdog and good to have a respectful discussion.

Only time will tell who is right, I choose to back a horse called "self interest."

what i meant by Slovenia having US assets, say the government owns an asset in the United states (like an ambassadors residence, not an embassy as they can not be seized), then subject to Ascent receiving a positive award and Slovenia refusing to pay, Ascent can apply to a US court to have the asset seized. UK / EU courts would have no involvement.

The "metals strategy" is dead , has been for a long time. If you fail to change with the times, you become a dinosaur, you know where that gets you in equity markets (even if you fail to admit it).

ok so lets play along with your hypothesis that EU Courts are sympathetic towards Slovenia and will not allow Ascent to seize assets (even though i don't buy into that). Does Slovenia have any assets in the United States? Probably is the answer, then your point becomes null and void. Again i am SURE Enyo law have looked into all such matters, and would not have funded this matter if it was questionable...

if you would like to educate yourself on these matters, below is very much worth watching:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr1n0oohLDo&t=1854s

Kashdog you are showing you understand little about the process AST are going through.

firstly, this is an arbitration, not a court process. So the ruling is final, no such thing as an appeal. Slovenia can request an annulment, but this is not an appeal.

yes Slovenia might refuse to pay. But then AST goes about seizing their assets held outside the country. So they will pay, question is how difficult they will make this process. I can count many cases of companies getting cash out of poverty stricken African governments, going after a EU government, much easier.

and forget about the metals business its not going to happen, so stop banging on about it...

of co**** enyo law do not win everything. no lawyer does. but there is a huge difference you are missing between the two cases.

enyo law was paid to represent the libya investment authority. it was fee for service, nothing more. they got paid win lose or draw. if enyo did not take that job, it just would have gone to another legal firm.

in the case of ascent, enyo are risking their own capital, and don't get paid unless they do win. big difference. they are taking an implied view on the strength of the case.

and no there will be no "censure and a fine." the only thing the icsid tribunal can award is damages, nothing more, nothing less. if they win, the question is how much?

As much as anyone wants to heap crap on the board of directors, make sure you form an independent view.

After all, is that not what Enyo Law did for themselves? They looked at the merits of the claim, decided to risk their own money in pursuit of it, and only get paid out on success? Putting your money where your mouth is important...

Well these guys stated business was lower than normal because of reduced volatility. It looks like we have the polar opposite right now! Anticipating a strong September quarter...

Pay day:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02832265-6A1217609&v=70bc033a22188bdfefb8a0b8ad3c24897ef2837d

I am well across the state of play at PAT.L ;)

as per my forewarning, that news about Indiana Resources dropped in the latest RNS (the final item)...

We have to wait until the end of the month it looks. I suspect a settlement number has been agreed, and Indiana are awaiting the transfer of the cash before announcing...

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02824549-6A1214480

I budget a profit of US $18M on this deal on an investment of US $4.5M so likely a chunky one.

As a betting man, expect the news release tomorrow provided Indiana Resources issue their news…

News incoming:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02823558-6A1214083

Trial starts Monday

https://www.4bc.com.au/podcast/the-class-action-against-queensland-electricity-prices/

For an example on how NOT to run a litigation funding business, look no further that Omni Bridgeway. Trading like its going out of business. I understand they have different fund structures to LCM, but i found it telling that they are up to fund 6 and cumulative performance fees to date are only ~$14M. LCM has previously charged a $15M performance fee on a single investment.

back to LCM, Queensland Energy class action goes to trial at the start of June. Do they settle prior to trial???

When I think about it, Harry Adams has probably been considered an insider and unable to trade his shares when he left the company, because he would have been in possession of information not in the public domain. The first opportunity for him to trade would be when the market was informed of the full year results, enabling him and the former CFO to sell their shares if they so desired. We shall see…