Member Info for WiseOldFool

Starting to wish I was a part of this famed Green Box Brigade/Crew as it sounds pretty cool!
I fear I may have just missed their most important day of the year just two weeks ago on 4/20 and that is a shame indeed.

It is a disgusting seeing this board become a place for vitriolic diatribe. Can we not just bring the conversation back to the company that brought us to this board - I think some may have forgotten that you're actually here because of "Canadian Overseas Petroleum Limited" not just to say silly and nasty things back and forth.
I believe EVERYBODY here expects to see an increase in SP/MC and to all turn a profit at some point (I'm even including my *besty* Gold in that statement).

People on here are literally just arguing with each other because the level of profit people expect differs so substantially.

Morning AJEP, thanks for the response.
I do believe you may be over complicating the calculation. I would suggest dividing their MC by our amount of shares would suffice. 332.000,000 / 244,449,464 = £1.358.

Regarding the recoverable figure you've stated that does seem quite high but I assume this is factoring in us getting CNOOC who has 16.66% interest in the Deep Unit, acquiring the leases we don't currently have where circa 12% of the oil discovery is and roughly 50% recoverable rate. It will however take years to fully prove out the field. Best to work towards 8%-20% recoverable rates while the field is being proved as the rate will depend on how it responds to Miscible Flooding.

AJEP I'm not sure what you are basing your comparison off, could you elaborate on how you got yo uour figure?

If it were based on their present MC to ours then that is a multiple of 6.64 (332m vs 50m) so 20.25 x 6.64 = £1.34. Their share price is incorporating 18k BOPD and 153m in booked reserves (of course these are simple metrics, plenty other things to factor in such as debt ratios, royalties etc)

Good to see the Canadian courts have done their bit. Now we look to the US courts to get their bit done, the next 8-12 weeks should provide us with a fair amount of news and it will be good to see where we stand afterwards.

There has certainly been some lofty SP figures thrown around this weekend, best to manage your expectations by doing your own research and working out your own exit strategy :)
By comparison BP has a market cap of £76 billion with equivalent of 17 Billions barrel of oil in proved reserves and we all know BP have a lot more than just their production in their business model.
Personally, I would be happy if we could get to a point where we can draw comparisons with a company such as I3 Energy. Perhaps in a year or so.

With some investors expecting to see the Motion filed on CUDA very soon it will be interesting to see how the SP plays out this afternoon as our market will be closed on Monday but businesses in US and Canada will be open as normal.
The potential for an update to FTIs site coming tonight or Monday could worry those with short positions, perhaps they will close them out come the end of today.

Stas20, I'll let you in to a little secret, I am not old and I am most certainly not wise however I chose to question Gold not for my benefit but for the benefit of those who may be younger and less experienced in share dealing and how these boards work because they need to learn not to take boards like this as gospel, people need to learn to do their own research and come to their own conclusions.
There are some fantastic sources of information on these boards however everything has to be taken with a pinch of salt as there will always be other variables not included in peoples calculations and people are often too quick to make posts, attempting to mask them as factual when they are in fact opinion.
However this guy seems to spout the usual deramping you would see anywhere, when they can't come up with solid negatives, the word "placing" or "dilution" is used to try and induce fear in those less educated in the workings of the stock market and influence others to their own benefit and when questioned on their views they are incapable of providing any kind of detailed response as to how they come to their conclusions and often resort to the usual placing, bad CEO stuff to deflect and will often go AWOL if a share is blue but will be posting every 10 minutes for an entire work day when the share is red.

Sorry Gold you think I live in fairly land thinking that the new find could add 10x reserves to our existing reserves?
Explain something to me, exactly what damage do you think that COPL is going to do to itself that people don't stand to profit if bought at current SP?

Gold believe it or not I couldn't give a hoot what happens to the share price today or even tomorrow! I'm not a short, I'm not a swing trader, I'm a LTH and I couldn't be more comfortable having money in COPL. As is everyone else who has learnt how to hold on to a share. I also have moral fortitude, unlike yourself.

Gold001 - Thanks for your super insightful and informative post. Good to see you are able to back up the claim of an dilution event for the purchase of a company which may not be sold to us while we have over $20mil in the bank! Great amount of information provided by you.

Thanks also for making us aware that a small developing company investing heavily to stabilise MF and increase production is going to make a loss.

Informative posts such as yours are EXACTLY what investors should read!... Said nobody ever.

Shaa/Beesty I believe the courts have control of what can and cannot be announced and the administrator will not be going to the courts until they are ready for the deal to be signed off. Ergo, I do not expect news until the end of the month/early April.

Bridgedogg I would not expect to hear anything on CUDA until the deal is signed off by the courts. However, if we have failed in our bid and Art succeeds in finding his pen, he may want to tell us beforehand that we're not the bid winner and the previous fundraise is being spent on X Y and Z. More chance of pigs flying IMO.
Don't expect any news prior to Year End results and then you won't be disappointed :)

"In two of the Unit Operating Agreements - BFU Deep and Barron Flats Shannon there are two other partners – Cuda Oil and Gas Limited and CNOOC"
Taken from the 2021 prospectus (Page 20)
https://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/COPL-2021-Project-Jackson-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf

There are a lot of people on here who seem to worry so much about the day to day price action here. Everybody knows what is going on in the world at the moment, so needless to say it is going to be turbulent in many ways and the stock markets are no exception.
I am relaxed about my investment in COPL as I believe are all long term holders. This is because we know to expect financial results and an update on CUDA by the end of March these will help the fog around this share gradually disperse.

At some point we will also see a CPR which will reinforce Arts OIIP estimates for Dakota and Frontier and with any luck we may even see something added to our reserves, at least for Dakota and we know that we will be drilling in to the Frontier later this year.

If we add to this any production updates and their effects on our hedge and our ability to take advanced of the rising oil prices, the pipeline to be built once CUDA is resolved, potential refinancing and any agreements for the new discovery then this share is starting to look like it has little downside.

People need to relax, learn how to truly be the LTH that so many claim to be and avoid being emotionally attached to the daily fluctuations in share price. Know what you own and have confidence that we will see an appreciation in market cap at some point.

Intothedeep - 4th February is the "bids due" date. I would not expect to hear too much about it just yet, the bidder for the Canadian assets hasn't been announced yet and bids were due last Friday.
I expect to hear once the PSA is signed towards the end of the month (as per the sales process document), if we are lucky then the process may advance more quickly.

Constant talk about placings again and again. People on this board need to stop allowing the traders to control the narrative, it is plain and simple to see.

Think LOGICALLY about why we need a placing at this point in time. Heres are some reasons why we DON'T;

- Raised $8mil for CUDA, if we don't succeed in our bid we then have this at our disposal for CC and BFU (with the new discovery, CUDA is no longer an essential purchase)
- We have the $20mil accordion facility we can use
- We have $4mil owed by CUDA which, if it is sold to somebody else, will need to be paid to us and will be sorted within the next 2-3 months
- Drilling FED Deep isn't until August, so no requirement for funds on this for a few months
- Cash in bank at $9.5mil as at 30th September 2021
- CPR likely due within the next few months which would add value for shareholders (if there is an imminent SP increase where is the logic in raising right now?)
- Further works at CC and BFU on hold until CUDA sorted
- Potentially a JV to come

Add to the above that we are not seeing the typical behaviour from placing shares, no large balancing trades at the end of the day and shares not selling very often in huge numbers over the past few days.

Now please, Ironside and all other scaremongers, give me some reasons for Arthur make a placing at this exact point in time.

Thanks for the reply Wookie. Would you mind elaborating on your comment about "certain price actions" please? What is it that you are seeing? I am struggling to see something that I feel the need to be concerned about, so I welcome another perspective.

Personally what I am seeing is a huge jump in the past 2 weeks, follow by a correction/gap fill prior to the next move up. I've seen it hundreds if not thousands of times and I'm sure most people have. It is what happens in probably 90% of all shares which experience large jumps in a short period of time. Nothing can go up all of the time, regardless of how undervalued it may be, these things take time.

Wookie your posts seem to have turned a little negative recently. I'm pretty sure I've seen your name around here for a long while and thus expected you to be a LTH, can I ask why you hold so much concern over daily SP movements?
If you're a long then it would be ridiculous to be concerned about daily fluctuations in SP. Longs know the worth and longs know that fair value always comes out eventually.

I'm also seeing alot of people suggesting placings, those same people, only a week or so ago were suggesting a share price north of £5.00, so I direct a question towards those -
If we were diluted 20% you would expect share price to reach £4.00 instead of £5.00. So are you not happy with a return of 10-12x? How many multibags do you guys require to be comfortable with your investment?

People bemuse me.

Thank you all. Canada got a snippet of information that we didn't get! Sedar wasn't somewhere I thought to look.

55% to 85% though so it is quite a big variance and to me only shows CUDA MUST have some of the working interest for Fed Deep.

I keep seeing talk of 85% WI in Barron Flats Federal Deep and talk of how CUDA is irrelevant so Yacht (or anyone else who keeps quoting this 85% figure), please, save me some time and point me in the direction that you find this reference because after hours of hunting I can find zero references to us having 85% WI in Barron Flats Federal Deep.
In fact the figure I have found, which is stated on page 20 of the prospectus is a lot lower, 55.56% to be exact. Assumedly CUDA and CNOOC both have an interest in it.

In my view we ideally want to purchase the WI from CUDA so that we can then do a JV with enhanced oil reserves once proven, it would be a very valuable move. In the short term, the increased revenue from CUDA would also help to ensure our books are balanced and once AM knows whether we have secured CUDA he will be able to focus on increasing production at Baron Flats Shannon and Cole Creek.

I would not expect to see any TR1s just yet. It is likely many institutions have bought COPL shares over the past few weeks but I imagine they are all taking their time accumulating, they only have to report once they have stopped buying on a daily basis.