Member Info for WindInTheWillows

Id be less excited if this had hovered around 12-14p mark, but headed towards 6p or possibly 5p is certainly exciting - can shuffle more into ISA (all remaining, in fact) and less than half the price I was considering. And then will fill up in anticipation of a partner by end H2 or early Q1 2027. That is worth the wait. Blood in the streets and all that...

Foot, your cognitive dissonance is on display once again. Remember in January when I tried to explain to you a placing was being worked and JoshW7 and yourself and the rest rallied against that assertion, and then a £4.5m placing rns landed right on cue. Need I say more. Where was your nous then? And the many times before. You are tiresome in your love hate relationship with years of dilution over and over and over again.

As I said, and will again, there are 350m shares to dispose of. They will be used. Paul has all but told you this in the recent interview. Your endless dissonance loop will continue to reset time after time, Im quite sure.

Try engaging like Mr G did instead of seeing ghouls.

A deal will likely be done, but the devil will be in the details. Theres a long time to a maybe MOU6 to get 350m shares into the market one way or another. Its more of a how than an if imho.

Im curious to see how it plays out.

Keith there is nothing stopping a farmout of the subsidiary and a separate deal for headroom equity worked in somehow. Also, 'Paul has made it clear' is not necessarily a phrase I would put much faith in. Might be his intention but we could ping back and forth about all the times that Paul has acted irregularly. I know you see this as a possible deal where everything falls perfectly into place but keeping dry powder for the unexpected is par for the course here. And 350m shares will in my opinion be worked in to whatever is brewing, in part or all. We'll either be diluted at asset level or equity or both. You think just asset, but both is my expectation. SP may even get back above the 10p you stated it wouldnt fall below back around MOU 2, if my memory serves me correctly? Wouldnt that be a thing.

MrG

As per your last sentence - its those who lean towards scepticism these last 6 years and sold the news and sold the gains who have done the best. I dont say no deal, rather it is unlikely to be the Disney deal most are hoping for. Market is hard to convince, mostly sells even good news, and will see equity highligh (probably) as a part of this possible deal and the associated price discount and simply cack their britches as the primal newskool response. Just how it goes. I lean the other way to you but have hedged in my own way (and sold the last pump) so not too fussed.

Might not be long to find out.

Trinidad looks like it will chug along in a better oil price environment for some time and if SC 3 comes in then this will support PRD nicely, but no meaningful return for 6-12 months. For Trinidad to be the bread-winner it could be things have to go to plan. Not often does oil go to plan. But its in the lap of the Gods. Stranger things have happened.

Morocco - the real 'issue' as I see it is the 350m headroom. Weighing up whether a deal can be made without any potential partner asking for the whole 350m as discounted equity is a big unknown. That vs upside of drilling skill/prowess vs percentage stake on top of likely equity and how that would (a) look to the market on an rns day, (b) be structured etc etc will determin the SP reaction. The market is tepid and mostly staying in cash but a fiscally stable play in Morocco could be seen as attractive with the right partner.

I think that whoever is at the table will want their pound of flesh and probably all 350m of headroom at a discount. If so there is Pauls 'unknown' funding for Africa and his gas carrot between Europe and Middle East taken care of. He has dropped a massive hint on this in his interview. But the SP will hit the placing price while market weighs up the rest of the details and risks of success on whatever deal may be on the table.

One safeguard is Griffiths has 40m shares so he would presumably want to protect his position.

Whatever discussion is going on I cannot see PRD not being squeezed quite hard. Personal view is Griffiths gets something over the line which involves discounted equity and another 25% or so of the licence. Asset dilution will occur this time imo

A smaller slice of a bigger pie with a partner with bigger guns might be good if it works. Maybe PRD get some capex costs back to boot, but not in a million years can I see them getting 25m back.

Its going to be a Curets egg whose value will ultimately rest on the drill all supported by a revised ITR based on data, yes, but unfortunately no flowing gas so far.

On this basis I have reduced my holding by 25% but the remaining stock now all held in ISA to offsett the potential tax sting, but if it all goes well that taxless future would more than make up for the reduced position.

If a deal is announced I expect to be able to buy back that 25% at the equity discount price that may (likely) form part of any deal, which I think would/may be 2.5p

For all intents it will be a placing but as part of a deal.

Market will decide on the deal.

Drill will decide PRDs fate.

And the sell down has gone from disappointing to exciting. Gifted stock again at these levels for a long position is welcome. Looks like someone being squeezed for cash or over-leveraged elsewhere. Thanks - I'll take some!! 🎁

Much can and likely will happen. War resolves itself and business as usual, ASX, renewed sentiment, Li price boom... many potential catalysts. 20p I agree is a given on partner and by end of Q4, but Im leaning towards investors seeing a stable country, an in-demand resource, and potentially a partner with deep pockets to finance this whole project. Dont forget that in this climate an opportunistic bid could and may well land. CTL are advanced DLE and they could get a bid at any time. What would that be? I imagine 40 - 60p. Lots of surprises. Of course, could go the other way but the derisking has been steady and as stated the PFS and CEOL wrapped up in line with predictions before end of Q1. Solid progress. Poor market environment for minnows. That will change, always does.

I stay with my 40p by end H2

There is a markets destabilising war going on, global chaos onnon hand, and on the other a massive SP anchor seller totally gone, and a CEOL and PFS in the bag, and we are holding the 8-9p range. In a better environment, without having been raked over coals be Metals One, we would be sitting at 20p. Ignacio was curiously bullish on the partner by close of Q4. This has been long in the making. When markets are fearful and going to cash that is the time to hoover up such undervalued stock.

This ticker presents a very asymmetric 12 month trade. Its a 2 bagger and possible 5 bagger with a fair wind. What are interest rates at currently... someone do inform me 😅.

This is a buy, and if we havent all blown each other up by the end of 2026 then Im sure it will be looking rather heathly here. I call 30-40p once partner announced Q4.

Makes total sense for M1 to sell today ahead of a known event in a risk off market.

In all honesty they just did us a huge favour. Takes the brakes off to large volume selling and opens door to opportunity if PFS is received well.

Im leaning towards a buy.

CTL is a non-producing miner with some elements of CEOL still to be finalised (even if formality) with an opportunistic investor weighing the shareprice with 20m of stock being dumped. The world is in an energy war and many are staying in cash or switching to oil & gas. CTL is hugely undervalued but its not surprising in this climate. As Daltry mentions SML has been battered and their news was priced in.

I dont believe CTLs PFS is priced in per se as no one really knows what picture it will paint. Rather a large holder has dumped 20m in 3 huge tranches destabilising the price, this is why we did not get past 20p on ceol admission rns.

Do not forget that these 20m were taken on by an opportunist. There is long term view appetite here.

Its a very asymmetric trade opportunity. But no knowing if this is a floor. Likely to be, but... ?

A partner will come on board and by the end of 2026 things will look very different. Depends if retail investors have the stomach for the wait and the small remaining risks.

PFS will be revealing. Now Metals 1 are out may simply rocket on PFS release. Market is quite irrational both ways, often.

Id say hold, but very tempting to fill up down here for the 6 months ahead.

Non-producing miners are down today. Just noise and poor timing in a news vaccum. Buy more. See it as a gift 🎁

goodness. aim, main, it makes no difference and its easily forgot. they act like aim. the real world difference is no nomad oversight and company can do what they like with less scrutiny. aim is just a synonym for small companies that easily rinse pis with placings etc. just as many main market ****cos as on aim. the rest of the post stands.

the price is 2.9p. focus on that. ask yourself why. and ask what is coming in the nearterm and why market sold this interview.

Madman

Lets presume a very best case scenario that Paul makes a deal for farm out for 10-20% carry on MOU6 and maybe one more appraisal, and maybe a few million to cover some previous costs. That leaves very little to fulfil any future plans in the next year or two, and certainly no special dividends. Since no gas has flowed and the risk is high that it is either not going to or is compartmentalised or any other scenario rendering MOU6 non-viable, I dont think it reasonable to PRD would get a better deal than this. MOU6 costs wont be particularly high, but PG will get squeezed on this last throw of the die. He wants out. We all know this. He wanted to be out for 50p back in the Sunday Roast in 2022. Go listen to it. Now that wont happen. Its carry and some costs Id say. Jurassic is not even in the frame for years now. Its MOU1-6 and thats it... out.

The company doesnt have much runway currently. Paul says he has no idea how he plans to fund the future acquisitions. You dont go into a deal whereby you try agree finance or farmout on a risky well outcome without (a) backing up your balance sheet in case of failure, and (b) showing muscle that you can still raise capital (and get capital) as insurance against late changes to terms, bullying etc etc etc. You could add c, d, e, f... all the way to z to that list.

He has 350,000,000 shares headroom left for a reason.

The notion that PRD gas vetures will get back all Morocco costs for some small percentage of the Moroccan licence, while still calling shots, all based on one lonewolf ITR is pure fluffdream territory. Certainly wont retain 51%, so will almost certainly lose control of any ringfence licence area. Do you doubt such an outcome?

The 'funding' of MOU6 is not via placement. The insurance policy on your negotiations would be the reason for a placing. I dont even blame him.

You'll be picking up PRD stock at 2.5 based purely on the risk of it now. Market has spoken Id say! Hardly much of a gap to fill down. 1.8p at worst, 2.5p more likely.

Thems the apples 🍏 This is AIM. Investors dont like these interviews. They dont like even the smalles risk of placings. PG just never learns it seems. Thats my take. Next week or so will be telling.

Draft. I havent been here day in day out just adding zero. I call these things as I see them. My reasoning is reasonable. As is my assessment of intent both explicit and subtle. I have not said PRD will not succeed at some point, just that it seems clear as day what is occuring

By the same token you state I am 'dermaping' you need to level the same claim in reverse at the permanent positive rosy tinted specs posts and tweets by the same names. 800% dilution. SP same place as 2020.

Calling placings is not hard.

I'll leave you to it. Go read JoshW7 response to me the DAY before the last placing. For balance.

The next few weeks may present an opportunity, or not. Make your own minds up.

The same forward selling that occured before the last placing is occuring now. As well as the fact that Griffiths is trying to negotiate a deal for an asset that has flowed exactly zero gas. PRD has around £3m cash at bank (estimate) and needs leverage for any deal to demonstrate they can go it alone. Right now they have next to zero, if any, significant leverage. Trinidad is months if not years from fruition. This interview was to create a buzz to support the selling. I present evidence of EVERY previous interview followed by a placing.

In fact the forward selling has already been going on for a few days. Now its much more obvious.

This is placing fodder. 350m left of the 500m headroom. They will use it.

Absolutely ZERO reason for this interview otherwise.

Straight out of the PRD placing playbook.

Incoming. This interview was not for PIs.

When will you learn 🤦‍♂️

A nice £1m there. What this reveals is there is no impediment from the new govt. Rule of law in play. Non-producing miners are taking a general knocking due to risk off from wider macro-political situation, many going to cash, many going to oil and gas stocks. CTL is simply suffering some poor timing blowback amd jitters from Metals1 still holding 6m trigger finger stock, I suppose. Significant investors/partners will be keen to thumb through the project details over the next week ot two after PFS released. There may be some slow market cap appreciation but at some point Cutfield will deliver and one of the many NDA suitors will cut a deal and, well.... better be invested when that particular news lands.

This is a great time to collect stock at the edges. May dip lower, may not. Seems mostly algo trading so often bids lower and lower. Suspect may get a shot at 9p but purely speculating. Either way, its looking very nice for a 6-12m buy down here.

The desperate cross ramp posters. Gotta love them, also 😅. Dalt you are a true gem x

Daltry, I have no issue with keeping the buy-high-sell-low twits like you unfiltered. Its a prescient reminder of the opportunity in the market that there are participants such as yourself seemingly not quite having a full grasp of the variables. Keep posting. Im sure many find it slightly amusing, as do I.

Didnt think I would get to rebuy in 10p range. What an absolute gift 👌👌 Thanks to whoever was selling down here. Probably Daltry after getting spiked on the CEOL rns day. I'll just call him Faltry, maybe Faulty. Apt. One day he'll get it right, although fairly doubtful of that to be fair.

PFS will paint the picture for institutional investors amd partners. The market has been told many times that significant players will not take positions without PFS. Recall the number of NDAs and just looks a the global macro outlook for lithium. USA and Europe gagging for safe zone investments for battery supply and EV. Rebounding Li prices.

For 10-12p. Its simply hugely hugely asymmetric and a screaming buy (with all the usual caveats on AIM)

I'll admit I thought we would hit 20p last week on ceol news but seems our recently partially-departed investor Metals One had other ideas. Had to sell down in line with the changing market by the hour. But now bought back said stock. Delighted is an understatement.

BUY.