Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I’m afraid I disagree. The placing would have been largely taken by IIs; simply not worth it to take say a million shares and sell short before the placing was announced. I don’t disagree that AIM can resemble the Wild West.....however finncap and Numis would be well aware of market regulations as would any reputable II taking part in the placing. If the shares had been placed with “hot money” offshore accounts then it may well be a different story. However I can’t imagine Synairgen needed to go down that route to get the placing away.
I don’t think that would be the case. If you read the disclaimer in the presentation given to potential investors it points out that they were being made “insiders” and couldn’t under market regulations trade in the shares until the placing was made public.
There seems to be some frustration with the falling SP which is distracting from what is going on behind the scenes.
To me it looks as though the “cluster of pharma companies” that the company were talking with didn’t come up with the valuation that Synairgen put on their business. Rather than buckle and accept any offer they have determined to move ahead alone. A ballsy approach and one that gives me confidence.
As part of the fundraise, various IIs would have been given one-on-one presentations from the company. They would have been able to ask questions about a variety of subjects (timing of P3, probability of success, future JV or takeover etc) and based on the presentation the £80m fundraise was significantly oversubscribed.
I cant imagine that these investors are looking at the SP on an hourly basis; they have bought in based on the end game and not where the SP stands at on any particular day. It’s what investors do........traders are the only people who fixate on daily movements. If Numis have done their job properly the shares will have been placed with investors and not “quick buck merchants”.
The science stacks up, the company is quite rightly getting on with proving it with a larger P3 and isn’t spending time on anything else. I’m happy with that and suggest anyone holding as an investor ignores short term movements in the SP.
Slightly different view for what it’s worth.
Page 28 of the Offer Document -Risk Factors. “.....in the event of positive Phase III trials, it is likely that the Company will have to consider partnering with other organisations......”
I believe Synairgen had discussions with various suitors which didn’t hit the mark in terms of the company’s valuation. The “go it alone” strategy in my opinion was driven by a reluctance to sell “on the cheap” and I fully expect a deal to be done on a takeover when the Phase III trial comes to a successful conclusion.
It’s a ballsy approach which confirms to me the confidence that the BoD have in the product and their ability to manage a successful Phase III trial.
For anybody interested in the risks inherent in an investment here you should read the Risk Factors in the Offer Document and see where the Company itself perceives the risks to lie.
I hope the link I posted works?
FYI anyone can sign up for their research; you don’t need to be a client.
https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=a4204140-a195-47e1-a9ea-e27eb73f255a
Just took advantage and topped up......can’t see any new information which would change the view I hold of this share.
Good news travels slower than bad so the absence of any news since the Manic Monday RNS reassures me.
Just my opinion.
If the company decide to licence I can’t see any reason why those payments won’t simply pass to the shareholders. Synairgen isn’t working on a pipeline of potential drugs so cash isn’t needed for development. Given the age and profile of the directors I assume this is the crowning glory of their careers.
I can’t see why the preference wouldn’t be for an outright takeover? If the COPD results are as we expect there is little risk for any acquirer. It will be a commercial negotiation around both sides assessment of the NPV based on pricing, market penetration etc
I am making the assumption that a multi jurisdiction licensing deal could take some time to conclude whereas the need for the product is now.
Just my view but I believe an outright acquisition is more likely. Either outcome crystallises value but the current institutional/large shareholders I believe are looking for a capital gain as opposed to an income stream. Is anyone aware of a listed biotech whose sole asset is an income stream from a drug that they have licensed? I would be interested in looking at valuations. Thanks
Hi Everyone
I have been buying all the way down from over £2 to £1.53. For what its worth, I think the company will be significantly re-rated following the StemPrintER spin-off so have no issues with getting in on the high side. The value of StemPrintER will hopefully surprise on the upside given the test results to date. That should leave a very attractive entry price for a portfolio that looks promising. The placing has settled any issues with me about any future need to raise finance.
Thankfully this doesn’t seem to be a “day traders” share and the board’s posts have helped me with my research....
Hopefully good news over the next few weeks.
Apunter2
Thanks and I’ve broken my promise by replying lol
My background was in investment banking and I understand securitisation having been involved in structuring and sell them and thought I could add something here. Unfortunately it seems that when the crowd want to blow a share price higher any discussion/questions which could be construed as unhelpful is classified as de-ramping.
If SYME have a working tested platform which does as they say and they can get the securitisations away at a cost which makes the model work I’ll be the first to congratulate them and everyone holding the shares.
Definitely my last post or I’ll get more abuse
Good luck everyone
Andre
I’m a long term investor who doesn’t see the need to post unless i cant see what everyone else sees in a share and i try to fill my knowledge gaps by asking questions. Ive had some sensible responses to my questions from several people and outright abuse from others. That tells me that the majority here are just chasing a share higher without really understanding the risks and hope to be out before the music stops, which is fair enough but that’s not how i invest.
Last post from me on this board.....good luck everyone.
Andre
Ive researched and i cant find any information on the “platform”? Ive looked at the regulatory filings, watched the CEOs interviews etc. All it says is platform. I cant find who developed it, who owns any IP, is it a platform that can be easily replicated etc etc.
Thanks for a civil reply. Ive just tried to ask a few questions on areas that i cant find answered in any of the interviews with the CEO.
I wont post again as it seems to enrage the majority if you ask questions.
Thanks for the advice. Interesting that by asking a few questions you get such vitriol.
WhiteWolf
Does the platform currently exist? No mention of capitalised development costs or IP protection?
Did i miss it?
If you can get an A+ from one of the bigger agencies on that basis they will be doing very well.
Might be easier to go down a peer-to-peer model for the riskiest slice of any securitisation.....that model works in terms of risk but may be limited in depth.
I haven’t invested.....simply using the board to ask some questions to see if i have missed anything.
They weren’t concerns they were questions which i was hoping someone may have answers to.
I will leave the board in piece and wish everyone invested good luck.
WhiteWolf
I get all that.....perfectly sensible. But where is the USP; any lender could do that. The securitisation market is huge and systems are already in place to securitise many forms of asset. Why hasn’t this model been done before. What do SYME have that nobody else has ever been able to develop?
Calamari
Agreed on that. If you look at the placing document you will see that no assets or liabilities were acquired. What was acquired and listed was an idea or concept. I cant see any justification for the valuation.
If the “platform” is in existence and ready to go and one smallIsh securitisation had been rated and placed with investors done and the process tried and tested as the inventory is sold etc etc then you have a business to value. Until then its just hope.
Mick
That’s what the Agencies will model and depending on the mix of clients and mix of assets they will try to model that risk. To achieve the ratings required to sell the notes somebody is going to have to take a chunky first loss note to protect the other notes.