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I took a look at PUR and was very tempted to buy in as they seem to have a compelling story. However their market cap was about £200 million (now 219) and they made CNR look so undervalued in comparison, I just couldn't make myself press buy.
Hi GB, who is the largest FTSE silver miner? I rather like silver's future prospects so would be interested to check it out. I realise that I am being lazy in asking you for a shortcut, hope you don't mind.
Apologies Ash, I did have a nagging doubt about the accuracy of my last post regarding Atalaya so I did , belatedly, check online. Whilst I was in error about Atalaya's retained stake in Cyprus please believe what I wrote about Adams.
I checked on the Companies House website, Venus has 4 directors, to my absolute horror I note that Adams is one of them. I will now be giving very serious thought to selling my Ariana shares much sooner than I had intended. I have always felt very comfortable with my investment here but sadly that is no longer the case.
Ash, I'm fairly certain that Venus has nothing to do with Atalaya. If my memory serves me right Venus was an earlier unsuccessful project run by that ghastly man Harry Adams. He then moved his reverse Midas touch to Emed where he applied his scam tactics to dilute and consolidate shareholders whilst enriching himself and achieving nothing. He was eventually given the boot and Emed became Atalaya where new capable management transformed it into a successful Cu producer. Alas, Adams wasn't done, he transferred his scam tactics to Kefi where he diluted and consolidated shareholders into oblivion, strung them along and enriched himself.
The man has a long career of enriching himself whilst achieving absolutely nothing for the companies and shareholders who employ him. He is a grade 1 scam artist and I pray that Kerim will not be duped by him. I will be watching developments with Venus very closely.
Hi VanVan, not altogether sure but it may have something to do with the fact that they have about 2.5million oz at high grade and at least half of which is near surface, lots of drill targets to prove up more gold. Oh and the possibility of a toll refining deal at a nearby Calibre plant with spare capacity to bring in early cash flow and the fact that Rio Tinto have entered Nicaragua via a tie up with Calibre who have been empowered to buy up late stage gold assets for Rio. I'll stop there as the list could go on and on but it is off topic. Suffice to say, yes Ariana is undervalued but Condor isn't overvalued.
goneawol, that is a great find, thank you for sharing.
There is sooo much positive information in that interview.
One of the stand outs is that Condor have placed a tentative bid on second-hand plant!!!!!!!
Also money will need to be raised but key shareholders will maintain or increase %.
When asked if key shareholders would fund capex Mark had a grin 6ft wide.
At last things look as though they could be gaining momentum, it's been a long road but perhaps we are nearing our destination.
Tester, all very nicely laid out there. Even the long suffering lth enjoy the little boosts provided by such posts.
I would add that Rio Tinto have entered Nicaragua, as someone on here pointed out they would have carried out 12 to 18 months of dd. They didn't decide to go ahead on a whim, they obviously saw something that they liked hence the tie up with Calibre and the mandate for them to buy assets. I can't see them being interested in early stage exploration projects and the accompanying long lead times. I don't know how many permitted, undeveloped 1million oz+ gold deposits there are in Nicaragua but I would guess that the list is very short.
Too much time on my hands today. All of my figures are back of an organic humous pack rough calcs.
The plan is for cnr to produce 100k oz/pa at aisc of roughly $700. At current gold price and after capital is paid that gives us free cash flow of about $100 million.
Sorry ggp lovers, I aren't picking on you I just want to use the company to highlight the latent potential here in cnr.
We don't know what the future production will be from Havieron as they are nowhere near that stage. For arguments sake let's assume that it will be the same as cnr at 100k oz. Aisc will be higher than cnr for several reasons; the deposit is in Australia where wages are higher, it will be an underground mine so is more labour, time and capital intensive and lower volumes of ore will be produced. The ore also needs trucking to Newcrest's plant. So being conservative let's put aisc at $1000.
At current gold price of $1700, 100k oz at $1000 aisc gives free cash flow of $70 million. Not bad you say, not as good as cnr's $100 million but still not bad. Hold on a minute, by that stage ggp will hold a maximum of 30% of the project.
What is 30% of $70 million? Oh dear, it's only $21 million.
So how is a potential future cash flow of $21 million currently valued at $300 million while a potential future (much nearer future) cash flow of $100 million is valued at $30 million.
That seems a little upside down to me.
The potential for share price/market cap increase here is phenomenal, note I say potential.
We own 100% of our project, we have 1m ounces at shallow depth permitted, some bonanza grades have been reported, potential for 5m ounce district, low aisc etc etc (it gets tedious listing all of the positives as there are just so many), and a rather ridiculous market cap of £30m.
In comparison ggp have a market cap of £300 million+/-. Wow there must be something really, really extra special about ggp right? Err, well actually no there isn't. Yes they have a farm in agreement with Newcrest, well there you go then that justifies the outrageous market cap. Err no, if Newcrest fulfills its farm in obligations they will earn 70% of the project, that obviously only leaves ggp with 30%. Ah you say, they are encountering fantastic grades, and yes they are. A few bonanza intercepts do not make an economical project. Not to mention the depth of the intercepts, they will need to go underground to get at the ore and that costs. Ok they don't need to build a processing plant so that will save money. Now I may be wrong on this one but I can't even find mention of a jorc compliant resource.
My feeble mind can't help thinking that one doesn't get a lot for your money with ggp whilst in contrast you get a great deal at a rock bottom price with cnr.
My point is that ggp's market cap is irrationally high whilst cnr's is irrationally low. That could change, we could become the latest hot property, the giddy kippers and rainbow chasers could descend upon cnr. (I know that there is money to be made by trading and through momentum).We could, one day, have an irrationally high market cap.
The trouble with this martial law is that one has way too much time to dream!
John your glass truly is less than half full these days. Yes production guidance is down as we all expected but we are also debt free. The prospective partner is effectively laying out x million now to buy themselves 51% of a cash machine. Recent advances mean that the cash machine will be paying out for longer. Surely that makes it worth a larger upfront payment?
Anyway my glass runneth over so for now I choose to believe that we will secure a better deal. It makes me happy to think thus and reality is a psychological construct so I choose to construct a positive reality paradigm for myself. Psycho babble!
Moneymaker, you are right that we will have to wait a bit longer for this to unfold. However, from Kerim's statement;
This provides additional time to enable an even more thorough review by the Parties and coincides with significant new project developments, including the revised Resource Estimate for Kiziltepe, announced last week, and revisions to our resource for Tavsan which remains work in progress. In addition, at Tavsan we are in the process of finalising the development schedule for what is expected to be our second mine in Turkey."
A more thorough review by the parties, not just the potential partner but the parties of which we are one. He then goes on to list all of the positive developments that have taken place since the proposed deal was made public.
To me that sounds like a hint that Kerim and the gang are after a better deal, a deal that recognises the recent progress and increased value of the project. I am hungry for pie but am happy to wait a bit longer if it means a larger slice.
bunion, Harry most definitely 100% DID NOT get Emed into production. He did exactly the same as he has done here, exactly the same. He strung people along with one lame excuse after another for years. Along the way he diluted and consolidated PIs whilst richly rewarding himself. Only after he was ousted and replaced with a credible and competent CEO did the company start to make progress and come into production. Harry was the problem, Harry was removed and the problem went away.
100% fact, any Harry fans can check out Emed, now Atalaya, for themselves. Don't reply with nonsense until you verify the facts.
OB, that does sadly seem to be the pattern for Tower. I have held some of these for more years than I care to remember and due to consolidation just never bothered to offload them. Then recently my attention was grabbed and interest rekindled to such an extent that I put in a few K at 0.4p.
Clearly I am a dullard and a very slow learner. So now I chant myself to sleep with " never buy Tower shares again, never buy Tower shares again, never buy Tower shares again ".
Will I learn?