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Ruckrover,
“As has been explained, the TD valuation is what they estimate SCLP are worth TODAY considering the risks.”… it may be what TD estimate SCLP are worth today considering their perception of risks. But it is not what Scancell think they are worth. It is not - as another poster stated - a message from Scancell.
“What evidence do you have that those preclinical results are more likely than others to be replicated at the same level “. More likely and at the same higher level?! Slippery…. The point that the Moditope data is positive and unprecedented - and that consequently this increases the chances of a positive result in humans - is the whole basis of Lindy’s narrative. If you don’t agree, then little point opting for this share over dozens of others.
Bit of a slippery question, bermuda. What evidence do i have that those preclinical results are more likely than others to be replicated at the same level? … or why do I think brilliant pre clinical data has a better chance of getting a brilliant result in humans than inferior data? Come on… you don’t need me to help you there… ask
LD.
But that isn’t the right question, ruckrover.
The right question is - does unprecedented and positive mouse data have a better chance of having a positive effect in humans, than data which is not so positive?
LD and Scancell clearly believe it does, TD not so much.
It doesn’t matter how many glymab deals are signed, how good the early data is, or how unprecedented the preclinical data. The standard probabilities are applied. I really don’t think this represents Scancell’s view at all, it’s just “belt and braces” valuation work undertaken by a sell side analyst, devoid of any desire to commit.
Surely we can expect that unprecedented mouse data has a better chance of success in humans than standard data? Otherwise, I don’t really see why any of us would be interested here. Anyway, GLA and let’s hope the next update is a good one.
With respect bermuda, the whole excitement around the unprecedented data is precisely that you do not apply standard percentages to the potential outcome. I can see why trinity have done it - typical reluctance to make a decision among sell side research - but I doubt it is reflective of what Scancell think.
Bermuda, so the underlying message in the research is from Scancell and that involves applying standard percentages. But then the clear message to everyone here from Scancell is that the data is not standard but unprecedented. So which message accurately reflects their view?
Thanks for your thoughts, bermuda. But why would you apply standard percentages when the highly informed CEO/CSO has described the preclinical data as unprecedented? … “the likelihood of success percentages are standard for the stage of development”
Surely they anticipate the covidity data will be good, to be making the following read across, right near the start of yesterdays RNS? I don’t see any material change of position - someone else may want to take it forward… “Recruitment completed in COVIDITY Phase 1 clinical trial in South Africa, with safety and immunogenicity data expected in Q1 2023, providing read across to our second-generation ImmunoBody(R) platform.”
I agree testudo. Carclo operate in a growing market, and with debt and pension payments well covered by current free cash flow all that growth will fall into the laps of shareholders. Settlement relating to the cancelled contract should also improve sentiment. GLA
Fantastic risk/reward here IMO. Have fully loaded back to level when it was sub 6p a few years back. Top line growing, experienced management in place, low cyclicality sales with large medtechs… once margins normalise at target 8-9%, all of the residual profit post pension/interest payments will fall in shareholders laps.. GLA :)
Perhaps bioNTech are simply putting a flag in the earth because they know quite shortly the attention may be going elsewhere. A 15+ cancer centre trial in the nhs is likely to be taken seriously by patients, practitioners, pharmaceutical providers, pharmaceutical marketing, and ultimately government. I guess you are going to be particularly keen to get that flag in the earth if you suspect the result of said trial is going to be positive!
In fairness, we do not know yet that the U.K. government is not going to support Scancell. While I very much hope moditope works with the majority of patients, there is still likely to be a material role for individualised medication. It may well be the government plans to support both (but we need data first!)
LD at AGM asked are Biontech still interested in TCR?… “yes they are still interested, yes we can harvest them, we are doing this as we speak… they are even more interested in the vaccine though because that is a simpler and cheaper way forward”…. Ie as at end October, Biontech interested in multiple aspects of SCLP’s pipeline.