Member Info for Wiggly

Kiss, what's your view on cash and funding? Small top up from AP? Sale of Anchois? Namibia raise? Etana equity sale?

Kiss, thanks for the correction, you are correct.

By 2028 (high-case scenario):

Etana could trade 3–5 TWh/year, worth $240m–$400m

Generates $11m–$28m EBITDA

Chariot’s 34% share = $3.7m–$9.5m/year EBITDA

Valuation read-through at 10x = $37m–$95m

That’s 2–4x Chariot’s entire current market cap — from Etana alone.

With South Africa’s power crisis worsening and industrial demand surging, Etana is in the right place at the right time. Execution risk remains, but the first project is live, backed by Standard Bank and Norfund.

Chariot confirmed its Etana JV has signed a 20-year PPA for 100% of the 75MW Du Plessis Dam solar project in South Africa. This is the first project in Etana’s renewable trading portfolio to reach financial close — construction begins Q2 2025.

Why it matters:

Project will generate ~160 GWh/year → ~$13m in wholesale value

Etana will earn trading margin (5–10%) → $0.65–1.3m gross profit/year

Chariot owns 49% → $320–640k/year from this single project

Demand from industrial buyers is already oversubscribed

Etana is now moving from concept to cashflow.

With $155m guarantee backing and 20-year visibility, Etana’s platform can scale rapidly across South Africa’s broken grid.

Chariot’s 49% stake is hugely undervalued — the market still pricing in funding risk, while Etana quietly turns on a 20-year cash machine.

First project live. Many more to come. The market is missing it.

Assumptions:

Etana acts as a power trader: buys from IPPs, sells to industrial/commercial clients.

Typical trading margin: 3%–10% (depends on contract structure, risks, and load factors).

Overhead fixed costs grow modestly as volume scales.

South African C&I electricity price: ~R1.50–R2.50/kWh ($0.08–0.13/kWh)

Scenario A – Early Scale (~500 GWh/year)

Revenue: $40m (assuming $0.08/kWh x 500m kWh)

Gross margin (5%): $2m

EBITDA (post-OPEX): ~$1m–1.5m

Chariot share (49%): ~$0.5m–$0.75m/year

Valuation @ 10x EBITDA:

Etana value: $10m–15m

Chariot’s 49% = $5m–7.5m

Roughly 25–40% of current market cap

Scenario B – Mid Scale (~2 TWh/year)

Revenue: ~$160m

Gross margin (5%): $8m

EBITDA: ~$5m–6m

Chariot share: ~$2.5m–3m

Valuation @ 10x EBITDA:

Etana: $50m–60m

Chariot 49% = $25m–30m

Exceeds current market cap of Chariot alone

Scenario C – Large Scale (~5 TWh/year)

Revenue: ~$400m

Gross margin (5%): $20m

EBITDA: ~$12m–15m

Chariot share: ~$6m–7.5m

Valuation @ 10x EBITDA:

Etana: $120m–150m

Chariot 49% = $60m–75m

~3–4x current market cap — not including any gas, hydrogen or other projects

Key Upside Drivers:

South Africa’s grid opening is real — with Eskom failures and C&I demand rising

Power wheeling is cost-effective and scalable

First-mover advantage as licensed trader, already backed by Standard Bank & Norfund

Potential margin expansion from renewables, storage, or bundled energy services

Mkt Cap: ~£20m | Share Price: ~1.5p

Key assets:

49% of Etana Energy, fully funded, scaling power trading platform in South Africa

Green hydrogen & renewables platforms across Africa

Anchois gas (25%) – commercial discoveries at A1/A2, remains a strategic asset despite Energean exit

1. Etana – Strategic Platform, Fully Funded, Highly Scalable

Etana is one of the few licensed electricity traders in South Africa — a market being reshaped by grid failure and private sector reform.

$75m backing from Standard Bank & Norfund (debt + equity)

Chariot owns 49%

Business model: buy from IPPs, sell to industrial customers

Could generate $10–20m+ EBITDA in time — Chariot’s share worth multiples of current mcap

2. Anchois – Not Dead, Just Delayed

A3 well underwhelmed, Energean to exit

BUT A1 and A2 were confirmed commercial gas discoveries

Morocco still needs gas and has no significant domestic supply

With the right partner or offtake deal, Chariot’s 25% still holds real latent value

3. Market Mispricing is Clear

Etana alone arguably worth 2–4x current market cap

Market reacting to short-term funding risk, ignoring long-term platform value

Gas and hydrogen provide optionality — but power trading is the core now

Bottom Line:

> Chariot owns nearly half of a strategic, funded energy platform in a reforming $30bn market, and a gas asset with proven resource in a gas-hungry region.

At 1.5p, this is a classic deep value + catalyst setup — where even modest news flow can re-rate the equity.

Sur

If not back to char then it'll be back to Oyhm who will grant back to char.

75% on the assumption Energean return their stake (which must be a given)?

Thanks for highlighting the Bcf.

Anchois field remains a proven gas discovery despite the Anchois-3 result. Anchois-1 and 2 together encountered ~200m of net gas pay, sufficient to underpin a standalone development.

The widely quoted 637 Bcf resource predates Anchois-3 and is now partially downgraded. A conservative, post-A3 estimate of recoverable gas from Anchois-1 and 2 is in the 250–350 Bcf range.

Chariot holds a 75% interest in the Lixus licence (ONHYM 25% carried).

Recent North African gas transactions imply in-ground valuations of $0.30–$0.70/MMBtu, suggesting a gross value of $75–175 million for Anchois.

Net to Chariot: $56–131 million.

Chariot’s current market cap is $22m) with around $11m cash, implying an enterprise value of just ~$11m.

This suggests a potential 5–10x undervaluation of Anchois alone, before factoring in:

Ongoing technical work to de-risk satellite gas prospects on the Lixus licence.

Strategic options including farm-out, sale, or PPA-backed development.

Additional assets including 49% of the Etana offshore licence and frontier Namibia acreage.

Major banks capitalized Etana, with a read-through value significantly exceeding the CHAR current market cap.

As per previous post, Anchois does still have significant value and CHAR could unlod tomorrow for a multiple of current market cap.

Struggling to make sense of the current valuation.

Can anyone comment ? Let's keep it fact based

1. Anchois Gas Field – Quick Sale Value

Confirmed 2C Resources: 637 Bcf of gas (NSAI audited)

Current net value (Chariot's 30%): ~$120 million to ~$170 million, assuming a quick sale discount of 40-50%.

This represents 5x–8x upside to Chariot’s current market cap (~£18 million), providing significant potential value from existing assets.

2. Potential for Regaining Energean’s Stake

Energean currently holds a 45% stake in Anchois, but may exit the project.

If Chariot regains this stake, it could increase its ownership in Anchois to 75%, unlocking additional value.

Estimated gross value of Anchois (at $1.25/mcf) would rise to ~$600 million with Chariot’s 75% stake.

3. Etana Energy Stake (49%)

Chariot holds a 49% stake in Etana Energy, a South African renewable energy company focused on providing electricity to commercial and industrial users.

Estimated current value of Chariot’s 49% stake: £8.82 million.

In the case of a quick divestment, Chariot could realize £5.3 million to £7.1 million from the sale of its Etana stake, based on the most recent funding and market discounts.

Etana’s growth in the renewable energy sector and its secured $75 million funding package could increase Chariot’s stake value over time.

4. Cash Position

Chariot has ~£10 million in cash, following a £9 million equity raise in August 2024. This provides ample liquidity for strategic opportunities, asset development, or further project advances.

5. Morocco’s Energy Landscape

Anchois is strategically located offshore Morocco, where gas demand is strong and infrastructure is in place (Maghreb-Europe pipeline).

Morocco's energy transition and high natural gas prices support Anchois as a low-cost development project with high margins.

6. Additional Catalysts

Potential for licences (Namibia) new farm-ins, joint venture agreements, or project financing to unlock additional capital.

Conclusion:

Chariot is significantly undervalued, with the market seemingly ignoring the upside from its Anchois gas project and Etana stake. The quick sale value of the Anchois asset alone could provide 5x–8x returns on Chariot’s current market cap. Should Chariot regain full control of Anchois or divest its Etana stake, the value upside becomes even more pronounced.

Cash on hand not critical yet. See below details.

With being fully carried on Anchois and with cash preservation mode from Sept 24, I would guess +$7m Cash on hand? Most major holders have always been. Supportive, so I don't have concerns with further support. Also, I assume CHAR can raise funds vis equity in Etena?

Financial Review

The Group remains debt free and had a cash balance of US$3.6 million at 30 June 2024 (US$6.0 million at 31 December 2023) which was further increased in the post-period following the equity fundraising completed in August 2024 which raised gross proceeds of circa US$9 million.

Hydrogen and other business development costs of $1.0 million (30 June 2023: $0.9 million) comprise non-administrative expenses incurred in the Group's business development activities within the Green Hydrogen pillar, the majority of which relate to Project Nour feasibility studies and the proof of concept electrolyser project with Oort Energy and UM6P.

Other administrative expenses of US$5.1 million (30 June 2023: US$3.3 million) are higher than the prior period reflecting the scaling up of the team to progress the Loukos onshore licence and work on new venture opportunities, together with continued progress on the Transitional Power project portfolio.

Finance income of US$0.1 million (30 June 2023: US$0.2 million) is lower than the prior period due reduced foreign exchange gains on non-US$ cash.

Finance expenses of US$0.2 million (30 June 2023: US$0.02 million) are higher than the prior period reflecting the increased unwinding of the discount on the lease liability under IFRS 16, and the unwinding of the discount on the contingent consideration payable for the increased holding in Etana Energy (Pty) Limited.

Share-based payments charges of US$2.0 million (30 June 2023: US$3.9 million) are lower than the prior period due to diminishing charges on share options issued in previous periods.

We were very pleased with the support we received during our successful fundraise in August from new and existing investors

Extension of waivers until June30th, shifts some leverage back to WG.

Another bidder please

Lenders supportive = Sidara positive.

Buy

Big move.

This is a leak

Looks ready to 🚀

🚀

A competing offer is more likely than not imo.

Check AML who trade at 6x WG market cap.

They are in a much worse state financially

Agree, it is potential, but I think there is a well-reasoned investment position that would strongly suggest the deal is closed successfully.

Is the offer at 35p the best possible? If not, then it is likely that PE enter the discussion.

My view is that a deal with Sidara to be concluded while in the now inevitable suspension. Still hoping another player enters. 35p will realist small gain (my average 32.3p) and I'd hoped for more.

Fortune favours the brave. Huge potential gains for those that can buy more now and average down