Member Info for wideisland

Noble Helium didn't hang around. I guess on the upside, they will prove whether or not they can extract Helium in the area. HE1 has been a complete shambles.

https://www.gasworld.com/story/noble-helium-secures-new-drilling-rig-to-proceed-with-major-tanzania-project/2124586.article/

A hell of a lot of hysteria going on, here.
I had a valuation done June 2022 at 2.6p per share. (gas prices were broadly the same as today).
This excludes any value for the side track, which would be transformative.
I appreciate that there are other variables and that we are 7 months on, with a successful drilling program / proven gas.
Summary:
Net value: Saltfleetby £76m . Gross 2pbcf 3.18, Gross 2pmmbbl 0.2, Net 2pmmboe 5.5, unit value us$m 20, Risk 90%, net value us$m @90%, net us$m 98.8m, GBP £76m.
Lidsey £4.2m.
Total risked value: £70.7m
Shares, warrants, dilutive shares etc.
Total risked value per share 2.6p.

At these levels, in my humble opinion ANGS offers fantastic value. Even completely disregarding the other assets.

The exercise of warrants is IMHO positive, albeit some shares will be sold to mitigate risk etc, the dilution was already a known factor.
This is why I think that it is positive:
ANGS will get paid for the gas 20 days after the end of month supplied. So with gas going live beginning Sep first payments will be 20th October. This could have caused a short term cash flow issue that may have needed to be bridged. The danger was that the board may have needed to do a placing to raise funds at a discount to market. By exercising the warrants, this risk has been significantly reduced.
From the 20th October onwards ANGS will be throwing off cash. Now that the first well is producing consistently, it is likely that Well A4 will become operative as everything is ready to go. Well A4 will potentially double the output. Very exciting times.

Gas storage is going to be very lucrative. A useful additional revenue stream. I understand the government are already actively pursuing this.

It also means that the wellhead pressure can be significantly reduced.

Looks like a smart move.
Yes they have effectively diluted 50% (if everything goes through) but in exchange for buying 49% at a discount, which is a positive outcome. Most importantly they now have the cash resources and the motivation to get the plant up and running and funding to invest in other projects at a time that the government are motivated to look favourable at promoting UK production.
My gut feeling is that this puts Angus in a very strong position to 'prove' the plant fairly quickly and then a large acquirer will come in and buy the lot. We should get a decent premium and a nice exit.

I'm led to believe that it is anything more sinister than a couple of large ish shareholders (i.e. large retail punters) selling some of their position out of frustration with the lack of news flow from the management team. Volumes are so low that any selling or buying for that matter, has a major impact on the share price.

Virtually no news from Gobind and his team is incredibly damaging; they don't appear to consider it important to keep shareholders updated.

Fundamentally though: the fund is growing and is performing exceptionally well, they are in a strong sector and they have plenty of cash (probably too much). So nice and steady, albeit very conservative.

So excited about the upside of ALGW. Trading at 8 not so long ago, probably the last chance to get in at these levels. I've topped up. Looking for a multi bagger with positive news flow.

Some decent buys going through on a daily basis and price consolidaton, which is good to see. Looks like parties are continuing to build a stake. Feels like it will start to trickle up over the next week once excess stock has been hoovered up. When the news of the credit facility hits the share price should really pop. If the news was negative, then they would have had to have informed the market via an RNS. Looking forward to the next significant rise in the not to distant future. Price looks cheap at these levels.

Somebody is still building a large stake in the background. It's very interesting to watch how the market makers are playing this one out. The next TR1 RNS will be enlightening. Once the news lands, it feels like ALGW is going to pop.

I'm loading up on some more. Won't be at these levels for long.

Looks like the early seller has started to dry up, I understand there was also a second seller who has cleared half of his large position to reduce exposure. Plenty of buys comingin in, my broker is looking for 8-10p over the next few working days.

*fewer typo. = *More larger investors and institutions
Should make it a lot more steady, as they will have done a hell of a lot more research and be confident in the fundamentals.

My broker, close to the deal said 1 big seller in the market closing out his position and driving the price down. Seems to be getting picked up with a nice steady stream of buys. Of all the Canabinoid stocks (I've done a few), this one appears to have the most substance, with fewer larger investors and institutions. Was always going to be a more patient play.

I hold a lot of these, I'm seeing increasing demand to secure large stakes. You will always see delayed large deals being worked through. It's not just about the imminent anticipated £80m-£100m investment, but the prospect of several follow up rounds of similar amounts. In a globally unstable environment, these sorts of investments provide a valuable alternative investment class, that is highly sought after. I'm looking for 30p over the next 18 months.

An AUM of £100m +, is the level at which wealth managers would tend to regard this sort of investment as investable. The larger the fund the more that can be invested. That's partly why the recent news was so important. Another £80m-£100m going into the fund (hopefully imminently), will be transformative. ALGW has reached a very important growth stage and could be on the brink of something really exciting.

Areed raaydaar:
My understanding is that the entity building a stake is not the TR1 and therefore not related to the RNS today. The TR1 announcement is however a strong endorsement ALGW.
There isn't much free stock as, in general, the large holders, are holding tight, as are many of the smaller investors in anticipation of continued positive news flow. The current share price looks low and any free stock is getting mopped up.
Exciting times.

A large buyer has been trying to mop up a load of stock towards the end of the day. Prepared to pay a premium to buy a decent stake, hence the rise.

A super positive signal.

£100k bill came in from the builder end of month, just needed to free up some cash. Loads of demand as there is a shortage of free stock. Still hold a large position as I believe ALGW is at a very exciting phase of its development. Looking for 10p-12p plus in the relatively short term and a multi bagger as the deals keep coming in.

Excellend analysis Giles. Super excited about the next announcement, which will be transformative for the company and the share price. I believe that it will be the first of many deals that will provide a stable footing for exponential growth.

It's a pleasure to see a company deliver on it's promises. ALGW is due to benefit from a a major re-rating.

It's highly unlikely that you will ever be right.