The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Spot on Wolfofsomewhere (or should I say Brian !)
A tweet on the Harvest web site today reflects on the continuing growth of the fertiliser market. Now this sentence is interesting.
"Sales for our KP Fertil® organic multi-nutrient remineraliser, rose up 104% yoy in 2021."
So 54, 115 x 2.04 gives 110,394 tons sold. Wonder when they will announce this after they realise they've let the cat out of the bag !
I'm with you SmallJ. The last two rns's suggest a change of strategy by the company. I can't see either announcement adding to next year's balance (as with the limestone project) and just wish the company would go full steam ahead on Arupa and selling it by the bucket load (no pun intended) I'm still convinced they will achieve 95 -100kt sales this year and would hopefully announce a guideline target of 160kt next year. It just seems we are taking our eye of the ball and for that reason I am still unwilling to add to my large holding. word on advfn is that the sites were purchased for $9,000 so Luis Azevedo is getting a handsome return. I would be happy to see my HMI shares enjoy a fraction of that return. Wonder what we will wake up to tomorrow ?
So by October 16th this year, Harvest achieved its target figure of 80kt sales. Assuming the sales price was 200 real/ton this equates to 16 million real. Verde have just released their 3Q results today showing revenue of 45 million real in the third quarter. Why is this interesting for us ? Well, last year's 3Q revenues were 14.5 million real - a 206% increase. The company's original guidance of R$50 million has now been upgraded to R$110 million for 2021. They are now constructing a second operational plant as market demand has outstripped Plant 1's operational capacity.
No matter what you think of Brian McMasters or the company's past performance the constantly increasing demand for an alternate to today's sky high fertiliser price is not going to go away overnight (nor indeed next year) and, like the chip shortage which is having a huge effect on car production, Harvest Minerals will be a beneficiary of this demand. I would say we are currently about two years behind Verde, but their figures clearly show 200kt sales are possible next year and certainly at a higher price of 200R$
Factor in the 10% saving from the new solar cell infrastructure and 2022 should prove to be the breakout year for Harvest Minerals. Indeed, given that the chart shows sales of 14 kt in the last quarter of 2020 I would expect a company announcement before year end showing sales of 100kt (20kt in 2.5 months should be achievable) Worth hanging around for bopd !
It would be wrong to suggest he's lost all credibility John. Granted, he has made mistakes (the partnerships, the money spent on other fertiliser projects) but he has delivered what is now looking like a 100% increase year on year and the mine has now quadrupled in size. I, and I would hope the majority of the long term holders, believe there has been solid progress this year and a combination of new markets, returning customers, a growing customer base and continuing high fertiliser prices will see further growth again next year. Brian will be just as eager as the rest of us to see 17p again. Yes, I am aware he has recouped the majority of his share purchase money but professional pride will spur him on and deliver a solid growth business which he will then sell on. I know the wait is frustrating but we do have the firm foundations for solid growth in the coming years. I am 1p away from breakeven and intend adding to my 2m shares next year on signs of an improving balance sheet.
Judging by the time and the rise, I think there's a strong possibility that we will be mentioned in the press this weekend. I've seen this happen with other shares and it's usually around Friday lunchtime that word gets out about what's coming up in the weekend press. If that weren't to be the case then I'm still happy with the (long overdue) rise today. The company is making good progress, let's hope this can be maintained next year.
Not sure if this has been posted, but new six minute video on YouTube, worth a look and you can get English subtitles although I couldn't get subtitles for Brian when he appears near the end of the video !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx1lY2tSVUw
I can't see them building another storage facility next year sharegar, the plant is still capable of producing 3 times this years sales. Just get the price up next year and assuming a 60% increase in sales again a target of 160kt will be fine by me. I would still rather see the company initiate a share buyback scheme rather than issue a dividend - would return a much higher value in the future.
Embarrassing yourself again smalleyus. That's the figure that has already been invoiced and delivered! As I've always said, they will hit 6 figures by year end. Will the share price rise ? Probably not -only cash in the bank will get institutional investors back into this company, private investors alone will not get it back to 17p. Still holding 1% but have not bought a single share (nor sold) for six months until I see the cash balance rising. Given the global rise in inflation, I would hope they raise their prices too - on 1/1/2022 !
Three very good posts yesterday outlining the reasons why the share price is stalling. I had hoped that the company would have been doing media interviews to outline the company's progress, but I suspect they are afraid of being questioned about the company's accounting policies and how it prices its sales. Until the market receives clarity as to what price the company is selling the stuff and how much income they are receiving by the end of the reporting period then we will never crack 5p. It's all well and good for the company to suggest we ask questions, the main questions on everyones lips are selling price (in American dollars) and cash balance. Verde agritech are on course to attain Br real 90 million sales this year and are constructing their second plant which is capable of producing 1.2 MILLION tons of fertiliser. HMI is a minnow by comparison and is quite frankly going nowhere. If the policy is to sell the stuff cheap and attract repeat orders then I would be expecting much higher volume. Looks like mid to end of next year (again!) until we see further progress on the share price.
It's not quite that simple Source888 You need several tons of kp fertil reminiraliser to replace 1 ton of traditional fertiliser, I believe one video quoted 7 to 1. It still works out cheaper than fertilisers however. Volume should be good too, as you say.