With respect Trans, “No” is pretty much the only answer that they could give that wouldn’t been viewed as inside information. If they said yes, that’s market sensitive and would land someone in deep trouble.
I’m not doubting your integrity, but even if the real answer was “yes” they’d still have to say “no” lol.
Hi Surfit
I agree, I think we would all like to see some numbers around the renewables/hydrogen parts of the business, but as you rightly said in one of your earlier posts, at least some of the proceeds from any Farm Out will undoubtedly be filtered through to progress those other 2 “pillars”.
I feel there is a ‘running order’ tho, in that until we/the BoD can quantify what proceeds are forthcoming from the farm out, it’s very difficult to allocate portions of it elsewhere to other areas of the business, meaning it is impossible to quantify what further funding is required (and available) to make up balance.
I think we need to be patient on the gas side, in order to then budget (and negotiate) correctly on the rest.
Regards
Morning Surfit
You said “ I am hoping he as learnt a lot but he is has changed ract on loans and used share raising as the way to get us over the line thus significantly diluting the SP.
Will he use the same time of fundraising for developing the energy elephant in Africa.”
Let me start by saying I know nothing about the Petra or it’s finances, but what I would say is, “ “dilution” although often much maligned and not popular with share holders, is, more often than not, the safest (if not the only) route for a company in exploration/development stage.
Let’s say for example Chariot had (even managed) managed to persuade someone to fund/loan Anchois exploration and development 2-3 years ago, with the expectation that 1st production would be mid 2025? How much collateral would be required to secure the loan, at what interest rate would it have been agreed at, how would interest be paid for, but MOST importantly, what would happen if timescales slipped by a year (due to something like another Covid) and the loan couldn’t be repaid on time? What happens to the asset? At what price, and how big a dilution is then required to fund/pay off the loan (even if someone’s willing to invest)?
I’ve seen plenty companies take out loans, see timelines slip, share prices tank, and then have to resort to CLN’s aka Death Spiral Funding to stay afloat.
I appreciate dilution isn’t pleasant, but the alternatives can be catastrophic imo.
Hi Surfit.
I take your point(s) but isn’t the “lack of knowledge and expertise” where Total Eren (at least partly) come in, and why we partnered with them on both projects?
Re the siphoning off of funds to other areas of the business, yes, I expect that will be the case to some extent, but unless you/we are expecting a one off divi from Farm Out funds (which I’m not), that seems the natural and sensible use for those funds, ASSUMING no further funds are required to bring gas into production. Or am I missing something?
Regards
Whimax
We’ll have to agree to disagree there Surfit.
For me, the focus for 99% of investors at this point is the gas, and as you rightly say, although we’re not quite out of the woods in respect, I think it’s a ‘stick on’ that funding/farm out/FID will be sorted very soon.
AP said that the gas is the focus for the next 6 months, and that’s the catalyst for new money to come in to this imo.
The rest will follow in due course, but it’s not what’s deterring volume.
Both statements are equally true and correct, and the time line hasn’t changed since either or this statements were made.
Your infatuation with the micro movements in the SP is ridiculous. When we get the news we are expecting, the price will change. There is nothing you, me or the BoD can do about it until they hit one of the milestones they have set out and announce it.
If the Farm Out news is announced and the price doubles to 30p, will you sell?
I won’t, because the risk is gone and it’s a waiting game again, until it either doubles again on the next milestone announcement, or it drifts back to mid 20’s as people get bored and chase rainbows elsewhere for a while. I have targets, but they’re all significantly higher than 30p.
I dare say you will start another countdown tho, and keep us posted on the SP movements every hour or 2 in the meantime.
Anyway. GL
Yes, he is wrong, because he says “ Gas project is the only near term cash generator and that is aprox 2 years from realising production and cash flow.”
That’s simply not true. A Farm Out, which we’ve just been told is pretty close, is an obvious “cash generator”.
Surfit, you say….
“General assessment as per ususal: Gas project is the only near term cash generator and that is aprox 2 years from realising production and cash flow.”
That’s not true at all, because we’ve pretty much just been told that we’ve very close to a Farm Out which will generate significant cash in the near term. This would remove virtually any remaining risk or a further cash call and WILL have a significant positive impact on the SP.
From AP: "......now are in the final stages of a farmout partnering process on Anchois and the Lixus and Rissana licences, which has been a very competitive process."
From DW: " The offers, should they proceed to completion, anticipate that Chariot would retain a material stake in the licences and that there would be an upfront cash consideration. Further, any farmout may provide the financing of the anticipated development capital expenditure to first gas and updates will be provided as soon as possible."
You seem to have a pretty negative view Surfit (for whatever reason) and I appreciate there are risks here (as with any AIM investment) but you seem to be (and have been doing so for some time) trying to convince us (or yourself) that nothing will change, with regards the share price, until production begins. That’s simply wrong and misleading imo.
Your investment decision could come down to these 2 paragraphs.
A) The partnering process has been competitive; with approximately 40 companies having accessed a data room and multiple offers were received from significantly larger E&P companies. This process both technically validated Chariot's development plan as well as the exploration potential within Lixus and Rissana and selection of the preferred bidder is now in the final stages. The offers, should they proceed to completion, anticipate that Chariot would retain a material stake in the licences and that there would be an upfront cash consideration. Further, any farmout may provide the financing of the anticipated development capital expenditure to first gas and updates will be provided as soon as possible.
OR
B)
-" If partnering fails to complete, management is confident that alternate financing options are available to fund ongoing project work and overheads. In the event that neither a partnering agreement or alternative financing is concluded, the Group has sufficient cash to meet its corporate overhead until Q4 2023."
Based on where we are, and how long we’ve I’ve waited, I’m 100% in the “A)” camp.
GL all. Not long now imo.