Member Info for Whatidsaytothat

What a box of frogs the current exec management team has inherited. In addition to substandard financial controls it now seems the previous lot overpaid on the acquisition of In Motion. I strongly suspect that for some time, they were also over bidding on new sites based on over ambitious footfall asumptions. Is this the difference between believing in the strengths of your own business model and believing in your own BS

In fairness to current management, they didnt cause this mess and they can't be held responsible for the knock on effects of USA gov actons. They have also been decisive and canny in acting now, in presenting what is a distress situation as a "macro economic" led event. Very smart, and significantly better than waiting six months, then have to launch a genuine rescue rights issue on the back of a leverage (and possibly other) covenant breach with bank lenders.

It is also good to see management put their own money on the line. Great commitment and all credit to them.

So i guess we now fall into two camps. On the one hand, those like me who like what they see from the new management team but feel there are too many unanswered questions to work out the true underlying profitability of this business. And on the other hand, those who believe they have enough information to believe this is the bottom and it can only get better from here.

One question needs to be asked though. What is it that makes WHS special. When bidding for renewal of existing sites, or for new ones, they will need to convince landlords that WHS can pay the highest, sustainable rent relative to other bidders. So what is their USP? What is it that will set them apart from their competitors. If you can't answer this question with confidence, the next best strategy is to flip a coin and hope for the best

I also use an index, because its my pension an i prefer the balance of risk/reward it delivers, accepting that nothing is guaranteed. It covers a range of global intruments and markets

About 8 years ago i thought we were approaching a peak (just as i do now). China was showing clear signs of slowing down and i pulled out of the index only to found myself about 10% worse off about 12-18 months later. Then covid came, and even though i reunvested at below half way through the recovery, i still would have been slightly better off had i never come out in the first place.

I doubt however that governments will have scope to take the same actons next time, and recovery will take longer.

As a precautionary measure, i just recently down graded my fund risk profile from high to medium and set aside sufficient cash to pay my monthly pension for the next three years

Im sticking with CBG which is an exception to my general rule. It has worked out well so far and thanks to the Supreme Court hearing, there is sound downside protection yet at the current discount to tangible book value could (and in my view will) deliver signigicant potential upside. i'm now expecting it will be around this time next year before we have full clarity on its true value

"Viig direct how are you today?"

He's in good mood today cos his dad promissed to take him to Go Bananas after school

Ebbs and flows, an interestomg dilema - to hold or trade? We know this share is volatile and should therefore be a good one to trade, but how do you know when to step in or out. I've tried in the past and failed, leading me to step back and resist from inteferring.

It has also been interesting to read some views posted here based on chart analysis, which have proved to be hopelessly off the mark. So for my own peace of mind i'm going to stick to sitting on my hands until i can see some further evidence either way, as to whether this management team can improve the underlying trading performance as i believe it should be achievable. In the meantime, to anyone who fancies their chances on trading this share, i'd ask "how lucky do you feel punk"

Cheer up chid/birdsong, things always look not so bad after a nice cup of tea and a digestive.

"Do you think we’ll see any sort of Divi this November"

Analyst forecasts as collated by the company (search Close Bros Analyst coverage and consensus) indicate a 10p dividend this year at the higher end of forecast, which is potentially possible based on where they are tracking at H1. We will have a clearer view on release of Q3 results later this month

I think everyone know my views by now. Bar some unexpected developments, thel claims issue was pretty much done and over when the supreme court found in favour if the lenders. Whether £850 is paid to consumers or £500 is paid to the FOS will im sure have some impact, but stepping back from those albeit very interesting details for a moment, i feel comfortable the provision raised is adequate and its now all about improving return on capital/equity

Given that a good deal of this is achievable through cost reduction as opposed to income growth i feel pretty positive as we currently stand

.....and it was returning capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends

Which makes sense, since it was making roughly the same amount of pretax profit 15 years ago as is expected this year

Keep 'em coming Knot. Obfuscate as much as you like

I venture to suggest these results reflect a business struggling to make headway. Group turnover up 5%, yet group trading profit down 20%, seemingly caused by increased costs and store refurbishments, both of which are features of the retail sector, so nothing exceptional here.

Free cashflow negative £60m. Net debt increased to x2.9 EBITDA which is at least ×1 too high for a retailer. Dividend suspended.

And all this before any potential adverse impact on airline passenger numbers due higher oil prices/cost flying. Hopefully the new management will do a good job but it will be tough slog

....further meaningful uplift in the sp

As ive suggested a few times, my view is the potential for sp improvement is more dependent on management improving the underlying trading performance rather than throwing out aspects of the redress scheme although that wohkd be most grateful.

It is no coincidence that TNAV is around half that of othe main uk banks, as is CBG's RoTE. If ma ageme t can get RoTE up from c7% to a double digit number (as they arenaimig to do) then the sp could get to £10.

Once that direction of travel is supported by trading updates we coukd see some

Chid i whilst i agree with your view on Trumper, i fail to see the connection with CBG. Furthermore, i'd much prefer you to leave leave political discourse off this board.

For anyone who may not be aware, CBG Investor Relations page contains a summary of analysts financial forecasts for the financial years of 2026, 27 and 28. It looks to me like operating profit for the first half of 2026 financial year is tracking ahead of the highest forecast by virtue of better expenses and impairmemt charges. Income is tracking the mean.

The highest forecast predicts a dividend of 10p for 2026

Also worth noting the company's most recent statement of CET 1 being @ 14% after the latest increase in car finance provision vs a target minimum of 13%. The difference equates to £100m.

So lots of surplus capital will be available to distribute to shareholders so long car finance compensation remains broadly in line with provisioning and assuming management keep a steady hand on the performance tiller

I think time will show the importance of the supreme court decison even if the compensation scheme may end up more generous than some had hoped

Very good summary Liberty2. Right on the mark

But you seem to think everyone invested here, which doesnt include you, doesnt understand your point or indeed see it as a possible outcome. The lenders will clearly weigh up the pros and cons of each option recognising there are costs and risks associates with both. It will be a rational, business decision, taken in the best interests if their shareholders which at the end of the day makes it all about the share price.

"Well at least now as the wheels have come adrift here again we could perhaps join up and write a Mama Mia type play or film using Dylan songs and lyrics to make our fortune. Or is investing in one lame duck enough".

Well Chid, heres to Bob Dylan and all that conspiracy stuff. Your desperate need for validation produces a flurry of confident downbeat gloom whenever the outlook takes a turn for the worse, yet it always seem to precede a notable pick up in the sp. It must be very frustrating for you

Great work Knot, you've got to share this work with UK Finance

"As WB said do not buy share that you are not happy to hold for 5 years"

Just an observation, but anyone who was happy to hold Ocado shares for the last 5 years has lost 90% of their investment. Losses continue to pile up and the company many years away from making a profit. Future viability is completely dependent on signing up more retailers. It could happen but equally it might not. A complete punt. One for the brave. Good luck