Member Info for WG818

Mr Singhie

I understand the concept perfectly. It’s just the fact that it’s not what is happening. Try reading note 5 from the annual account again!

“Under the swap contract, AWB3 will pay METS the floating price while METS will pay AWB3 the fixed price on the sale of gas from the field”

Note the last words “FROM THE FIELD”

And then I will point out again for you .

“In the event that the group does not meet it production timeline, the swaps will crystalise as a liability at the dates at the proposed periods of gas production in the swap agreements”

So you are just plain wrong and gallder is giving out figures on gas that hasn’t been produced!!

And what exactly are“Deviant affiliations” I think you better buy yourself a better dictionary!!

Mr Singhie.

You really are a laugh a minute. Under your scenario that Angus has to go to the open market to buy the extra gas to make up hedge 2, higher gas prices are actually a bad thing at present.
Of course you’re completely wrong on that one as the annual accounts show!

They have also moved the forward month today! Let’s see what happens shall we .

Dear me Donk.

You have excelled yourself. My history is there for all to see and I have never said any of the things on your list!

As for bunny boiler! Well your history shows a fairly unsettling pattern when it comes to stalking me!!

Mmm yes very convincing Push!! So that trade of 500k you took this morning was part of your 25% trading pot was it?? And the one s that you will take at under 1.4 would also be?

Point in fact. Just read your saviour’s last post. He has made “allegedly £27k trading! Yet ultra positive in his posts! Who’s the bad guy again?

On the contrary mwshep2. If you check my history I usually back up my points with links and have been right at nearly every point!! Much to the annoyance of the ramp squad. I in fact post so us “ mug punters” don’t get pick pocketed!!
Try re-reading my posts and come back when you realise I’m usually correct in my warnings to be cautious posts!…..your verging on libel by the way!!

It’s a shame UK natural gas has hit another year low then push isn’t it. 89p and dropping!

Mr Singhie

You posted

“Take the 3.3p that is on offer and allow the Board of directors to retire in comfort and for the shareholders to walk away with a theoretical win scenario,”

But there isn’t an offer is there! You presented it as fact!……that’s market abuse my friend!!

Mmm. Take the offer Singhie?? Either you are committing market abuse rules with the penalties that go with it as that would be insider knowledge…..or you’re just guessing and making stuff up as usual.

Best you clarify which!!

I think you need to re-read the date of the annual report gallder and then re-read the text.
The annual report was written 6 months after 1st gas so why would they be referring to 1st gas as it had already been achieved? Secondly it says “ the swaps will crystallise as a liability at
“THE DATES AT THE PROPOSED PERIODS OF GAS PRODUCTION”
The proposed period being Jan to March for the first missed hedge period @ £4.38 a therm
Then the second which they have also now missed of April to June for the second missed production period @ £3.15 a therm.

So no the production timetable does not refer to 1st gas.

Further more in the first paragraph of note 26 it states “The group do not use financial instruments for speculative purposes”

Robday

I have taken the comfy into consideration in my figures. (It’s well below 120 barrels now though) according to the NSTA website. I also took water disposal costs, OPEX , CAPEX and the fact that they have just been forced to take a £3 million loan out at 19% interest into consideration!!!!……they also have other “assets “ that need paying for sitting gathering dust to add to the costs.

HITS

Unfortunately the annual statement says that production volumes have everything to do with the hedge.

Note 25

“In the event that the group does not meet its production timetable, the swaps will crystallise as a liability at the dates at the proposed periods of gas production in the swap agreements “

As the secondary hedges values were £4.380 in the first quarter and £3.1500 on the second quarter this makes a huge difference as to if the company is actually losing or making money. Gallders figures include the first and second hedges in his calculations and Singhie seems to think they can make the difference up on the open market.
What we know is that they are just managing to cover the first hedge which they only get 0.3755p a therm for April to June. They are 100% losing money at that rate.

What source documents by the way?
Link please!

You mean Gallder that you had an argument with about the first missed hedge??

You are assuming that this is a normal hedge agreement. It is not! It’s an arrangement taken out with the company who also lent them £12 million!!
It also relates to the first hedge from July and August that they also missed.
Then you can add to this that the recent RNS gives details of them fulfilling only the first tranche of the contracted months, and finally if your assertion is correct then they wouldn’t have needed to take that eye watering £3 million loan a couple of weeks ago as they would have been quids in on the £4 plus extra hedge, if your scenario was correct.

The annual accounts are clear. They have failed to fulfill the production target, and Mercuria (who hold all the cards) will be a couple of million better of due to this further delay.

Really Singhie?
And where did you get this information from?….or is this just wishful thinking on your part?

My information came from published company accounts.

Yes it could be back up, but historically as we move into the warmer months it falls considerably though doesn’t it??

Keep pretending that the delays don’t matter all you like. Every day that don’t produce above the hedge ( the first one) @ 37p a therm is it? They are loosing money. As for the Second hedge! Well as they missed the production target, the annual accounts are clear that that will be crystallised, so no £3 plus to come from that revenue should they actually start producing in the next 2 months!!

That was a very short night out push!…..a bit like your incredibly short 2 week holiday away from commenting….lasted about 6 hours didn’t it!!

I see uk natural gas finished at a year’s low today 94.7 p a therm. Wasn’t it you who assured us it wouldn’t go below £1??

I’m not sure you’re the best to take advice from Mr008. One of the worst swing traders ever seen. You’ll be giving tips to back hill sixteen next time it runs!!

It could just be the fact that SF4 is the well that produces the water. They might simply have been playing with the chokes on the wells to reduce water cut and that’s affected the readings?

Blimey Howey!
Carry on pointing out the bleeding obvious company floors and posters misleading comments (like I have done with you) for the last year or so, and you will be joining me under that rock that you so rudely referred to!!