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Merry Christmas everyone. Its been a pleasure chatting discussing ASOS’s future this year. Time for us all to relax with family now, ready to start debating ASOS’s new years fortunes in 7 days time :) Have a lovely one all.
Last time the sp moved from this region (circa £4) to £15 was February 2010 to December 2010. Different point in time I know and a different business for so many reasons but 10 months to go from £4 to £15 shows you what is possible given the right growth and market conditions etc. You have to dream! :)
I’m sat here with SJ - waiting for £15. We’ve been saying it for a long time and I’m confident we’ll get there. I agree with blabla “the turnaround works and we revert back to 10-15 pounds somewhere in the near future. Turnaround does not work and ASOS is in deep debt/cash trouble and SP will stay at current prices or even lower”. Impossible to predict which way this will go although if sustained profitability is achieved the breaks will be off. We do know that the clothing market is growing and online growth is here to stay, so as long as asos get their slice of the pie, we should be on the rise ijn2024-2025.
The difference in rise yesterday was due to the US factor imo. Boohoo has been clear the US is a huge target market for pretty little thing and has invested accordingly . asos has gone the other way. I think that was reflected in yesterday’s movements at least.
LWHL and Agazzi, £4 or £5 is way off the mark imo. I’m not saying this through rose tinted glasses, but because the book value is far north of those values and you have to take into account the largest holders. Putting MA to one side, Anders would never agree to this imo and if we look at £10 achieved earlier this year on next to no news, I think there is no chance of this happening personally. Each to their own.
Positive I would say knowbody. Near 70 million views (best in 3 months). Traffic for Germany 23% & France 16% up. Theres been lots of articles suggesting ASOS has lost its relevance etc and I’ve become tired of them tbh. Nonsense in my view. The number of customers visiting (touching nearly 70 million) doesn’t paint this picture. Too easy to write these articles (which are currently two to a penny) when profits have suffered for a multitude of reasons. Imagine when inventory is under control, debt is in hand and cashflow is restored to a more respectable level. Decent profit will be there again. Our customer base hasn’t dwindled to the degree many suggest and nor has the appeal of asos imo. Yes shein has eaten market share, but that’s across a whole host of retailers and there is plenty of business for all imo. There’s still a long slog ahead but I have complete confidence that plenty of upside is to come. It went over a tenner in February on little. Imagine when there are cold hard facts of the turnaround working. We will see a lot higher then imo.
Https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2023/11/black-friday-online-traffic/
Simon under what scenario would a 40% premium be accepted? It could have been an outside possibility if it wasn’t for anders major holding, but even then I would be doubtful. Completely understand the risk here but equally this isn’t a tin pot business. As I’ve posted many times, until this year and last, the company never failed to post a profit. Asos is returning to profitability and margins will increase, albeit slowly & slim to begin with. Let’s not forget, we are talking about a multi billion turnover company, and whilst turnover may be vanity, equally, with tens of millions of customers and asos being such a large business, there are countless tweaks the company can make to realise profit. It’s a luxury most large companies have. Yes, the balance sheet remains dicey - but fcf will improve. Top shop - often referred to as the family jewels - may or may not be sold but tbh the company was making profits long before acquiring them. It’s not doomsday if they sell. Emotion sets in when the sp is painstakingly low, but let’s not forget, the company has many options and rose to a tenner on next to nothing earlier this year. In 2025/2026 we’ll be in a completely difference space, I’m sure of it.
Won’t be a low ball offer Simon imo. Doesn’t make any sense. The picture about the foreseeable I do agree with though. 2025 we’ll have lift off IF the ship is turned around and making decent profits.
Plenty of time yet Hexam. Projected period of the growth plan is up to 2029 unless I’m mistaken? Not to say it won’t be rewritten before but I think it’s highly unlikely to be altered in the next three years.