Look out luxury24 Jul 2018 15:13
LUXURY STOCKS COULD DROP 30 PCT IN TRADE WAR, SAYS UBS (1034 GMT)
It's a bleak prognosis but UBS (LSE: 0QNR.L - news) ' analysts say that European luxury stocks could fall as much
as 30 percent in a full-on trade war.
Their worst case trade war scenario is one where around 100bps is wiped off global GDP
growth and global equities drop more than 20 percent.
"This trade war is unlikely to have much first-order impact (sector production is largely in
Europe, and pricing power is high), but demand is highly dependent on wealth effects, and the
U.S. and China are key markets," UBS analysts say in a note, adding that the two regions account
for around 55 percent of sector sales.