RE: No new oil/gas licenses with this government13 Mar 2026 11:23
With respect to the current policy discussion, there is an irony that perhaps deserves a little more reflection.
If the government’s strategy is indeed to refrain from issuing new exploration licences while allowing production from existing fields to continue, the inevitable consequence is a gradual constriction of future supply capacity. In such an environment, the strategic value of already-licensed assets inevitably increases.
And importantly, this does not apply only to fields currently in production. It also extends to licences that have already been granted but are not yet producing. Those licences represent future supply that has already passed the regulatory threshold. If new licences become increasingly scarce, the relative value of those existing development opportunities may rise significantly.
Scarcity has always been one of the most powerful drivers of value in the energy sector. When fewer new licences are issued, the embedded optionality within existing licences — producing or not yet producing — becomes correspondingly more valuable, particularly where the regulatory pathway is already established.
In other words, the policy framework being described may unintentionally strengthen the economics of companies that already hold the right to develop and produce.
For patient investors, the implication is straightforward:
time and discipline may prove more valuable than reaction.
As the industry adjusts to a tighter licensing environment, it would not be surprising to see the market gradually reassess the strategic importance of these existing licences. In that context, today’s broker targets could ultimately appear rather conservative — perhaps even little more than a peppercorn relative to the value that scarcity may one day confer.
Sometimes the most valuable resource is not simply oil or gas —
it is the licence to produce it, today or tomorrow.
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