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I have been observing since the SP has hit in range of 0.0095 to 0.0105 millions getting sold.
Who's selling?
1 Someone bought last year at 0.0095 out of anger frustration or depression.
2. Free shares given by UKOG.
3. People just selling at loss.
Who's benefitting from these sells any clues anyone does not make sense to sell at this price unless you are guaranteed entry to lower than the present price.
I'm just baffled looking at the large sells on the chart as I dont rely on these as they are based on price rather than actual transactions.
I dont think banks lend money just based on CPR or reserves etc as there is no guarantee oil will come out. They normally lend money based on track record and past profits which we have ZERO.
Therefore I will be in cuckoo land to think banks gonna lend say 5m per well when there are no profits and you dont own HH 100% as everytime all idiots will have to agree on everything otherwise we end up like Brexit our MPs dont give a shit about the country nor party.
Once we deliver profit for atleast 1 year with ongoing production then maybe bank will throw money at us not otherwise.
We may get more dilution before rig never say never happened last summer 3 dilution rounds.
Why bother about debt or PE that's for successful companies not for our Mickey Mouse ukog.
PE is 5 or 500 does not matter what matters is the SP 3p that's my target will be happy with 2.5p too so just pray to God we get there and dont bother about the dumbos with their arguments. Not worth wasting your breath here.
I remember same time last year same place people arguing ukog will be self funded with EWT unfortunately has not happened due to multiple reasons.
A. Dont hold 100% of HH.
B. Flow not high enough.
C. Have too many interest in different places so money is diverted.
D. No profits yet.
4 wells will be funded via dilution or loan if they could get it. If they could get all the wells in full flow over 12 months then FY20 could be partially self funded.
WIZ
I'm alive on the hope that this happens again from 0.95 to 2.94 that's when I bought at 2.84.
I also hope with the rig news like BB goes up to 10p if not 10p then 4p because now market understands the trick.
If this can go just on speculation or anticipation to 1.92 in February I'm sure atleast 2p is achievable with rig news.
Then I will get rid of some of my investment wait for 1p and reload it to get my average down.
I can bet my house that once the SP hits 2p or 3p will comeback to 1p this is the story of this stock.
Goes up for 4 days comes down rest of the year.
Wiz
You may have more than 4.98 some even have 18m plus but it also depends what price you paid. if I paid 1p I would be more than not happy I would say but could live with it.
Any ukog presentation dont even go there some presentation say site still there but plugged away eg Markwood site.
BB was a disaster only HH has been half decent.
Until anything happens to other sites eg tangible results you cant count on it.
Other companies have been happily selling it to ukog for buying if they were that good.
Another thing is we will get diluted to heaven for anything to happen or start on the other sites.
SS said the money from oil sales covers horizontal side track expenses now he says that significantly covers EWT costs.
It's like saying BREXIT leaflet
ONCE IN A LIFETIME VOTE AND GOVT WILL IMPLEMENT THE RESULT.
3 YEARS DOWN THE LINE LEAVERS didnt know what they were voting and looking at 2ND REFERENDUM LOSERS VOTE. So dont bother telling anyone what the presentation says as before this one of the RNS says SPUD for horizontal in early 2019 and we are looking at June/July.
SS must be telling us all the fairy tales hes telling his kids probably thinking we are babies.
Wiz
I am keeping my expectations low or bare minimum to avoid disappointment. What has triggered me is all the rates announced are over few hours then extrapolated to a daily figure which is misleading and I have only realized after dumping my hard earned over 100k into it and swimming in deep underwater for the past 1 year.
My expectations is not 3p, 4p or 10p. If I get offered 2.25p tomorrow morning 8am I'm out dont care if it becomes 10p 5 minutes later or 5 years later.
If I somehow with greed stayed to see the horizontal flow test and if they get the target flow rates the SP will be rerated quickly but the market does not believe that's why we have not seen 2.5p since 10 September 2018.
Also we could get water which we have not got until now so touch wood. I dont know man sadly I was too greedy and fucked myself up.
I have destroyed my life investing into this one thing my kids will learn and take away from me dont invest in Mickey Mouse oil companies from Aims.
WIZ
10 September 18
Independent oil consultants Xodus Group's ("Xodus") analysis of flow and pressure data interprets that further HH-1 Portland vertical well optimisation could achieve a forecast sustainable initial 24/7 pumped rate of around 362 barrels of oil per day ("bopd")* when full scale long-term production commences, exceeding original estimates. This analysis is key as it establishes the absolute flow potential of the Portland reservoir for future production wells.
· Given the knowledge of the Portland's true flow potential, plans are now being formulated to drill either the HH-1z sidetrack or HH-2 new drill as a horizontal Portland appraisal well, with a targeted* sustainable daily production rate of 720 to 1,080 bopd, 2 to 3 times the forecast calculated* HH-1 vertical well rate of 362 bopd. All planning permissions, Environment Agency permits and the HH-2 well cellar are in place for a horizontal well. If successful it is envisaged that all future Portland production will be via horizontal wells.
· The Company's economic modelling indicates that HH-1 Portland is robustly commercial at even the lowest observed sustainable daily rate of 140 bopd and at oil prices below $60 per barrel. A formal Horse Hill Developments Ltd ("HHDL") declaration of Portland commerciality is therefore expected shortly following receipt of Xodus' final connected oil volume analysis. A planning application for long term production is planned to be submitted to Surrey County Council shortly, prior to the completion of the forthcoming Kimmeridge EWT programme. Full-scale long-term production, targeted for 2019, is subject to co-venturer and regulatory approvals.
Additional EWT Information
In order to calculate the Portland oil volume connected to, or "seen by" HH-1, steady state flow conditions were required (i.e. stable; oil rate, gas oil ratio, bottom hole and tubing head pressures). Consequently, post perforation, production was restricted to sustainable 24/7 rates of between 140-160 bopd. It should be noted that these rates do not reflect the Portland's full flow potential that could be achieved either via successful further optimisation of the HH-1 vertical well or a new horizontal production well.
During these sustained flow periods, intermittent natural flow was evident, with metered rates at the separator exceeding the nominal pumped volume by up to 50 bopd, with the highest rate recorded of 191 bopd. Gas rates at the test separator and through the enclosed flare remained broadly constant at around 15,000 cubic feet per day.
These are the real numbers also this is when I bought more at 2.65 last time I saw 2.5p on the share price.
18 Oct 18
As reported on 10 September, the HH-2 horizontal well has a targeted* sustainable daily Portland production rate of 720 to 1,080 bopd, 2 to 3 times the calculated* sustainable vertical well rate of 362 bopd derived from the EWT programme.
WIZ
I have 4.98m shares so it's in my interest that the more oil and tankers better for me however it's my bad i did not read any of the previous RNS with more details and just read the bullet points and SP looked cheap compared to the past 10p.
Now I'm deep underwater so i have been reading every sentence and trying to work out the real or hidden meaning behind it like an alien who does not know English.
Portland RNS 18 July 2018
The highest recorded hourly metered rate to date, equates to an implied daily rate of 352 bopd and was achieved using a 20/64" choke, a notably more restricted setting than the 64/64" choke used in 2016.
Several periods of sustained natural flow (i.e. flow to surface without pumping) have also been observed over the past few days, with the most productive period producing an implied daily dry oil rate of 228 bopd over a two-hour period.
This is again implied not the real flow over 24 hours.
3 August 2018
Portland short-term high rate tests achieve stable implied equivalent daily pumped rates of 401 and 414 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") of dry 36 API oil over two periods of 6 and 2 hours, respectively. Maximum instantaneous half-hourly pumped rates of 441 and 470 bopd.
The maximum rate recorded was limited by the rod pump's maximum rate capacity of approximately 470 bopd. Higher capacity rod pump sourced and mobilised for use at HH-1.
Again numbers are based on few hours not 24 hours.
Listen to Barney Gray independent gas analyst who's more technical than all of us put together.
https://youtu.be/TSIsEfKAJd8
Read the RNS from October it states 140b a day is sufficient to be commercially viable.
Portland has never done more than 220b a day and max 352b was done over half hourly or 2 hourly basis which then extrapolated.
362 is extrapolated number not real.
I would love Portland to do 1000b a minute vertical but not going to happen.
Prudent management that's why the SP is 1p if it was real flow would be 2p or more.
Selling now hoping to recover elsewhere is the dumbest thing ever someone could do not saying will not work but too much risk.if you have a large holding.
If you stayed in until now give another 2 months and you may be able to exit in 2 months time.
I have tried in the past and failed and increased my loss so I wont bother.
Guys I tell you since my purchase of ukog I have visited my GP more than I visited him in 5 years put together.
I have 4.98m shares at a dumb price of 2.23.
My GP said sell it if you want to be alive or just dont look at it that will keep me alive.
You can get blood pressure and heart issues very quickly. Just stop worrying about the rig and whatever else.
At some point things will happen as what's gonna happen is it will add to frustration, anxiety and just overall ruin quality of life.
My wife is already fed up with me due to this so just relax and dont cause others to panic creating doubts in their minds.
We are already ruined I dont think there can be much worse.
SS options are available for less than present share price. I feel he hasnt used any of them thinking he doesn't deserve it as he hasnt delivered SP value to the shareholders that's only my view not necessarily correct.
If I was him I would have shamelessly took it as it's been given as incentive but it's his options up to him to take it or leave it.